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Critical review of the atmospheric composition observing capabilities for monitoring and forecasting
WMO
2025
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2O emissions across the NHL during 1861–2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p
2025
2025
2025
This report presents data from the fourth year of a five-year period of the MILFERSK program. In 2024, the monitoring program focused on the sampling and analysis of the benthic food chain in Lake Mjøsa, encompassing the following sample types: Chironomids, Ruffe, Perch, Pike and the stomach contents of ruffe. Additionally, brown trout from the pelagic zone in Lake Mjøsa were collected and analyzed, with the contaminant levels compared to samples of brown trout from the reference lake, Femunden. The concentrations of 175 individual compounds/isomers were determined, with frequent detections of specific per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), mercury (Hg), and siloxanes exhibiting biomagnifying properties throughout the food chain. Certain contaminants, such as quaternary ammonium compounds, were found in higher concentrations in sediment and lower trophic levels. Concentrations of chlorinated paraffins (CPs), particularly medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) were higher in chironomids, ruffe, and the livers of perch and pike, compared to levels observed in 2021 and 2022, with an increase up the food chain in 2024. A slight downward trend in perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) concentrations was observed in Lake Mjøsa from 2014 – 2024. Additionally, a lower length-adjusted mercury concentration was noted for brown trout in Lake Mjøsa during the period from 2015 to 2024, compared to the preceding nine years (2006 – 2014).
Norsk institutt for vannforskning (NIVA)
2025
2025
2025
Abstract. Establishing interlaboratory compatibility among measurements of stable isotope ratios of atmospheric methane (δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4) is challenging. Significant offsets are common because laboratories have different ties to the VPDB or SMOW-SLAP scales. Umezawa et al. (2018) surveyed numerous comparison efforts for CH4 isotope measurements conducted from 2003 to 2017 and found scale offsets of up to 0.5 ‰ for δ13C-CH4 and 13 ‰ for δD-CH4 between laboratories. This exceeds the World Meteorological Organisation Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO-GAW) network compatibility targets of 0.02 ‰ and 1 ‰ considerably. We employ a method to establish scale offsets between laboratories using their reported CH4 isotope measurements on atmospheric samples. Our study includes data from eight laboratories with experience in high-precision isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) measurements for atmospheric CH4. The analysis relies exclusively on routine atmospheric measurements conducted by these laboratories at high-latitude stations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, where we assume each measurement represents sufficiently well-mixed air at the latitude for direct comparison. We use two methodologies for interlaboratory comparisons: (I) assessing differences between time-adjacent observation data and (II) smoothing the observed data using polynomial and harmonic functions before comparison. The results of both methods are consistent, and with a few exceptions, the overall average offsets between laboratories align well with those reported by Umezawa et al. (2018). This indicates that interlaboratory offsets remain robust over multi-year periods. The evaluation of routine measurements allows us to calculate the interlaboratory offsets from hundreds, in some cases thousands of measurements. Therefore, the uncertainty in the mean interlaboratory offset is not limited by the analytical error of a single analysis but by real atmospheric variability between the sampling dates and stations. Using the same method, we assess this uncertainty by investigating measurements from four high-latitude sites analysed by the INSTAAR laboratory. After applying the derived interlaboratory offsets, we present a harmonised time series for δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 at high northern and southern latitudes, covering the period from 1988 to 2023.
2025
2025
Spatial and temporal assessment of soil degradation risk in Europe
Soil degradation threatens agricultural productivity and ecosystem resilience across Europe, yet spatially consistent assessments of its intensity and drivers remain limited. In this study, we used Soil Degradation Proxy (SDP), that integrates four key indicators of soil degradation, including erosion rate, soil pH, electrical conductivity, and organic carbon content, to quantify soil degradation risk. Using over 38,000 LUCAS topsoil observations and a machine learning model trained on climate, land cover, topographic, soil parent material properties, and spectral variables, we map annual SDP values between years 2000 to 2022 across Europe. Results show soil degradation risk is highest in southern Europe, especially in intensively managed and sparsely vegetated landscapes. Over the past two decades, approximately 7.1% of land area across the EU and the UK has experienced increasing degradation risk (most notably across Eastern Europe), with rainfed croplands emerging as the most affected land cover type. Land cover is the most influential driver, modulating effects of climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature on SDP. This data-driven framework provides a consistent and scalable approach for monitoring soil degradation risk and offers actionable insights to support targeted conservation and EU-wide policy implementation.
2025
Towards Net Zero: Evaluating Combined Terrestrial and Marine CDR Approaches
With the global annual mean temperature in 2024 exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, there is an urgent need to investigate pathways for returning the Earth system to lower temperature levels. In addition to stringent emission reduction, we need portfolios of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques to achieve the net-zero emission target. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate various land and ocean-based CDRs for their effectiveness, environmental risks, and additional benefits.
This study evaluates the CO₂ sequestration potential and efficacy of two prominent CDR methods—Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE)—applied both individually and in combination. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2-LM), simulations were designed with ramped-up CDR deployment, targeting 5.2 million km² of bioenergy feedstock for BECCS and a CaO deployment rate of 2.7 Gt/year for OAE by 2100 across the exclusive economic zones of Europe, the United States, and China. The results reveal a nearly additive carbon removal effect of BECCS and OAE. Over the period 2030-2100, OAE sequestered a total of 7 ppm of CO2 with an accumulated 82.3 Gt CaO, achieving a CDR effectiveness of 0.08 ppm per Gt of CaO, while BECCS removes 23 ppm of CO2, with CDR effectiveness of 3.1 ppm per million km² of bioenergy crops. The combined BECCS-OAE simulation offsets anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 5.4 Gt/year by 2100—equivalent to over 60% of current global transport sector emissions. However, the combined CDR scenario shows negligible effects on the global annual mean temperature, with no clear response detectable against the high internal variability. This underscores the limitations of current CDR approaches in addressing climate warming over the 21st century and emphasizes the need for substantial emissions reductions, supportive policies and diversified CDR strategies to facilitate a return to lower global temperatures.
2025
Methane emissions from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks
The amount of methane released to the atmosphere from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks remains uncertain, as reflected in a wide range of estimates1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18. A lack of information regarding the temporal variation in atmospheric emissions has made it challenging to reconcile pipeline volumetric (bottom-up) estimates1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 with measurement-based (top-down) estimates8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18. Here we simulate pipeline rupture emission rates and integrate these with methane dissolution and sea-surface outgassing estimates9,10 to model the evolution of atmospheric emissions from the leaks. We verify our modelled atmospheric emissions by comparing them with top-down point-in-time emission-rate estimates and cumulative emission estimates derived from airborne11, satellite8,12,13,14 and tall tower data. We obtain consistency between our modelled atmospheric emissions and top-down estimates and find that 465 ± 20 thousand metric tons of methane were emitted to the atmosphere. Although, to our knowledge, this represents the largest recorded amount of methane released from a single transient event, it is equivalent to 0.1% of anthropogenic methane emissions for 2022. The impact of the leaks on the global atmospheric methane budget brings into focus the numerous other anthropogenic methane sources that require mitigation globally. Our analysis demonstrates that diverse, complementary measurement approaches are needed to quantify methane emissions in support of the Global Methane Pledge19.
2025
This study examines the environmental impacts of urban growth in Warsaw since 2006 and models the implications of future urban development for traffic pollutant emissions and pollution levels. Our findings demonstrate that, over the past two decades, urban sprawl has resulted in decreases in accessibility to public transport, social services, and natural areas. We analyse CO2 traffic emissions, NO2 concentrations, and population exposure across urban areas in future scenarios of further sprawling or alternative compacting land-use development. Results indicate that a compact future scenario reduces transport CO2 emissions and urban NO2 levels, though increases in population density raise exposure to air pollution. A sprawl future scenario increases CO2 and NOx emissions due to longer commutes and congestion, and NO2 levels increase up to 25% in parts of the city. Several traffic abatement strategies were simulated, and in all simulations a compact city consistently yields the largest reductions in CO2 emissions and NO2 levels, implying that the best abatement strategy for combating negative consequences of sprawl is to reduce sprawling. In both city layouts, network-wide improvements of public transport travel times gave significantly reduced emissions. Combined, our findings highlight the importance of co-beneficial urban planning strategies to balance CO2 emissions reduction, and air pollution exposure in expanding cities.
2025
Potato plant disease detection: leveraging hybrid deep learning models
Agriculture, a crucial sector for global economic development and sustainable food production, faces significant challenges in detecting and managing crop diseases. These diseases can greatly impact yield and productivity, making early and accurate detection vital, especially in staple crops like potatoes. Traditional manual methods, as well as some existing machine learning and deep learning techniques, often lack accuracy and generalizability due to factors such as variability in real-world conditions. This study proposes a novel approach to improve potato plant disease detection and identification using a hybrid deep-learning model, EfficientNetV2B3+ViT. This model combines the strengths of a Convolutional Neural Network - EfficientNetV2B3 and a Vision Transformer (ViT). It has been trained on a diverse potato leaf image dataset, the “Potato Leaf Disease Dataset”, which reflects real-world agricultural conditions. The proposed model achieved an accuracy of 85.06, representing an 11.43 improvement over the results of the previous study. These results highlight the effectiveness of the hybrid model in complex agricultural settings and its potential to improve potato plant disease detection and identification.
2025
2025
A worldwide aerosol phenomenology: Elemental and organic carbon in PM2.5 and PM10
Elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the inhalable (PM10) and fine (PM2.5) size fractions are measured worldwide, albeit with different analytical methods. These measurements from many researchers were collected and analyzed for Africa, America, Asia, and Europe for 2012–2019. EC/PM, OC/PM, and OC/EC ratios were examined based on region, site type, and season to infer potential sources and impacts. These analyses demonstrate that carbonaceous materials are important PM constituents throughout the world. Mean EC/PM ratios were lowest in PM10 in Sahelian Africa and Europe (∼0.01), highest (>0.07) in PM2.5 at urban sites in North America, South America, and Japan. Mean OC/PM ratios were lowest in PM10 in the Sahel (∼0.06) and in PM2.5 in China and Thailand (0.10), and highest in central and eastern Europe (∼0.3) and North America (∼0.4). OC/EC ratios were elevated in western and northern Europe, and at regional background sites in North America. EC/PM increased with PM10 in Thailand, while OC/PM increased with higher PM mass in Thailand, India, and North America, highlighting the specific contribution of carbonaceous aerosols to PM pollution in these regions. At European and North American background sites, OC/EC ratios increased with PM mass. Higher OC/EC ratios in dry periods indicate influence of wildfires, prescribed burns, and secondary aerosol formation. Elevated wintertime EC/PM ratios coincide with residential heating in temperate climate zones.
2025
Monitoring of the atmospheric ozone layer and natural ultraviolet radiation. Annual report 2024
This report summarizes the results from the Norwegian monitoring programme on stratospheric ozone and UV radiation measurements. The ozone layer has been measured at three locations since 1979: In Oslo/Kjeller, Tromsø/Andøya and Ny-Ålesund. The UV measurements started in 1995. The results show that there was a significant decrease in stratospheric ozone above Norway between 1979 and 1997. After that, the ozone layer stabilized at a level ~2% below pre-1980 level. The year 2024 was characterized by high total ozone values most of the year, especially in the Arctic stations in March. For Ny-Ålesund, 2024 showed the highest annual average total ozone value since systematic ground-based ozone measurements started in 1997.
NILU
2025