Publikasjonsdetaljer
Tidsskrift: Communications Sustainability, vol. 1, 56, 2026
Doi: doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00064-4
Arkiv: hdl.handle.net/11250/5507057
Arkiv: nva.sikt.no/registration/019d902f161a-f9d43413-7c60-4db2-abff-f6c75a9ff0e7
Sammendrag:
Soil degradation threatens food security and environmental sustainability, yet future projections of it are rare. Using projections from 18 global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and land-use projections from the Land Use and Climate Across Scales Land Use Change (LUCAS LUC) dataset, we assess future soil vulnerability to degradation by linking a Soil Degradation Proxy (SDP) to climate, land-use, soil characteristics, and socio-economic factors at 7433 observation sites across Europe. We project that by 2071–2100, ~59% of sites may become more vulnerable under the high-emission scenario. Cold forest regions in northern Europe are projected to face increased degradation pressure by ~+0.04SDP. However, some European croplands may improve locally through conversion to secondary lands, reduced human pressures, and natural recovery processes. These regionally specific trends highlight that, while soil degradation remains a major threat, proactive land management can mitigate soil vulnerability under future climate trajectories.