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Statistical modelling for long-term trends of pollutants - Use of a GAM model for the assessment of measurements of O3, NO2 and PM

Solberg, Sverre; Walker, Sam-Erik; Guerreiro, Cristina; Colette, Augustin

The current report provides a short overview of previous years’ studies on long-term trends in O3, NO2 and PM and the role of meteorological variability for the concentration of these pollutants. The previous studies on the link between trends and meteorology has shown that these links could be estimated by a careful design of model setups using CTMs (chemical transport models). The conclusions from this work is that CTMs are certainly useful tools for explaining pollutant trends in terms of the separate impact of individual physio-chemical drivers such as emissions and meteorology although computationally demanding. The statistical GAM model that have been developed as part of the recent ETC/ACM and ETC/ATNI tasks could be considered as complementary to the use of CTMs for separating the influence of meteorological variability from other processes. The main limitation of the statistical model is that it contains no parameterisation of the real physio-chemical processes and secondly, that it relies on a local assumption, i.e. that the observed daily concentrations could be estimated based on the local meteorological data. We found clear differences in model performance both with respect to geographical area and atmospheric species. In general, the best performance was found for O3 (although not for peak levels) with gradually lower performance for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 in that order. With respect to area, the model produced the best predictions for Central Europe (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Austria, Czech Republic) and poorer agreement with observations in southern Europe. Although the GAM model did not detect many meteorology induced long-term trends in the data, the model is well suited for separating the influence of meteorology from the other driving forces, such as emissions and boundary conditions. The GAM model thus provides robust and smooth long-term trend functions corrected for meteorology as well as the perturbations from year to year, reflecting the variability in weather conditions. One could consider to define a set of performance criteria to decide if the GAM model is applicable for a specific station and parameter.

ETC/ATNI

2020

Health Risk Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe. Methodology description and 2017 results

Soares, Joana; Horálek, Jan; Ortiz, Alberto González; Guerreiro, Cristina; Gsella, Artur

This report describes the methodology applied to assess health risks across Europe in 2016, published in the European Environmental Agency’s Air Quality in Europe – 2019 report. The methodology applied is based on the work by de Leeuw and Horálek (2016), with a few adjustments. To estimate the health risk related to air pollution, the number of premature deaths and years of life lost related to exposure to fine particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide exposure were calculated for 41 countries across Europe. The results show that the largest health risks are estimated for the countries with the largest populations. However, in relative terms, when considering e.g., years of life lost per 100 000 inhabitants, the largest relative risks are observed in central and eastern European countries, and the lowest are found for the northern and north-western parts of Europe. Additionally to the assessment, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken to comprehend how much the presumed baseline concentration levels, the concentration below which no health effects are expected, affect the estimations. In addition, a benefit analysis, assuming attainment of the PM2.5 WHO guidelines across Europe, shows a reduction over 30 % of the 2017 premature deaths and years of life lost numbers.

ETC/ATNI

2020

A study of the relative expanded uncertainty formula for comparing low-cost sensor and reference measurements

Walker, Sam-Erik; Schneider, Philipp

In this report, we investigate the relative expanded uncertainty (REU) formula for comparing low-cost sensors (microsensors) and reference measurements. The purpose of the REU formula is to check if microsensor measurements follow the data quality objective (DQO) of the European Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC to be considered equivalent to a reference instrument. The project aimed to obtain a good understanding of the REU formula for its proper use in current and future projects involving microsensors.

NILU

2020

Forslag til norsk overvåkingsnettverk for å oppfylle NEC‐direktivets krav om å overvåke effekter av luftforurensing

Garmo, Øyvind Aaberg; Bakkestuen, Vegar; Solberg, Sverre; Timmermann, Volkmar; Simpson, David; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Ranneklev, Sissel Brit

Norge har et eksisterende overvåkingsnettverk for å måle effekter av luftforurensninger som forsuring, overgjødsling og
ozoneksponering i økosystemer. Ved eventuell implementering av nytt NEC‐direktiv «takdirektiv» (2016/2284/EU) må Norge
rapportere inn overvåkingsnettverk og resultater fra overvåking av effekter av luftforurensninger i økosystemer.
I denne rapporten er dagens overvåkingsnettverk vurdert med hensyn til de krav som stilles i nytt NEC‐direktiv. Resultater viste
at for innsjøer og elver er dagens overvåkingsnettverk relatert til forsuring tilfredsstillende. For overgjødsling av skog, skogsjord
og terrestrisk natur er det behov for oppgraderinger av overvåkingsnettverket. I forhold til ozonskader i vegetasjon er det behov
for oppgraderinger av dagens overvåkingsnettverk.
Det vil påløpe kostnader for opprettelse av nye overvåkingsstasjoner og oppgraderinger av dagens overvåkingsnettverk.
Estimerte kostnader for å dekke mangler i eksisterende overvåkingsnettverk er angitt i rapporten.

Norsk institutt for vannforskning (NIVA)

2020

Emissions outsourcing in the EU. A review of potential effects on industrial pollution.

Abbasi, Golnoush; Bouman, Evert

This study reviews potential evidence for emissions outsourcing in the European Union as the reduction in industrial emissions in Europe may be linked to the relocation of industry abroad (i.e. away from Europe). Emission trends of selected industrial pollutants to air (PAH, SOx, B(a)P, PCB, Pb, Zn and Ni) were established for both domestic emissions and embodied emissions in imports using available data in the EXIOBASE environmentally extended multiregional input-output system. Despite the overall decreasing trends of domestic emissions in Europe, a great variation was observed in the decrease rate of direct emissions and the increase rates in embodied emissions, due to increasing import of associated products. In addition to the analysis of data in EXIOBASE, a review of literature shows that industries’ responses to environmental regulations differ greatly based on the nature of industrial activities. Despite imposing higher costs to industries, no evidence was found in the reviewed literature that European environmental regulations caused industries to relocate. However, once industries aim to relocate outside of Europe to benefit from economic factors, such as lowering their production cost, the degree by which environmental regulations are enforced in the country of relocation can play a significant role in selecting their new location.

ETC/ATNI

2020

Måling av NO2 ved E16/E39 Arna – Vågsbotn – Klauvaneset med passive prøvetakere. Februar og mars 2020.

Hak, Claudia

Kartlegging av NO2-konsentrasjoner i luft ved E16 Arna – Vågsbotn ble utført av NILU på oppdrag fra Statens vegvesen.
Målingene ble utført med passive prøvetakere ved 10 steder i området Gaupås-Kalsås-Blinde. Prosjektet ble gjennomført
vinteren 2020 (28. januar – 24. mars) i et område som er utsatt for inversjonsforhold i vintermånedene.
Vinteren 2019-2020 viste seg til å bli en mild vinter, inversjonsforhold ble ikke registrert. NO2-konsentrasjonen var høyest den første uken målingene pågikk og ble gradvis lavere i påfølgende uker. De siste 2 ukene var påvirket av mindre trafikk som en følge av pandemitiltak. Middelkonsentrasjonen ved det mest forurensede målestedet over hele måleperioden var 22,9 μg/m3. Sammenligning av resultatene fra måleområdet med observasjoner fra målestasjoner i Bergen viste at NO2-konsentrasjonen rett ved E16 var på samme nivå som ved veinære stasjoner i Bergen.

NILU

2020

Convention on long-range transboundary air pollution. UN/ECE international co-operative programme on effects on materials, including historic and cultural monuments. Environmental data report. October 2017 to November 2018.

Grøntoft, Terje; Roux, Marta Segura

This report presents the ICP Materials database for the period October 2017 - November 2018. It includes environmental data from the ICP Materials trend exposure programme for 2017 - 2018, and in addition, data for temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation amount back to the end of the previous annual exposure porgramme in October/November 2015. The database consists of meteorological data (T, RH and precipitation amount) and pollution data, as gas concentrations, amounts of ions in precipitation, particle concentrations and amounts of particle deposition.

NILU

2020

A life cycle perspective on the benefits of renewable electricity generation

Bouman, Evert

In this report, the benefits of the use of RES to produce electricity are investigated from a life cycle perspective. Six different impact indicators for the production of electricity are estimated for all Member States in the period 2005 to 2018 for a total of sixteen different renewable and non-RES. Results show variability in impact intensities across Member States and years, depending among others on fuel conversion efficiency (for electricity produced using combustion processes) and capacity utilization (for electricity producing from non-combustion processes, such as wind power). Finally, an estimate is given on gross avoided impact by comparing historic values to a counterfactual scenario where the level of electricity production from RES is frozen at 2005 level. Results show that the increased use of photovoltaic and wind power have contributed significantly to gross avoided impacts across the investigated impact indicators. A trade-off is that the increased use of PV appears to have increased potential ecotoxicity related impacts of the European electricity production system. The increased use of solid biomass for the generation of electricity and heat generally has a positive effect on avoided impacts, at the cost of increased potential land occupation. Overall, these finding can aid policy makers and private actors direct efforts towards specific areas which offer opportunities to decrease the impacts.

ETC/CME

2020

A life cycle perspective on the benefits of renewable electricity generation – Methodology and assumptions

Bouman, Evert

This report details the methodology and assumptions for the ETC/CME report: A life cycle perspective on the benefits of renewable electricity generation. In that report, gross avoided potential environmental impacts are estimated for electricity production in the EU-27 in the period 2005-2018. Avoided potential impacts are calculated by comparing the actual data with a counterfactual scenario where electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources is frozen at 2005 levels.

The overall methodological approach to the study is described in this report together with a short mathematical treatment of the calculation of life cycle indicators and subsequent scaling up to produce the two scenarios required to estimate gross avoided potential impacts. A short overview of data sources used in the study is included as well as a discussion and recommendations for the future.

ETC/CME

2020

Transboundary particulate matter, photo-oxidants, acidifying and eutrophying components

Fagerli, Hilde; Tsyro, Svetlana; Jonson, Jan Eiof; Nyiri, Agnes; Simpson, David; Wind, Peter; Benedictow, Anna Maria Katarina; Klein, Heiko; Mu, Qing; Denby, Bruce; Wærsted, Eivind Grøtting; Aas, Wenche; Eckhardt, Sabine; Hjellbrekke, Anne-Gunn; Solberg, Sverre; Platt, Stephen Matthew; Yttri, Karl Espen; Tørseth, Kjetil; Mareckova, Katarina; Matthews, Bradley; Schindlbacher, Sabine; Ullrich, Bernhard; Wankmüller, Robert; Scheuschner, Thomas; Bergström, Robert; Gon, Hugo A.C. Denier van der; Kuenen, Jeroen J.P.; Visschedijk, Antoon J.H.; Reimann, Stefan; Hill, Matthias; Claude, Anja

Meteorologisk institutt

2020

Esso Slagentangen. Resultater 2019 og oppsummering 2017-2019.

Berglen, Tore Flatlandsmo; Nilsen, Anne-Cathrine; Våler, Rita Larsen

NILU

2020

Feasibility study for asphalt rubber pavements in Norway. ‘Rubber Road’ feasibility study.

Bouman, Evert; Meland, Sondre; Furuseth, Ingvild Skumlien; Tarrasón, Leonor

RubberRoad proposes to use rubber from used tires in the production of asphalt for road and bicycle ways. This recycling approach has not gained much attention in Norway despite its apparent advantages, such as noise reduction, increased durability, safer shock impact, and reduced climate and environmental impacts. The Life Cycle Analysis carried out during this project feasibility study has demonstrated a series of environmental benefits in the use of rubber in asphalt production. It has also helped identify relevant knowledge gaps related to the use phase of the rubberized asphalt and its impact to noise, air and micro-plastic pollution. Better understanding of these effects would probably result in even larger environmental benefits of rubberized asphalt with respect to standard asphalt production. However, while the tire recycling industry is generally positive to the disposal of used tires in asphalt production, additional incentives need to be put in place for the Norwegian asphalt producers to consider actively contributing to this development.

NILU

2020

Monitoring of environmental contaminants in air and precipitation. Annual report 2019.

Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Aas, Wenche; Nikiforov, Vladimir

This report presents environmental monitoring data from 2019 and time-trends for the Norwegian programme for Long-range atmospheric transported contaminants. The results cover 200 organic compounds (regulated and non-regulated), 11 heavy metals, and organic chemicals of potential Arctic concern.

NILU

2020

Assessment of transboundary pollution by toxic substances: Heavy metals and POPs

Travnikov, Oleg; Batrakova, Nadezhda; Gusev, Aleksey; Ilyin, Ilia; Kleimenov, Mikhail; Rozovskaya, Olga; Shatalov, Victor; Strijkina, Irina; Aas, Wenche; Breivik, Knut; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Pfaffhuber, Katrine Aspmo; Mareckova, Katarina; Poupa, Stephan; Wankmüller, Robert; Seussall, Katrin

Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East (MSC-E)

2020

Survey of emissions of volatile organic chemicals from handheld toys for children above 3 years

Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Schmidbauer, Norbert

NILU has, on behalf of the Norwegian Environment Agency, performed a screening study to identify volatile organic chemicals (VOCs) emitted from handheld toys for children. The goal was to identify individual VOCs emitted from toys at room temperature and to evaluate what impact the toys may have on the composition and concentrations of VOCs in indoor air. 12-30 individual VOCs were identified in each toy and 65-143 individual VOCs were detected with a concentration higher than 1 µg/m3. VOCs emitted at high concentrations and/or with hazardous properties were cyclohexanone, aromatic VOCs (xylenes, toluene, ethylbenzene), cyclic siloxanes and 2,2,4-Trimethyl-1,3-pentanediol diisobutyrate (TXIB). A regulated hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC-141 b) was also detected from 5 toys. The toys with high concentrations of cyclohexanone and cyclic siloxanes affected the composition and concentrations of VOCs in indoor air.

NILU

2020

Heavy metals and POP measurements, 2018

Aas, Wenche; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla

NILU

2020

Revidert tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Stavanger

Weydahl, Torleif; Høiskar, Britt Ann Kåstad; Johnsrud, Mona; Ranheim, Patrick

Tiltaksutredningen for lokal luftkvalitet i Stavanger, med handlingsplan og tiltak, skal bidra til at forurensningsnivået holder seg innenfor kravene i forurensningsforskriften. I tillegg belyser denne utredningen tiltak som vil være med på å redusere nivåene sammenlignet med helsemyndighetenes anbefaling til luftkvalitet. Tiltaksutredningen omfatter en kartlegging av luftkvaliteten i Stavanger ved trafikkberegninger og utslipps- og spredningsberegninger for PM10, PM2,5 og NO2 for Dagens situasjon 2018 og Framtidig situasjon 2024 med og uten tiltak. Basert på resultatene fra beregningene og i samarbeid med oppdragsgiver, er det foreslått en revidert handlings- og beredskapsplan som skal behandles politisk.

NILU

2020

Towards better exploitation of Satellite data for monitoring Air Quality in Norway using downscaling techniques (SAT4AQN). Final project report.

Stebel, Kerstin; Schneider, Philipp; Kylling, Arve; Svendby, Tove Marit

The main goal for the “Towards better exploitation of Satellite data for monitoring Air Quality in Norway using
downscaling techniques” (Sat4AQN) project was to evaluate the potential of spatially downscaling satellite data using a
high-resolution Chemical Transport Model (CTM) to spatial scales that are more relevant for monitoring air quality in
urban areas and regional background sites in Norway. For this demonstration project, we focused on satellite aerosol
optical density (AOD) and particulate matter (PM) estimates.

NILU

2020

NILU's contribution to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals

Liu, Hai-Ying; Lopez-Aparicio, Susana; Halse, Anne Karine; Eckhardt, Sabine; Guerreiro, Cristina

NILU

2020

Støvmålinger Skjerkøya. Målinger av nedfallsstøv ved Ragn-Sells Dekkgjenvinning, Bamble.

Berglen, Tore Flatlandsmo; Andresen, Erik; Kihle, Jan; Opøien, Geir

NILU

2020

VANDAM Final Report. June 2020.

Fjæraa, Ann Mari; Schneider, Philipp; Svendby, Tove Marit

The current document summaries the work carried out in the PRODEX project NILU VANDAM: PEA: 4000118977.

NILU

2020

Air quality in Europe - 2020 report

Ortiz, Alberto González; Guerreiro, Cristina; Soares, Joana; Antognazza, Frederico; Gsella, Artur; Houssiau, Michel; Liberti, Luca; Lükewille, Anke; Öztürk, Evrim; Horálek, Jan; Banyuls, Lorena; Targa, Jaume; Schneider, Philipp; Solberg, Sverre; Walker, Sam-Erik; Colette, Augustin

The Air quality in Europe report provides an annual assessment of the status and impacts of air quality and recent air quality trends. The report supports policy development and implementation in the field of air quality at both European and national levels.

European Environment Agency

2020

MetVed v.2.0. Improvement and update of the MetVed emission model for residential wood combustion

Grythe, Henrik; Lopez-Aparicio, Susana

This report presents the update of the MetVed-model (Grythe et al., 2019). Among the updates are new emission factors and several new species that include climate gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). There is now a new parameter that describes the emission altitude and a new and improved time variation. Activity data has been updated to the most recent year (2019), which also has required updates to the model and model input variables. The largest update has been the holiday cabin emission module, which is an entirely new addition. Emissions from cabins differ in several ways from residential emissions. The most notable difference is that cabins are spread over more rural areas and are more dispersed than the residential dwellings. The model differentiates alpine and coastal cabins, which is an important distinction as a high density of cabins exists along the coast and they are mainly used during summer.

NILU

2020

Monitoring of greenhouse gases and aerosols at Svalbard and Birkenes in 2019. Annual report.

Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Svendby, Tove Marit; Hermansen, Ove; Lunder, Chris Rene; Platt, Stephen Matthew; Fiebig, Markus; Fjæraa, Ann Mari; Hansen, Georg H.; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Krognes, Terje

The report summarizes the activities and results of the greenhouse gas monitoring at the Zeppelin Observatory, situated on Svalbard in Arctic Norway, during the period 2001-2019, and the greenhouse gas monitoring and aerosol observations from Birkenes for 2009-2019.

NILU

2020

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