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The AirGAM 2022r1 air quality trend and prediction model

Walker, Sam-Erik; Solberg, Sverre; Schneider, Philipp; Guerreiro, Cristina

This paper presents the AirGAM 2022r1 model – an air quality trend and prediction model developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) in cooperation with the European Environment Agency (EEA) over 2017–2021. AirGAM is based on nonlinear regression GAMs – generalised additive models – capable of estimating trends in daily measured pollutant concentrations at air quality monitoring stations, discounting for the effects of trends and time variations in corresponding meteorological data. The model has been developed primarily for the compounds NO2, O3, PM10, and PM2.5. Meteorological input data consist of temperature, wind speed and direction, planetary boundary layer height, relative and absolute humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation over the period considered. The exact set of meteorological variables used in the model depends on the compound selected for analysis. In addition to meteorological variables introduced in the model as covariates, i.e. explanatory variables for the concentration levels, the model also incorporates time variables such as the day of the week, day of the year, and overall time, which is related to the model's trend term. The trend analysis is performed at each station separately. Thus, the model only considers the temporal features of concentrations and meteorology at a station, rather than any spatial correlations or dependencies between stations. AirGAM is implemented using the R language for statistical computing and, in particular, the GAM package mgcv. In the model, meteorological and time covariates are represented and estimated as smooth nonlinear functions of the corresponding variables. Thus, the trend term is defined and estimated as a smooth nonlinear function of time over the period selected for analysis. Once fitted to training data, the model may be used as a prediction tool capable of predicting air pollutant concentrations for new sets of meteorological and time data which are not in the training set – e.g. for cross-validation or forecasting purposes. The model does not explicitly use emissions or background concentrations – these are sought to be implicitly represented through the estimated nonlinear relations between meteorology, time, and concentrations. In addition to meteorology-adjusted trends, the program also produces unadjusted trends – i.e. trends based on the same regression set-up but only including the time covariates. Both types of trends can be output in the same run, making it possible to compare them. Ideally, the meteorology-adjusted trend will show the trend in concentration mainly due to changes in emissions or physicochemical processes not induced by changes in meteorology. AirGAM has been developed and tested primarily in trend studies based on measurement data hosted by the EEA, including the AirBase data (before 2013) and the Air Quality e-Reporting (AQER) data from 2013 and onwards. Still, the model is general and could be applied in other regions with other input data. The EEA data provide daily or hourly surface measurements at individual monitoring stations in Europe. For input meteorological data, we extract time series from the gridded meteorological re-analysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for each monitoring station. The paper presents results with the model for all AirBase/AQER stations in Europe from the latest EEA trend study for 2005–2019.

2023

The alamar blue assay in the context of safety testing of nanomaterials

Longhin, Eleonora Marta; Yamani, Naouale El; Rundén-Pran, Elise; Dusinska, Maria

The Alamar Blue (AB) assay is widely used to investigate cytotoxicity, cell proliferation and cellular metabolic activity within different fields of toxicology. The use of the assay with nanomaterials (NMs) entails specific aspects including the potential interference of NMs with the test. The procedure of the AB assay applied for testing NMs is described in detail and step-by-step, from NM preparation, cell exposure, inclusion of interference controls, to the analysis and interpretation of the results. Provided that the proper procedure is followed, and relevant controls are included, the AB assay is a reliable and high throughput test to evaluate the cytotoxicity/proliferation/metabolic response of cells exposed to NMs.

2022

The AMAP 2021 assessment

Eckhardt, Sabine; Flanner, Mark; Kupiainen, Kaarle

2020

The ANALYST project: Strengthening the integrated approach of holistic impact assessments for Safe and Sustainable by design plastic value chain

Longhin, Eleonora Marta; Murugadoss, Sivakumar; Olsen, Ann-Karin Hardie; SenGupta, Tanima; Rundén-Pran, Elise; Yamani, Naouale El; Dusinska, Maria; Lago, Ana; Ferreira, G.

2025

The ArcRisk mercury (Hg) case study.

Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, J.M.; Banel, A.; Pacyna, E.G.

2014

The ArcRisk mercury (Hg) case study. NILU F

Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, J.M.; Banel, A.; Pacyna, E.G.

2014

The Arctic tundra and its soil-dwelling springtails (Collembola) reflect nitrogen and contaminants biotransported by seabirds

Kristiansen, Silje Marie; Leinaas, Hans Petter; Herzke, Dorte; Hylland, Ketil; Gabrielsen, Geir W.; Harju, Mikael; Borgå, Katrine

2019

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses.

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.,, Rharmili, S.

2009

The Assimilation of Envisat data (ASSET) project.

Lahoz, W.A.; Geer, A.J.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Ceccherini, S.; Elbern, H.; Errera, Q.; Eskes, H.J.; Fonteyn, D.; Jackson, D.R.; Khattatov, B.; Marchand, M.; Massart, S.; Peuch, V.-H.; Rharmili, S.; Ridolfi, M.; Segers, A.; Talagrand, O.; Thornton, H.E.; Vik, A.F.; von Clarmann, T.

2007

The ASTAR 2007 April 14 haze layer: The radiative effect of an aged and internally mixed aerosol in the Arctic. NILU PP

Engvall, A.-C.; Ström, J.; Tunved, P.; Krejci, R.; Schlager, H.; Minikin, A.

2008

The ASTAR 2007 April 14 haze layer: The radiative effect of an aged and internally mixed aerosol in the Arctic.

Engvall, A.-C.; Ström, J.; Tunved, P.; Krejci, R.; Schlager, H.; Minikin, A.

2008

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability phase-dependence of teleconnection between the North Atlantic Oscillation in February and the Tibetan Plateau in March

Li, Jingyi; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun; Orsolini, Yvan J.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), referred to as the “Asian water tower,” contains one of the largest land ice masses on Earth. The local glacier shrinkage and frozen-water storage are strongly affected by variations in surface air temperature over the TP (TPSAT), especially in springtime. This study reveals that the relationship between the February North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and March TPSAT is unstable with time and regulated by the phase of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The significant out-of-phase connection occurs only during the warm phase of AMV (AMV+). The results show that during the AMV+, the negative phase of the NAO persists from February to March, and is accompanied by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train trapped along a northward-shifted subtropical westerly jet stream across Eurasia, inducing an anomalous adiabatic descent that warms the TP. However, during the cold phase of the AMV, the negative NAO cannot persist into March. The Rossby wave train propagates along the well-separated polar and subtropical westerly jets, and the NAO–TPSAT connection is broken. Further investigation suggests that the enhanced synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) interaction over the North Atlantic in February and March during the AMV+, caused by the southward-shifted storm track, helps maintain the NAO pattern via positive eddy feedback. This study provides a new detailed perspective on the decadal variability of the North Atlantic–TP connection in late winter to early spring.

2021

The Atmosphere Above Ny-Ålesund: Climate and Global Warming, Ozone and Surface UV Radiation

Maturilli, Marion; Hanssen-Bauer, Inger; Neuber, Roland; Rex, Markus; Edvardsen, Kåre

2019

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