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Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study
The characteristics and driving mechanisms of Elevated Stratopause Events (ESEs) are examined in simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model under present and projected climate conditions. ESEs develop after sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in boreal winter. While the stratopause descends during SSWs, it is reformed at higher altitudes after the SSWs, leading to ESEs in years with a particularly high new stratopause. EMAC reproduces well the frequency and main characteristics of observed ESEs. ESEs occur in 24% of the winters, mostly after major SSWs. They develop in stable polar vortices due to a persistent tropospheric wave forcing leading to a prolonged zonal wind reversal in the lower stratosphere. By wave filtering, this enables a faster re-establishment of the mesospheric westerly jet, polar downwelling and a higher stratopause. We find the presence of a westward-propagating wavenumber-1 planetary wave in the mesosphere following the onset, consistent with in-situ generation by large-scale instability. By the end of the 21st century, the number of ESEs is projected to increase, mainly due to a sinking of the original stratopause after strong tropospheric wave forcing and planetary wave dissipation at lower levels. Future ESEs develop preferably in more intense and cold polar vortices, and tend to be shorter. While in the current climate, planetary wavenumber-2 contributes to the forcing of ESEs, future wave forcing is dominated by wavenumber-1 activity as a result of climate change. Hence, a persistent wave forcing seems to be more relevant for the development of an ESE than the wavenumber decomposition of the forcing.
Elsevier
2021
Fate of Springtime Atmospheric Reactive Mercury: Concentrations and Deposition at Zeppelin, Svalbard
Mid-latitude atmospheric elemental mercury (Hg) emissions undergo extensive oxidation to reactive Hg (RM) compounds during Arctic polar sunrise, resulting in enhanced atmospheric deposition that impacts Arctic marine wildlife and humans. It has been difficult to estimate RM dry deposition, because RM concentrations, compounds, and their deposition velocities are ill-defined. Here, we investigate RM concentrations sampled with membrane-based methods and find these to exceed denuder-based RM detection by 5 times at the Zeppelin Observatory on Svalbard (March 26–July 24, 2019). Measured dry deposition of gaseous oxidized Hg was about half of the modeled RM deposition, demonstrating that particulate-bound Hg was an important component of dry deposition. Using thermal membrane desorption, RM chemistry was found to be dominated by Hg–Cl/Br (51%) and Hg–N (45%) compounds. Back-trajectory analysis indicated that Hg–Br/Cl compounds were predominantly advected from within the marine boundary layer (sea ice exposure), while Hg–N originated from the free troposphere. Weekly average RM compound-specific dry deposition velocities ranged from 0.12 to 0.49 cm s–1, with a net RM dry deposition of 1.9 μg m–2 (1.5–2.5 μg m–2; 95% confidence interval) that exceeds the mean annual Hg wet deposition flux in Svalbard. Overall, we find that springtime atmospheric RM deposition has been underestimated in the Arctic marine environment.
American Chemical Society (ACS)
2021
Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century
Soil salinization has become one of the major environmental and socioeconomic issues globally and this is expected to be exacerbated further with projected climatic change. Determining how climate change influences the dynamics of naturally-occurring soil salinization has scarcely been addressed due to highly complex processes influencing salinization. This paper sets out to address this long-standing challenge by developing data-driven models capable of predicting primary (naturally-occurring) soil salinity and its variations in the world’s drylands up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Analysis of the future predictions made here identifies the dryland areas of South America, southern and western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa as the salinization hotspots. Conversely, we project a decrease in the soil salinity of the drylands in the northwest United States, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, and west Kazakhstan in response to climate change over the same period.
Springer Nature
2021
2021
Calibration of CO, NO2, and O3 Using Airify: A Low-Cost Sensor Cluster for Air Quality Monitoring
During the last decade, extensive research has been carried out on the subject of low-cost sensor platforms for air quality monitoring. A key aspect when deploying such systems is the quality of the measured data. Calibration is especially important to improve the data quality of low-cost air monitoring devices. The measured data quality must comply with regulations issued by national or international authorities in order to be used for regulatory purposes. This work discusses the challenges and methods suitable for calibrating a low-cost sensor platform developed by our group, Airify, that has a unit cost five times less expensive than the state-of-the-art solutions (approximately €1000). The evaluated platform can integrate a wide variety of sensors capable of measuring up to 12 parameters, including the regulatory pollutants defined in the European Directive. In this work, we developed new calibration models (multivariate linear regression and random forest) and evaluated their effectiveness in meeting the data quality objective (DQO) for the following parameters: carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The experimental results show that the proposed calibration managed an improvement of 12% for the CO and O3 gases and a similar accuracy for the NO2 gas compared to similar state-of-the-art studies. The evaluated parameters had different calibration accuracies due to the non-identical levels of gas concentration at which the sensors were exposed during the model’s training phase. After the calibration algorithms were applied to the evaluated platform, its performance met the DQO criteria despite the overall low price level of the platform.
MDPI
2021
The alkaline comet assay, or single cell gel electrophoresis, is one of the most popular methods for assessing DNA damage in human population. One of the open issues concerning this assay is the identification of those factors that can explain the large inter-individual and inter-laboratory variation. International collaborative initiatives such as the hCOMET project - a COST Action launched in 2016 - represent a valuable tool to meet this challenge. The aims of hCOMET were to establish reference values for the level of DNA damage in humans, to investigate the effect of host factors, lifestyle and exposure to genotoxic agents, and to compare different sources of assay variability. A database of 19,320 subjects was generated, pooling data from 105 studies run by 44 laboratories in 26 countries between 1999 and 2019. A mixed random effect log-linear model, in parallel with a classic meta-analysis, was applied to take into account the extensive heterogeneity of data, due to descriptor, specimen and protocol variability. As a result of this analysis interquartile intervals of DNA strand breaks (which includes alkali-labile sites) were reported for tail intensity, tail length, and tail moment (comet assay descriptors). A small variation by age was reported in some datasets, suggesting higher DNA damage in oldest age-classes, while no effect could be shown for sex or smoking habit, although the lack of data on heavy smokers has still to be considered. Finally, highly significant differences in DNA damage were found for most exposures investigated in specific studies. In conclusion, these data, which confirm that DNA damage measured by the comet assay is an excellent biomarker of exposure in several conditions, may contribute to improving the quality of study design and to the standardization of results of the comet assay in human populations.
Elsevier
2021
This paper presents a modelling study on the fate of CHBr3 and its product gases in the troposphere within the context of tropical deep convection. A cloud-scale case study was conducted along the west coast of Borneo, where several deep convective systems were triggered on the afternoon and early evening of 19 November 2011. These systems were sampled by the Falcon aircraft during the field campaign of the SHIVA project and analysed using a simulation with the cloud-resolving meteorological model C-CATT-BRAMS at 2×2 km resolution that represents the emissions, transport by large-scale flow, convection, photochemistry, and washout of CHBr3 and its product gases (PGs). We find that simulated CHBr3 mixing ratios and the observed values in the boundary layer and the outflow of the convective systems agree. However, the model underestimates the background CHBr3 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere, which suggests a missing source at the regional scale. An analysis of the simulated chemical speciation of bromine within and around each simulated convective system during the mature convective stage reveals that >85 % of the bromine derived from CHBr3 and its PGs is transported vertically to the point of convective detrainment in the form of CHBr3 and that the remaining small fraction is in the form of organic PGs, principally insoluble brominated carbonyls produced from the photo-oxidation of CHBr3. The model simulates that within the boundary layer and free troposphere, the inorganic PGs are only present in soluble forms, i.e. HBr, HOBr, and BrONO2, and, consequently, within the convective clouds, the inorganic PGs are almost entirely removed by wet scavenging. We find that HBr is the most abundant PG in background lower-tropospheric air and that this prevalence of HBr is a result of the relatively low background tropospheric ozone levels at the regional scale. Contrary to a previous study in a different environment, for the conditions in the simulation, the insoluble Br2 species is hardly formed within the convective systems and therefore plays no significant role in the vertical transport of bromine. This likely results from the relatively small quantities of simulated inorganic bromine involved, the presence of HBr in large excess compared to HOBr and BrO, and the relatively efficient removal of soluble compounds within the convective column.
2021
Polyurethane foam passive air samplers (PUF-PAS) are the most common type of passive air sampler used for a range of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), including regulated persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and emerging contaminants (e.g., novel flame retardants, phthalates, current-use pesticides). Data from PUF-PAS are key indicators of effectiveness of global regulatory actions on SVOCs, such as the Global Monitoring Plan of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. While most PUF-PAS use similar double-dome metal shielding, there is no standardized dome size, shape, or deployment configuration, with many different PUF-PAS designs used in regional and global monitoring. Yet, no information is available on the comparability of data from studies using different PUF-PAS designs. We brought together 12 types of PUF-PAS used by different research groups around the world and deployed them in a multi-part intercomparison to evaluate the variability in reported concentrations introduced by different elements of PAS monitoring. PUF-PAS were deployed for 3 months in outdoor air in Kjeller, Norway in 2015–2016 in three phases to capture (1) the influence of sampler design on data comparability, (2) the influence of analytical variability when samplers are analyzed at different laboratories, and (3) the overall variability in global monitoring data introduced by differences in sampler configurations and analytical methods. Results indicate that while differences in sampler design (in particular, the spacing between the upper and lower sampler bowls) account for up to 50 % differences in masses collected by samplers, the variability introduced by analysis in different laboratories far exceeds this amount, resulting in differences spanning orders of magnitude for POPs and PAHs. The high level of variability due to analysis in different laboratories indicates that current SVOC air sampling data (i.e., not just for PUF-PAS but likely also for active air sampling) are not directly comparable between laboratories/monitoring programs. To support on-going efforts to mobilize more SVOC data to contribute to effectiveness evaluation, intercalibration exercises to account for uncertainties in air sampling, repeated at regular intervals, must be established to ensure analytical comparability and avoid biases in global-scale assessments of SVOCs in air caused by differences in laboratory performance.
Elsevier
2021
This study introduces an Earth observation (EO)-based system which is capable of operationally estimating and continuously monitoring the ultraviolet index (UVI) in Europe. UVIOS (i.e., UV-Index Operating System) exploits a synergy of radiative transfer models with high-performance computing and EO data from satellites (Meteosat Second Generation and Meteorological Operational Satellite-B) and retrieval processes (Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and the Global Land Service). It provides a near-real-time nowcasting and short-term forecasting service for UV radiation over Europe. The main atmospheric inputs for the UVI simulations include ozone, clouds and aerosols, while the impacts of ground elevation and surface albedo are also taken into account. The UVIOS output is the UVI at high spatial and temporal resolution (5 km and 15 min, respectively) for Europe (i.e., 1.5 million pixels) in real time. The UVI is empirically related to biologically important UV dose rates, and the reliability of this EO-based solution was verified against ground-based measurements from 17 stations across Europe. Stations are equipped with spectral, broadband or multi-filter instruments and cover a range of topographic and atmospheric conditions. A period of over 1 year of forecasted 15 min retrievals under all-sky conditions was compared with the ground-based measurements. UVIOS forecasts were within ±0.5 of the measured UVI for at least 70 % of the data compared at all stations. For clear-sky conditions the agreement was better than 0.5 UVI for 80 % of the data. A sensitivity analysis of EO inputs and UVIOS outputs was performed in order to quantify the level of uncertainty in the derived products and to identify the covariance between the accuracy of the output and the spatial and temporal resolution and the quality of the inputs. Overall, UVIOS slightly overestimated the UVI due to observational uncertainties in inputs of cloud and aerosol. This service will hopefully contribute to EO capabilities and will assist the provision of operational early warning systems that will help raise awareness among European Union citizens of the health implications of high UVI doses.
2021
Knowledge architecture for the wise governance of sustainability transitions
The need for sustainability transitions is widely recognised, along with a concurrent need for the evolution of knowledge systems to inform more effective policy action. Although there are many new policy targets relating to net zero emissions and other sustainability challenges, cities, regional and national governments are struggling to rapidly develop transformational policies to achieve them. As academics and practitioners who work at the science-policy interface, we identify specific knowledge and competency needs for governing sustainability transitions related to the interlinked phases of envisioning, implementing and evaluating. In short, coordinated reforms of both policy and knowledge systems are urgently needed to address the speed and scale of sustainability challenges. These include embedding systems thinking literacy, mainstreaming participatory policy making, expanding the capacity to undertake transdisciplinary research, more adaptive governance and continuous organisational learning. These processes must guide further knowledge development, uptake and use as part of an iterative and holistic process. Such deep-seated change in policy-knowledge systems will be disruptive and presents challenges for traditional organisational models of knowledge delivery, but is essential for successful sustainability transformations.
Elsevier
2021