Fant 10000 publikasjoner. Viser side 278 av 400:
Modeling the Time-Variant Dietary Exposure of PCBs in China over the Period 1930 to 2100
This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930–2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions, and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010–2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health from PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste, and food.
2018
Energetic electrons from the magnetosphere deposit their energy in the atmosphere and lead to production of nitric oxide (NO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. We study the atmospheric NO response to a geomagnetic storm in April 2010 with WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). Modeled NO is compared to observations by Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment/Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere at 72–82°S latitudes. We investigate the modeled NOs sensitivity to changes in energy and chemistry. The electron energy model input is either a parameterization of auroral electrons or a full range energy spectrum (1–750 keV) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites/Meteorological Operational satellites. To study the importance of ion chemistry for the production of NO, WACCM‐D, which has more complex ion chemistry, is used. Both standard WACCM and WACCM‐D underestimate the storm time NO increase in the main production region (90–110 km), using both electron energy inputs. At and below 80 km, including medium‐energy electrons (>30 keV) is important both for NO directly produced at this altitude region and for NO transported from other regions (indirect effect). By using WACCM‐D the direct NO production is improved, while the indirect effects on NO suffer from the downward propagating deficiency above. In conclusion, both a full range energy spectrum and ion chemistry is needed throughout the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region to increase the direct and indirect contribution from electrons on NO.
2018
2018
2018
The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives.
This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition.
This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined.
Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20% reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.
2018
In this study we apply two methods for data collection that are relatively new in the field of atmospheric science. The two developed methods are designed to collect essential geo-localized information to be used as input data for a high resolution emission inventory for residential wood combustion (RWC). The first method is a webcrawler that extracts openly online available real estate data in a systematic way, and thereafter structures them for analysis. The webcrawler reads online Norwegian real estate advertisements and it collects the geo-position of the dwellings. Dwellings are classified according to the type (e.g., apartment, detached house) they belong to and the heating systems they are equipped with. The second method is a model trained for image recognition and classification based on machine learning techniques. The images from the real estate advertisements are collected and processed to identify wood burning installations, which are automatically classified according to the three classes used in official statistics, i.e., open fireplaces, stoves produced before 1998 and stoves produced after 1998. The model recognizes and classifies the wood appliances with a precision of 81%, 85% and 91% for open fireplaces, old stoves and new stoves, respectively. Emission factors are heavily dependent on technology and this information is therefore essential for determining accurate emissions. The collected data are compared with existing information from the statistical register at county and national level in Norway. The comparison shows good agreement for the proportion of residential heating systems between the webcrawled data and the official statistics. The high resolution and level of detail of the extracted data show the value of open data to improve emission inventories. With the increased amount and availability of data, the techniques presented here add significant value to emission accuracy and potential applications should also be considered across all emission sectors.
2018
2018
Seasonal and interannual variability in surface water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and air‐sea CO2 fluxes from a West Spitsbergen fjord (IsA Station, Adventfjorden) are presented, and the associated driving forces are evaluated. Marine CO2 system data together with temperature, salinity, and nutrients, were collected at the IsA Station between March 2015 and June 2017. The surface waters were undersaturated in pCO2 with respect to atmospheric pCO2 all year round. The effects of biological activity (primary production/respiration) followed by thermal forcing on pCO2 were the most important drivers on a seasonal scale. The ocean was a sink for atmospheric CO2 with annual air‐sea CO2 fluxes of −36 ± 2 and −31 ± 2 g C·m−2·year−1 for 2015–2016 and 2016–2017, respectively, as estimated from the month of April. Waters of an Arctic origin dominated in 2015 and were replaced in 2016 by waters of a transformed Atlantic source. The CO2 uptake rates over the period of Arctic origin waters were significantly higher (2 mmol C·m−2·day−1) than the rates of the Atlantic origin waters of the following year.
2018
Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning—a reversal of the greening trend of the region—and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains elusive due to a lack of flux measurements from affected ecosystems. In this study, we report eddy covariance fluxes of CO2 from a peatland in northern Norway and show that vegetation CO2 uptake was delayed and reduced in the summer of 2014 following an extreme winter event earlier that year. Strong frost in the absence of a protective snow cover—its combined intensity unprecedented in the local climate record—caused severe dieback of the dwarf shrub species Calluna vulgaris and Empetrum nigrum. Similar vegetation damage was reported at the time along ~1000 km of coastal Norway, showing the widespread impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0–24) g C m−2 (~12% of GPP in that period)—similar to the effect of interannual variations in summer weather. Concurrently, remotely-sensed NDVI dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. However, bulk photosynthesis was eventually stimulated by the warm and sunny summer, raising total GPP. Species other than the vulnerable shrubs were probably resilient to the extreme winter event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem models to accurately predict trends in vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration in the Arctic and sub-Arctic.
2018
In the frame of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx), we analyse the budget of primary aerosols and secondary inorganic aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin during the years 2012 and 2013. To do this, we use two year-long numerical simulations with the chemistry-transport model MOCAGE validated against satellite- and ground-based measurements. The budget is presented on an annual and a monthly basis on a domain covering 29 to 47° N latitude and 10° W to 38° E longitude.
The years 2012 and 2013 show similar seasonal variations. The desert dust is the main contributor to the annual aerosol burden in the Mediterranean region with a peak in spring, and sea salt being the second most important contributor. The secondary inorganic aerosols, taken as a whole, contribute a similar level to sea salt. The results show that all of the considered aerosol types, except for sea salt aerosols, experience net export out of our Mediterranean Basin model domain, and thus this area should be considered as a source region for aerosols globally. Our study showed that 11 % of the desert dust, 22.8 to 39.5 % of the carbonaceous aerosols, 35 % of the sulfate and 9 % of the ammonium emitted or produced into the study domain are exported. The main sources of variability for aerosols between 2012 and 2013 are weather-related variations, acting on emissions processes, and the episodic import of aerosols from North American fires.
In order to assess the importance of the anthropogenic emissions of the marine and the coastal areas which are central for the economy of the Mediterranean Basin, we made a sensitivity test simulation. This simulation is similar to the reference simulation but with the removal of the international shipping emissions and the anthropogenic emissions over a 50 km wide band inland along the coast. We showed that around 30 % of the emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and 35 to 60 % of the exported carbonaceous aerosols originates from the marine and coastal areas. The formation of 23, 27 and 27 %, respectively of, ammonium, nitrate and sulfate aerosols is due to the emissions within the marine and coastal area.
2018
2018
While feathers have been successfully validated for monitoring of internal concentrations of heavy metals and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), less is known about their suitability for monitoring ofemerging con- taminants (ECs). Our study presents a broad investigation ofboth legacy POPs and ECs in non-destructivematri- ces from a bird of prey. Plasma and feathers were sampled in 2015 and 2016 from 70 whitetailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) nestlings from two archipelagos in Norway. Preen oil was also sampled in 2016. Samples were analysed for POPs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs)) and ECs (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), dechlorane plus (DPs), phosphate and novel brominated flame retardants (PFRs and NBFRs)). A total of nine PCBs, three OCPs, one PBDE and one PFAS were detected in over 50% of the plasma and feather samples within each sampling year and location. Significant and positive correlationswere found between plasma, feathers and preen oil concentrations of legacy POPs and confirm the findings ofprevious research on the usefulness of these matrices for non-destructive mon- itoring. In contrast, the suitability of feathers for ECs seems to be limited. Detection frequencies (DF) of PFASs were higher in plasma (mean DF: 78%) than in feathers (mean DF: 38%). Only perfluoroundecanoic acid could be quantified in over 50% ofboth plasma and feather samples, yet their correlation was poor and not significant. The detection frequencies of PFRs, NBFRs and DPs were very low in plasma (mean DF: 1–13%), compared to feathers (meanDF: 10–57%). Thismay suggest external atmospheric deposition, rapid internal biotransformation or excretion of these compounds. Accordingly, we suggest prioritising plasma for PFASs analyses, while the sources of PFRs, NBFRs and DPs in feathers and plasma need further investigation.
2018
This study presents a specifically designed Mercury module in a coupled benthic-pelagic reactive-transport model - Bottom RedOx Model (BROM) that allows to study mercury (Hg) biogeochemistry under different conditions. This module considers the transformation of elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and methylmercury (MeHg). The behavior of mercury species in the model is interconnected with changes of oxygen, hydrogen sulfide, iron oxides, organic matter, and biota. We simulated the transformation and transport of Hg species in the water column and upper sediment layer under five different scenarios, combining various levels of oxygenation and trophic state in the Berre lagoon, a shallow eutrophic lagoon of the French Mediterranean coast subjected to seasonal anoxia. The first scenario represents the conditions in the lagoon that are compared with experimental data. The four other scenarios were produced by varying the biological productivity, using low and high nutrient (N and P) concentrations, and by varying the redox conditions using different intensity of vertical mixing in the water column. The results of the simulation show that both oxidized and reduced sediments can accumulate Hg, but any shifts in redox conditions in bottom water and upper sediment layer lead to the release of Hg species into the water column. Eutrophication and/or restricted vertical mixing lead to reducing conditions and intensify MeHg formation in the sediment with periodic release to the water column. Oxygenation of an anoxic water body can lead to the appearance of Hg species in the water column and uptake by organisms, whereby Hg may enter into the food web. The comparison of studied scenarios shows that a well-oxygenated eutrophic system favors the conditions for Hg species bioaccumulation with a potential adverse effect on the ecosystem. The research is relevant to the UN Minimata convention, EU policies on water, environmental quality standards and Mercury in particular.
2018
Simulating CH4 and CO2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA
The increasing availability of atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from surface stations can improve the retrieval of their fluxes at higher spatial and temporal resolutions by inversions, provided that transport models are able to properly represent the variability of concentrations observed at different stations. South and East Asia (SEA; the study area in this paper including the regions of South Asia and East Asia) is a region with large and very uncertain emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), the most potent anthropogenic GHGs. Monitoring networks have expanded greatly during the past decade in this region, which should contribute to reducing uncertainties in estimates of regional GHG budgets. In this study, we simulate concentrations of CH4 and CO2 using zoomed versions (abbreviated as "ZAs") of the global chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA, which have fine horizontal resolutions of ∼ 0.66° in longitude and ∼ 0.51° in latitude over SEA and coarser resolutions elsewhere. The concentrations of CH4 and CO2 simulated from ZAs are compared to those from the same model but with standard model grids of 2.50° in longitude and 1.27° in latitude (abbreviated as "STs"), both prescribed with the same natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Model performance is evaluated for each model version at multi-annual, seasonal, synoptic and diurnal scales, against a unique observation dataset including 39 global and regional stations over SEA and around the world. Results show that ZAs improve the overall representation of CH4 annual gradients between stations in SEA, with reduction of RMSE by 16–20% compared to STs. The model improvement mainly results from reduction in representation error at finer horizontal resolutions and thus better characterization of the CH4 concentration gradients related to scattered distributed emission sources. However, the performance of ZAs at a specific station as compared to STs is more sensitive to errors in meteorological forcings and surface fluxes, especially when short-term variabilities or stations close to source regions are examined. This highlights the importance of accurate a priori CH4 surface fluxes in high-resolution transport modeling and inverse studies, particularly regarding locations and magnitudes of emission hotspots. Model performance for CO2 suggests that the CO2 surface fluxes have not been prescribed with sufficient accuracy and resolution, especially the spatiotemporally varying carbon exchange between land surface and atmosphere. In addition, the representation of the CH4 and CO2 short-term variabilities is also limited by model's ability to simulate boundary layer mixing and mesoscale transport in complex terrains, emphasizing the need to improve sub-grid physical parameterizations in addition to refinement of model resolutions.
2018
While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole‐atmosphere chemistry‐climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D‐layer of the ionosphere (50–90 km), namely, WACCM‐D. Using the specified dynamics mode, that is, nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological reanalyses, we perform a 1‐year‐long simulation (July 2009–June 2010) and contrast WACCM‐D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM‐D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium‐to‐high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The 1‐year‐long simulation allows the event‐related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium‐to‐high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion‐ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by 2 orders of magnitude from 10−4 to a few 10−2 ppb.
2018
2018
Background Prenatal exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), may influence offspring weight gain. More prospective epidemiological studies are needed to compliment the growing body of evidence from animal studies. Methods Serum from 412 pregnant Norwegian and Swedish women participating in a Scandinavian prospective cohort study were collected in 1986–88, and analyses of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and five organochlorines (OCs) were conducted. We used linear and logistic regression models with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the associations between maternal serum POP concentrations at 17–20 weeks of gestation and child overweight/obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile) at 5-year follow-up. Results were further stratified by country after testing for effect modification. We also assessed potential non-monotonic dose-response (NMDR) relationships. Results In adjusted linear models, we observed increased BMI-for-age-and-sex z-score (β = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.01–0.35), and increased triceps skinfold z-score (β = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.02–0.27) in children at 5-year follow-up per ln-unit increase in maternal serum perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) concentrations. We observed increased odds for child overweight/obesity (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) for each ln-unit increase in maternal serum PFOS levels (adjusted OR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.11–3.74), with stronger odds among Norwegian children (OR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.42–6.15). We found similar associations between maternal serum perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) concentrations and child overweight/obesity. We found indications of NMDR relationships between PFOS and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) 153 and child overweight/obesity among Swedish children. Conclusion We found positive associations between maternal serum PFAS concentrations and child overweight/obesity at 5-year follow-up, particularly among Norwegian participants. We observed some evidence for NMDR relationships among Swedish participants.
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018