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Snow initialization has been previously investigated as a potential source of predictability atthe subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale in winter and spring, through its local radiative,thermodynamical, and hydrological feedbacks. However, previous studies were conducted with low‐topmodels over short periods only. Furthermore, the potential role of the land surface‐stratosphere connectionupon the S2S predictability had remained unclear. To this end, we have carried out twin 30‐memberensembles of 2‐month (November and December) retrospective forecasts over the period 1985–2016, witheither realistic or degraded snow initialization. A high‐top version of the Norwegian Climate PredictionModel is used, based on the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, to insure improved couplingwith the stratosphere. In a composite difference of high versus low initial Eurasian snow, the surfacetemperature is strongly impacted by the presence of snow, and wave activityfluxes into the stratosphere areenhanced at a 1‐month lag, leading to a weakened polar vortex. Focusing further on 7 years characterized bya strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, wefind a weak snow feedback contributing to themaintenance of the negative Arctic Oscillation. By comparing the twin forecasts, we extracted the predictiveskill increment due to realistic snow initialization. The prediction of snow itself is greatly improved, andthere is increased skill in surface temperature over snow‐covered land in thefirst 10 days, and localized skillincrements in the mid‐latitude transition regions on the southernflanks of the snow‐covered land areas, atlead times longer than 30 days.
2019
Low-cost air quality sensor systems can be deployed at high density, making them a significant candidate of complementary tools for improved air quality assessment. However, they still suffer from poor or unknown data quality. In this paper, we report on a unique dataset including the raw sensor data of quality-controlled sensor networks along with co-located reference data sets. Sensor data are collected using the AirSensEUR sensor system, including sensors to monitor NO, NO2, O3, CO, PM2.5, PM10, PM1, CO2 and meteorological parameters. In total, 85 sensor systems were deployed throughout a year in three European cities (Antwerp, Oslo and Zagreb), resulting in a dataset comprising different meteorological and ambient conditions. The main data collection included two co-location campaigns in different seasons at an Air Quality Monitoring Station (AQMS) in each city and a deployment at various locations in each city (also including locations at other AQMSs). The dataset consists of data files with sensor and reference data, and metadata files with description of locations, deployment dates and description of sensors and reference instruments.
2023
2018
The oil and gas (O&G) sector is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. Quantifying these emissions remains challenging, with many studies highlighting discrepancies between measurements and inventory-based estimates. In this study, we present CH4 emission fluxes from 21 offshore O&G facilities collected in 10 O&G fields over two regions of the Norwegian continental shelf in 2019. Emissions of CH4 derived from measurements during 13 aircraft surveys were found to range from 2.6 to 1200 t yr−1 (with a mean of 211 t yr−1 across all 21 facilities). Comparing this with aggregated operator-reported facility emissions for 2019, we found excellent agreement (within 1σ uncertainty), with mean aircraft-measured fluxes only 16 % lower than those reported by operators. We also compared aircraft-derived fluxes with facility fluxes extracted from a global gridded fossil fuel CH4 emission inventory compiled for 2016. We found that the measured emissions were 42 % larger than the inventory for the area covered by this study, for the 21 facilities surveyed (in aggregate). We interpret this large discrepancy not to reflect a systematic error in the operator-reported emissions, which agree with measurements, but rather the representativity of the global inventory due to the methodology used to construct it and the fact that the inventory was compiled for 2016 (and thus not representative of emissions in 2019). This highlights the need for timely and up-to-date inventories for use in research and policy. The variable nature of CH4 emissions from individual facilities requires knowledge of facility operational status during measurements for data to be useful in prioritising targeted emission mitigation solutions. Future surveys of individual facilities would benefit from knowledge of facility operational status over time. Field-specific aggregated emissions (and uncertainty statistics), as presented here for the Norwegian Sea, can be meaningfully estimated from intensive aircraft surveys. However, field-specific estimates cannot be reliably extrapolated to other production fields without their own tailored surveys, which would need to capture a range of facility designs, oil and gas production volumes, and facility ages. For year-on-year comparison to annually updated inventories and regulatory emission reporting, analogous annual surveys would be needed for meaningful top-down validation. In summary, this study demonstrates the importance and accuracy of detailed, facility-level emission accounting and reporting by operators and the use of airborne measurement approaches to validate bottom-up accounting.
2022
Observed and Modeled Black Carbon Deposition and Sources in the Western Russian Arctic 1800−2014
Black carbon (BC) particles contribute to climate warming by heating the atmosphere and reducing the albedo of snow/ice surfaces. The available Arctic BC deposition records are restricted to the Atlantic and North American sectors, for which previous studies suggest considerable spatial differences in trends. Here, we present first long-term BC deposition and radiocarbon-based source apportionment data from Russia using four lake sediment records from western Arctic Russia, a region influenced by BC emissions from oil and gas production. The records consistently indicate increasing BC fluxes between 1800 and 2014. The radiocarbon analyses suggest mainly (∼70%) biomass sources for BC with fossil fuel contributions peaking around 1960–1990. Backward calculations with the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART show emission source areas and indicate that modeled BC deposition between 1900 and 1999 is largely driven by emission trends. Comparison of observed and modeled data suggests the need to update anthropogenic BC emission inventories for Russia, as these seem to underestimate Russian BC emissions and since 1980s potentially inaccurately portray their trend. Additionally, the observations may indicate underestimation of wildfire emissions in inventories. Reliable information on BC deposition trends and sources is essential for design of efficient and effective policies to limit climate warming.
2021
The influence of residential wood combustion on the concentrations of PM2.5 in four Nordic cities
Residential wood combustion (RWC) is an important contributor to air quality in numerous regions worldwide. This study is the first extensive evaluation of the influence of RWC on ambient air quality in several Nordic cities. We have analysed the emissions and concentrations of PM2.5 in cities within four Nordic countries: in the metropolitan areas of Copenhagen, Oslo, and Helsinki and in the city of Umeå. We have evaluated the emissions for the relevant urban source categories and modelled atmospheric dispersion on regional and urban scales. The emission inventories for RWC were based on local surveys, the amount of wood combusted, combustion technologies and other relevant factors. The accuracy of the predicted concentrations was evaluated based on urban concentration measurements. The predicted annual average concentrations ranged spatially from 4 to 7 µg m−3 (2011), from 6 to 10 µg m−3 (2013), from 4 to more than 13 µg m−3 (2013) and from 9 to more than 13 µg m−3 (2014), in Umeå, Helsinki, Oslo and Copenhagen, respectively. The higher concentrations in Copenhagen were mainly caused by the relatively high regionally and continentally transported background contributions. The annual average fractions of PM2.5 concentrations attributed to RWC within the considered urban regions ranged spatially from 0 % to 15 %, from 0 % to 20 %, from 8 % to 22 % and from 0 % to 60 % in Helsinki, Copenhagen, Umeå and Oslo, respectively. In particular, the contributions of RWC in central Oslo were larger than 40 % as annual averages. In Oslo, wood combustion was used mainly for the heating of larger blocks of flats. In contrast, in Helsinki, RWC was solely used in smaller detached houses. In Copenhagen and Helsinki, the highest fractions occurred outside the city centre in the suburban areas. In Umeå, the highest fractions occurred both in the city centre and its surroundings.
2020
2018
Background
Chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are industrial chemicals categorised as persistent organic pollutants because of their toxicity, persistency and tendency to long-range transport, bioaccumulation and biomagnification. Despite having been the subject of environmental attention for decades, analytical methods for CPs still struggle reaching a sufficient degree of accuracy. Among the issues negatively impacting the quantification of CPs, the unavailability of well-characterised standards, both as pure substances and as matrix (certified) reference materials (CRMs), has played a major role. The focus of this study was to provide a matrix CRM as quality control tool to improve the comparability of CPs measurement results.
Results
We present the process of certification of ERM®-CE100, the first fish reference material assigned with certified values for the mass fraction of short-chain and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs and MCCPs, respectively). The certification was performed in accordance with ISO 17034:2016 and ISO Guide 35:2017, with the value assignment step carried out via an intercomparison of laboratories of demonstrated competence in CPs analysis and applying procedures based on different analytical principles. After confirmation of the homogeneity and stability of the CRM, two certified values were assigned for SCCPs, depending on the calibrants used: 31 ± 9 μg kg−1 and 23 ± 7 μg kg−1. The MCCPs certified value was established as 44 ± 17 μg kg−1. All assigned values are relative to wet weight in the CRM that was produced as a fish paste to enhance similarity to routine biota samples.
Significance and novelty
The fish tissue ERM-CE100 is the first matrix CRM commercially available for the analysis of CPs, enabling analytical laboratories to improve the accuracy and the metrological traceability of their measurements. The certified CPs values are based on results obtained by both gas and liquid chromatography coupled with various mass spectrometric techniques, offering thus a broad validity to laboratories employing different analytical methods and equipment.
2024
The choice of the minimum ventilation rate (Vmin) in a demand-controlled ventilation strategy can influence energy demand but also introduce outdoor air pollutants. The latter may have direct health effects, as well as affect indoor chemical reactions. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of ventilation rates and operation hours on the level of CO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) in a classroom during normal use. We compared the baseline ventilation scenario (S0) with a Vmin of 430 m3/h with S1; Vmin of 150 m3/h for normal ventilation operation time (6:30-17:00) and continuous ventilation for 24h (S2). We found that S1 with reduced Vmin would lower the ozone concentration by 35% during the hours before occupancy compared to S0. Moreover, continuous ventilation during night time with a low Vmin resulted in almost as high O3 concentrations as the baseline ventilation scenario. As O3 reacts easily with certain VOCs to produce secondary organic aerosols, the level of Vmin and the ventilation duration would impact the indoor air quality upon entering the classroom.
2023
2023
Main sources controlling atmospheric burdens of persistent organic pollutants on a national scale
National long-term monitoring programs on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in background air have traditionally relied on active air sampling techniques. Due to limited spatial coverage of active air samplers, questions remain (i) whether active air sampler monitoring sites are representative for atmospheric burdens within the larger geographical area targeted by the monitoring programs, and thus (ii) if the main sources affecting POPs in background air across a nation are understood. The main objective of this study was to explore the utility of spatial and temporal trends in concert with multiple modelling approaches to understand the main sources affecting polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in background air across a nation. For this purpose, a comprehensive campaign was carried out in summer 2016, measuring POPs in background air across Norway using passive air sampling. Results were compared to a similar campaign in 2006 to assess possible changes over one decade. We furthermore used the Global EMEP Multi-media Modeling System (GLEMOS) and the Flexible Particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to predict and evaluate the relative importance of primary emissions, secondary emissions, long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) and national emissions in controlling atmospheric burdens of PCB-153 on a national scale. The concentrations in air of both PCBs and most of the targeted OCPs were generally low, with the exception of hexachlorobenzene (HCB). A limited spatial variability for all POPs in this study, together with predictions by both models, suggest that LRAT dominates atmospheric burdens across Norway. Model predictions by the GLEMOS model, as well as measured isomeric ratios, further suggest that LRAT of some POPs are dictated by secondary emissions. Our results illustrate the utility of combining observations and mechanistic modelling approaches to help identify the main factors affecting atmospheric burdens of POPs across a nation, which, in turn, may be used to inform both national monitoring and control strategies.
2021
Multidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world
In order to assess the evolution of aerosol parameters affecting climate change, a long-term trend analysis of aerosol optical properties was performed on time series from 52 stations situated across five continents. The time series of measured scattering, backscattering and absorption coefficients as well as the derived single scattering albedo, backscattering fraction, scattering and absorption Ångström exponents covered at least 10 years and up to 40 years for some stations. The non-parametric seasonal Mann–Kendall (MK) statistical test associated with several pre-whitening methods and with Sen's slope was used as the main trend analysis method. Comparisons with general least mean square associated with autoregressive bootstrap (GLS/ARB) and with standard least mean square analysis (LMS) enabled confirmation of the detected MK statistically significant trends and the assessment of advantages and limitations of each method. Currently, scattering and backscattering coefficient trends are mostly decreasing in Europe and North America and are not statistically significant in Asia, while polar stations exhibit a mix of increasing and decreasing trends. A few increasing trends are also found at some stations in North America and Australia. Absorption coefficient time series also exhibit primarily decreasing trends. For single scattering albedo, 52 % of the sites exhibit statistically significant positive trends, mostly in Asia, eastern/northern Europe and the Arctic, 22 % of sites exhibit statistically significant negative trends, mostly in central Europe and central North America, while the remaining 26 % of sites have trends which are not statistically significant. In addition to evaluating trends for the overall time series, the evolution of the trends in sequential 10-year segments was also analyzed. For scattering and backscattering, statistically significant increasing 10-year trends are primarily found for earlier periods (10-year trends ending in 2010–2015) for polar stations and Mauna Loa. For most of the stations, the present-day statistically significant decreasing 10-year trends of the single scattering albedo were preceded by not statistically significant and statistically significant increasing 10-year trends. The effect of air pollution abatement policies in continental North America is very obvious in the 10-year trends of the scattering coefficient – there is a shift to statistically significant negative trends in 2009–2012 for all stations in the eastern and central USA. This long-term trend analysis of aerosol radiative properties with a broad spatial coverage provides insight into potential aerosol effects on climate changes.
2020
This study investigated relationships between organohalogen compound (OHC) exposure, feeding habits, and pathogen exposure in a recovering population of Atlantic walruses (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway. Various samples were collected from 39 free-living, apparently healthy, adult male walruses immobilised at three sampling locations during the summers of 2014 and 2015. Concentrations of lipophilic compounds (polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides and polybrominated diphenyl ethers) were analysed in blubber samples, and concentrations of perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) were determined in plasma samples. Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen were measured in seven tissue types and surveys for three infectious pathogens were conducted. Despite an overall decline in lipophilic compound concentrations since this population was last studied (2006), the contaminant pattern was similar, including extremely large inter-individual variation. Stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen showed that the variation in OHC concentrations could not be explained by some walruses consuming higher trophic level diets, since all animals were found to feed at a similar trophic level. Antibodies against the bacteria Brucella spp. and the parasite Toxoplasma gondii were detected in 26% and 15% of the walruses, respectively. Given the absence of seal-predation, T. gondii exposure likely took place via the consumption of contaminated bivalves. The source of exposure to Brucella spp. in walruses is still unknown. Parapoxvirus DNA was detected in a single individual, representing the first documented evidence of parapoxvirus in wild walruses. Antibody prevalence was not related to contaminant exposure. Despite this, dynamic relationships between diet composition, contaminant bioaccumulation and pathogen exposure warrant continuing attention given the likelihood of climate change induced habitat and food web changes, and consequently OHC exposure, for Svalbard walruses in the coming decades.
2019
The global monitoring plan of the Minamata Convention on Mercury was established to generate long-term data necessary for evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory measures at a global scale. After 25 years of monitoring (since 1995), Mace Head is one of the atmospheric monitoring stations with the longest mercury record and has produced sufficient data for the analysis of temporal trends of total gaseous mercury (TGM) in Europe and the North Atlantic. Using concentration-weighted trajectories for atmospheric mercury measured at Mace Head as well as another five locations in Europe, Amderma, Andøya, Villum, Waldhof and Zeppelin, we identify the regional probabilistic source contribution factor and its changes for the period of 1996 to 2019. Temporal trends indicate that concentrations of mercury in the atmosphere in Europe and the North Atlantic have declined significantly over the past 25 years at a non-monotonic rate averaging 0.03 . Concentrations of TGM at remote marine sites were shown to be affected by continental long-range transport, and evaluation of reanalysis back trajectories displays a significant decrease in TGM in continental air masses from Europe in the last 2 decades. In addition, using the relationship between mercury and other atmospheric trace gases that could serve as a source signature, we perform factorization regression analysis, based on positive rotatable factorization to solve probabilistic mass functions. We reconstructed atmospheric mercury concentration and assessed the contribution of the major natural and anthropogenic sources. The results reveal that the observed downward trend in the atmospheric mercury is mainly associated with a factor with a high load of long-lived anthropogenic species.
2022
Herring gulls (Larus argentatus) are opportunistic feeders, resulting in contaminant exposure depending on area and habitat. We compared contaminant concentrations and dietary markers between two herring gull breeding colonies with different distances to extensive human activity and presumed contaminant exposure from the local marine diet. Furthermore, we investigated the integrity of DNA in white blood cells and sensitivity to oxidative stress. We analyzed blood from 15 herring gulls from each colony—the urban Oslofjord near the Norwegian capital Oslo in the temperate region and the remote Hornøya island in northern Norway, on the Barents Sea coast. Based on d13C and d34S, the dietary sources of urban gulls differed, with some individuals having a marine and others a more terrestrial dietary signal. All remote gulls had a marine dietary signal and higher relative trophic level than the urban marine feeding gulls. Concentrations (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) of most persistent organic pollutants, such as polychlorinated biphenyl ethers (PCBs) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), were higher in urban marine (PCB153 17 ± 17 ng/g wet weight, PFOS 25 ± 21 ng/g wet wt) than urban terrestrial feeders (PCB153 3.7 ± 2.4 ng/g wet wt, PFOS 6.7 ± 10 ng/g wet wt). Despite feeding at a higher trophic level (d15N), the remote gulls (PCB153 17 ± 1221 ng/g wet wt, PFOS 19 ± 1421 ng/g wet wt) were similar to the urban marine feeders. Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes were detected in only a few gulls, except for decamethylcyclopentasiloxane in the urban colony, which was found in 12 of 13 gulls. Only hexachlorobenzene was present in higher concentrations in the remote (2.6 ± 0.42 ng/g wet wt) compared with the urban colony (0.34 ± 0.33 ng/g wet wt). Baseline and induced DNA damage (doublestreak breaks) was higher in urban than in remote gulls for both terrestrial and marine feeders.
2022
Instead of a flag valid/non-valid usually proposed in the quality control (QC) processes of air quality (AQ), we proposed a method that predicts the p-value of each observation as a value between 0 and 1. We based our error predictions on three approaches: the one proposed by the Working Group on Guidance for the Demonstration of Equivalence (European Commission (2010)), the one proposed by Wager (Journal of Machine Learning Research, 15, 1625–1651 (2014)) and the one proposed by Lu (Journal of Machine Learning Research, 22, 1–41 (2021)). Total Error framework enables to differentiate the different errors: input, output, structural modeling and remnant. We thus theoretically described a one-site AQ prediction based on a multi-site network using Random Forest for regression in a Total Error framework. We demonstrated the methodology with a dataset of hourly nitrogen dioxide measured by a network of monitoring stations located in Oslo, Norway and implemented the error predictions for the three approaches. The results indicate that a simple one-site AQ prediction based on a multi-site network using Random Forest for regression provides moderate metrics for fixed stations. According to the diagnostic based on predictive qq-plot and among the three approaches used in this study, the approach proposed by Lu provides better error predictions. Furthermore, ensuring a high precision of the error prediction requires efforts on getting accurate input, output and prediction model and limiting our lack of knowledge about the “true” AQ phenomena. We put effort in quantifying each type of error involved in the error prediction to assess the error prediction model and further improving it in terms of performance and precision.
2021
Low concentrations of 106Ru were detected across Europe at the turn of September and October 2017. The origin of 106Ru has still not been confirmed; however, current studies agree that the release occurred probably near Mayak in the southern Urals. The source reconstructions are mostly based on an analysis of concentration measurements coupled with an atmospheric transport model. Since reasonable temporal resolution of concentration measurements is crucial for proper source term reconstruction, the standard 1-week sampling interval could be limiting. In this paper, we present an investigation of the usability of the newly developed AMARA (Autonomous Monitor of Atmospheric Radioactive Aerosol) and CEGAM (carousel gamma spectrometry) real-time monitoring systems, which are based on the gamma-ray counting of aerosol filters and allow for determining the moment when 106Ru arrived at the monitoring site within approx. 1 h and detecting activity concentrations as low as several mBq m−3 in 4 h intervals. These high-resolution data were used for inverse modeling of the 106Ru release. We perform backward runs of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) atmospheric transport model driven with meteorological data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), and we construct a source–receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrix for each grid cell of our domain. Then, we use our least squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC) method to estimate possible locations of the release and the source term of the release. With Czech monitoring data, the use of concentration measurements from the standard regime and from the real-time regime is compared, and a better source reconstruction for the real-time data is demonstrated in the sense of the location of the source and also the temporal resolution of the source. The estimated release location, Mayak, and the total estimated source term, 237±107 TBq, are in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the results based on the Czech monitoring data are validated with the IAEA-reported (International Atomic Energy Agency) dataset with a much better spatial resolution, and the agreement between the IAEA dataset and our reconstruction is demonstrated. In addition, we validated our findings also using the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion) model coupled with meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
2021
2019
Impacts of the autumn Arctic sea ice on the intraseasonal reversal of the winter Siberian high
During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high (SH) in November and December–January (DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and circulation anomalies. Further analyses indicate that the autumn Arctic sea ice is important for the phase reversal of the SH. There is a significantly positive (negative) correlation between the November (DJ) SH and the September sea ice area (SIA) anomalies. It is suggested that the reduction of autumn SIA induces anomalous upward surface turbulent heat flux (SHF), which can persist into November, especially over the Barents Sea. Consequently, the enhanced eddy energy and wave activity flux are transported to mid and high latitudes. This will then benefit the development of the storm track in northeastern Europe. Conversely, when downward SHF anomalies prevail in DJ, the decreased heat flux and suppressed eddy energy hinder the growth of the storm track during DJ over the Barents Sea and Europe. Through the eddy–mean flow interaction, the strengthened (weakened) storm track activities induce decreased (increased) Ural blockings and accelerated (decelerated) westerlies, which makes the cold air from the Arctic inhibited (transported) over the Siberian area. Therefore, a weaker (stronger) SH in November (DJ) occurs downstream. Moreover, anomalously large snowfall may intensify the SH in DJ rather than in November. The ensemble-mean results from the CMIP5 historical simulations further confirm these connections. The different responses to Arctic sea ice anomalies in early and middle winter set this study apart from earlier ones.
2018
Why is the city's responsibility for its air pollution often underestimated? A focus on PM2.5
While the burden caused by air pollution in urban areas is well documented, the origin of this pollution and therefore the responsibility of the urban areas in generating this pollution are still a subject of scientific discussion. Source apportionment represents a useful technique to quantify the city's responsibility, but the approaches and applications are not harmonized and therefore not comparable, resulting in confusing and sometimes contradicting interpretations. In this work, we analyse how different source apportionment approaches apply to the urban scale and how their building elements and parameters are defined and set. We discuss in particular the options available in terms of indicator, receptor, source, and methodology. We show that different choices for these options lead to very large differences in terms of outcome. For the 150 large EU cities selected in our study, different choices made for the indicator, the receptor, and the source each lead to an average difference of a factor of 2 in terms of city contribution. We also show that temporal- and spatial-averaging processes applied to the air quality indicator, especially when diverging source apportionments are aggregated into a single number, lead to the favouring of strategies that target background sources while occulting actions that would be efficient in the city centre. We stress that methodological choices and assumptions most often lead to a systematic and important underestimation of the city's responsibility, with important implications. Indeed, if cities are seen as a minor actor, plans will target the background as a priority at the expense of potentially effective local actions.
2021
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, often referred to as the Third Pole, is the world's highest plateau and exerts a considerable influence on regional and global climate. The state of the snowpack over the TP is a major research focus due to its great impact on the headwaters of a dozen major Asian rivers. While many studies have attempted to validate atmospheric reanalyses over the TP area in terms of temperature or precipitation, there have been – remarkably – no studies aimed at systematically comparing the snow depth or snow cover in global reanalyses with satellite and in situ data. Yet, snow in reanalyses provides critical surface information for forecast systems from the medium to sub-seasonal timescales.
Here, snow depth and snow cover from four recent global reanalysis products, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), are inter-compared over the TP region. The reanalyses are evaluated against a set of 33 in situ station observations, as well as against the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow cover and a satellite microwave snow depth dataset. The high temporal correlation coefficient (0.78) between the IMS snow cover and the in situ observations provides confidence in the station data despite the relative paucity of in situ measurement sites and the harsh operating conditions.
While several reanalyses show a systematic overestimation of the snow depth or snow cover, the reanalyses that assimilate local in situ observations or IMS snow cover are better capable of representing the shallow, transient snowpack over the TP region. The latter point is clearly demonstrated by examining the family of reanalyses from the ECMWF, of which only the older ERA-Interim assimilated IMS snow cover at high altitudes, while ERA5 did not consider IMS snow cover for high altitudes. We further tested the sensitivity of the ERA5-Land model in offline experiments, assessing the impact of blown snow sublimation, snow cover to snow depth conversion and, more importantly, excessive snowfall. These results suggest that excessive snowfall might be the primary factor for the large overestimation of snow depth and cover in ERA5 reanalysis. Pending a solution for this common model precipitation bias over the Himalayas and the TP, future snow reanalyses that optimally combine the use of satellite snow cover and in situ snow depth observations in the assimilation and analysis cycles have the potential to improve medium-range to sub-seasonal forecasts for water resources applications.
2019
Sources of ultrafine particles at a rural midland site in Switzerland
Ultrafine particles (UFPs; i.e., atmospheric aerosol particles smaller than 100 nm in diameter) are known to be responsible for a series of adverse health effects as they can deposit in humans' bodies. So far, most field campaigns studying the sources of UFPs have focused on urban environments. This study investigates the outdoor sources of UFPs at the atmospheric monitoring station in Payerne, which represents a typical rural location in Switzerland. We aim to quantify the primary and secondary fractions of UFPs based on specific measurements between July 2020 and July 2021 complementing a series of operational meteorological, trace gas and in situ aerosol observations. To distinguish between primary and secondary contributions, we use a method that relies on measuring the fraction of non-volatile particles as a proxy for primary particles. We further compare our measurement results to previously established methods. We find that primary particles resulting from traffic and residential wood burning (direct emissions – mostly non-volatile BC-rich) contribute less than 40 % to the total number of UFPs, mostly in the Aitken mode. On the other hand, we observe local new particle formation (NPF) events (observed from ∼ 1 nm) evident from the increase in cluster ions (1.5–3 nm) and nucleation-mode particle (2.5–25 nm) concentrations, especially in spring and summer. These events, mediated by sulfuric acid, contribute to increasing the UFP number concentration, especially in the nucleation mode. Besides NPF, the chemical processing of particles emitted from multiple sources (including traffic and residential wood burning) contributes substantially to the nucleation-mode particle concentration. Under the present conditions investigated here, we find that secondary processes mediate the increase in UFP concentration to levels equivalent to those in urban locations, affecting both air quality and human health.
2025
Impact of late spring Siberian snow on summer rainfall in South-Central China
Located in the Yangtze River Valley and surrounded by mountains, South-Central China (SCC) frequently suffered from natural disasters such as torrential precipitation, landslide and debris flow. Here we provide corroborative evidence for a link between the late spring (May) snow water equivalent (SWE) over Siberia and the summer (July–August, abbr. JA) rainfall in SCC. We show that, in May, anomalously low SWE over Siberia is robustly related to a large warming from the surface to the mid-troposphere, and to a stationary Rossby wave train from Siberia eastward toward the North Atlantic. On the one hand, over the North Atlantic there exhibits a tripole pattern response of sea surface temperature anomalies in May. It persists to some extent in JA and in turn triggers a wave train propagating downstream across Eurasia and along the Asian jet, as the so-called Silk Road pattern (SRP). On the other hand, over northern Siberia the drier soil occurs in JA, accompanied by an overlying anomalous anticyclone through the positive feedback. This anomalous anticyclone favors the tropospheric cooling over southern Siberia, and the meridional (northward) displacement of the Asian jet (JMD) due to the change in the meridional temperature gradient. The combination of the SRP and the JMD facilitates less water vapor transport from the tropical oceans and anomalous descending motion over SCC, and thus suppresses the precipitation. These findings indicate that May Siberian SWE can be exploited for seasonal predictability of SCC precipitation.
2020