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2026
Climate change is expected to intensify the frequency and severity of droughts across Europe,
posing significant risks to agricultural production and the food systems that depend on it. As drought
severity can range widely within one country, estimates of supply chains with higher spatial
resolution are needed to characterize drought risk exposure. This study develops an inter-regional
(NUTS-2) version of the Food and Agriculture Biomass Input Output (FABIO)[1] model to quantify
the exposure of European food trade to drought risk under current and future climate conditions.
Drought exposure is quantified by linking regional agricultural trade flows to Copernicus
satellite-based soil moisture anomaly data.
Input output (IO) analysis has been widely used to study supply-chain dependencies, resource
use, and environmental pressures embedded in production and trade. The development of
multi-regional input output (MRIO) databases, which combine national IO tables into a single
balanced global framework, has enabled such analyses at the global scale. Prominent examples
include EXIOBASE[2], Eora[3], and FIGARO[4], which have been applied to assess environmental
impacts embodied in trade. However, while these databases provide global coverage, their
national-level resolution limits their ability to capture spatially heterogeneous climate risks such as
droughts, which often vary substantially within countries. Subnational or interregional IO tables are
rarely published due to data and resource constraints, creating a critical gap for climate risk
assessments that require finer spatial detail.
This study extends FABIO[1], an established physical MRIO framework for food, feed, and biomass
flows, into an interregional European model. The interregional FABIO disaggregates national food
trade into NUTS2-level trade using regional crop and livestock production, regional demand, and
reported trade flows. The FABIO database is regionalized following two main steps, similarly to
Ouyang et al[5]. First, international trade is estimated using reported subnational trade data where
available, subject to the constraints that regional exports and imports do not exceed supply and
demand, and that national totals remain consistent with the original FABIO data. Second, domestic
interregional flows are estimated using the CHARM approach in combination with a gravity model[6].
The model distinguishes 67 sectors and 332 NUTS 2 regions.
Using this framework, drought exposure is assessed by linking regional agricultural trade with
satellite-based drought intensity metrics, considering both historical events and projected future
conditions. The results show that accounting for trade significantly increases estimated drought
exposure of food consumption in Northern Europe compared with production-based assessments.
Exposure varies strongly across food categories; non-essential commodities are generally more
exposed than staple foods. Trade can both amplify and buffer drought impacts, depending on the
geographic extent of the drought and the availability of alternative sourcing regions.
Overall, this study demonstrates the value of combining interregional input output modeling with
satellite-based climate indicators to assess the vulnerability of European food trade to droughts. The
results reveal the exposure to drought risk in regions and support the design of diversification and
resilience strategies in agricultural supply chains. The annual resolution of the model, consistent
with input output tables and available trade data, cannot capture dynamics such as monthly stock
variations that can be critical for drought impacts, and merits further research. Beyond drought risk
assessment, the interregional FABIO framework can be applied to other spatially explicit
environmental questions, including consumption-based analyses of nitrogen emissions, land use,
and other local pressures.
2026
A machine learning method for estimating atmospheric trace gas concentration baselines
Estimates of trace gas baseline mole fractions in high-frequency atmospheric measurement records are crucial for analysing long-term changes in atmospheric composition. Baseline mole fractions are those that would be observed far from emission sources (and hence are representative of background conditions). Previous methods for inferring baseline mole fractions have used statistical or meteorological approaches, or, if available, co-measured tracer species thought only to be emitted from non-baseline wind sectors. Combinations of these techniques have also been employed in some applications. Statistical methods typically fit a baseline to the observations themselves, while meteorological methods use atmospheric models of varying complexity to categorise air mass origins. In this paper, we present a novel machine learning method for estimating trace gas baseline mole fractions, which benefits from the physical basis of model-based filtering without the need for running an expensive simulator. Our approach offers the accessibility and computational cost-effectiveness of statistical models, without the associated smoothing or difficulty in identifying rapid baseline variations. By training on historical Lagrangian particle dispersion model outputs, our model learns to predict baseline mole fractions directly from meteorological fields. This advancement opens new avenues for low-latency trace gas time series data analysis, reconstruction of historical baseline trends, and improved utilisation of tracer measurement air mass classification methods.
2026
A Global Compendium of Nature-based Solutions in Small-Medium Islands
Small and medium-sized islands (SMI) combine high ecological value with limited resources and vulnerability to climatic and environmental risks. Nature-based solutions (NbS) can contribute to addressing some of these challenges, but studies on the uptake and effectiveness of NbS in SMI remain scattered, with few systematic syntheses. Here, we introduce the SMI-NbS compendium, a comprehensive and open-access dataset compiling 280 NbS case studies implemented across SMI worldwide, developed through a systematic review of published and grey literature. Each SMI-NbS case study includes information on the location, NbS category, ecosystem types, societal challenges addressed, associated co-benefits, and links to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SMI-NbS compendium provides practical information on NbS implementation and identifies current research trends and gaps, such as the dominance of ecological and climate-focused NbS, with limited integration of other socio-economic challenges, thereby supporting further research and enabling knowledge exchange across the science-policy-practice interface to inform sustainable development pathways in SMI.
2026
Scaling number concentration measurements from bioaerosol monitors using Hirst-type samplers
The instruments used for routine pollen monitoring are gradually changing from traditional impactors with manual data processing to automated pollen monitors using deterministic and/or machine-learning algorithms for data analysis. This manuscript compares pollen number concentration of Alnus sp., Betula sp., Corylus sp., and Poaceae measured by Hirst-type bioaerosol samplers and the SwisensPoleno automated bioaerosol monitor in Switzerland and Norway. Due to physical particle losses and the classification rate of the algorithms being well below unity, scaling factors had to be applied to the measurements of the SwisensPoleno to match those of the Hirst impactor. These scaling factors depended on the geographic location, i.e. differed significantly between Switzerland and Norway. The importance of adjusting the scaling factors according to the location of the monitoring network and the need for reporting the numerical values of these scaling factors in future scientific publications is emphasized.
2026
Inverse modelling is employed to reconcile greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories, based on bottom-up methods, with the observed atmospheric GHG concentrations. The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) was created to unify inverse-model developments and simplify the generation of inversions. It makes atmospheric transport models and inversion algorithms easily interchangeable and facilitates the comparison of inversion results obtained using such diverse components.After several years of development and the coupling of CIF with a wide range of transport models used by the inversion community, we present the first intercomparison study conducted with CIF. This exercise focuses on Europe and aims to refine CO₂ natural emissions for the year 2019, following a strict protocol. It involves five transport models (CHIMERE, ICON-ART, LMDz, STILT, and WRF-CHEM) and two inversion algorithms (variational and ensemble-based). Two additional transport models, TM5 and FLEXPART, will be incorporated in the near future.The results show a good agreement, both across transport models, and inversion algorithms. It paves the way towards using CIF as an operational tool for intercomparison studies. It also highlights its strong potential to support the systematic derivation of GHG budgets with multiple transport models, enable a proper and easy quantification of the modelling uncertainty, and improve the robustness of emission estimates, for any relevant atmospheric species, at any scale.
2026
2026
Promoting healthy lifestyle behaviors, including physical activity, sleep, diet, stress management, and healthy habits, requires adaptive systems capable of responding to dynamic changes in human behavior. Sustained behavioral change improves individual wellbeing, reduces disease risk, and contributes to healthier societies. However, developing personalized behavioral intervention systems is challenged by demographic heterogeneity, limited and fragmented datasets, reporting inconsistencies, and scarce high-quality labeled data. Ethical, privacy, and cost constraints further restrict the collection of large-scale longitudinal behavioral data. Consequently, there is a need for robust simulation and synthetic data generation frameworks that enable the development and evaluation of adaptive decision-making systems capable of optimizing personalized behavioral interventions over time. This study presents a digital twin framework integrated with tabular Q-learning for personalized behavioral recommendation under World Health Organization (WHO) lifestyle constraints. The framework combines synthetic behavioral data generation, reinforcement learning, and a TSP-inspired planning mechanism to investigate long-term behavioral adaptation in privacy-preserving simulated environments. The digital twin environment models user adherence variability, misreporting, dropout, and behavioral drift, enabling the evaluation of intervention strategies under realistic conditions. Experimental evaluation on synthetic populations demonstrates that Q-learning achieves competitive reward performance while maintaining favorable computational efficiency and stability compared with heuristic and reinforcement learning baselines. Statistical analysis indicates that reward differences among the evaluated methods are not significant; however, the proposed framework provides a flexible platform for adaptive behavioral recommendation and simulation-based experimentation. Furthermore, a real-time recommendation interface illustrates how simulation knowledge can be translated into actionable behavioral guidance. The proposed framework offers a scalable foundation for future digital health systems, particularly in scenarios where data scarcity, privacy constraints, and personalization requirements limit the use of real-world datasets.
2026
Fluoropolymers are widely used across sectors, but their production is associated with emissions of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), which are mobile, persistent, and toxic. In this work, we compiled a global inventory of fluoropolymer production plants (FPPs) and assembled PFAS concentration measurements for various media in their vicinity. We identified 52 currently operating FPPs across 11 countries and 41 cities. For 12 FPPs, in 12 different cities, there are peer-reviewed site-specific PFAS measurements specifically attributed to the FPP. At these 12 sites, at least 236 individual PFASs have been detected across multiple environmental media, including surface water, groundwater, air, dust, soils, sediments, plants, animals, and humans, with reported detections at distances of up to approximately 150 km from FPPs. Perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl ether carboxylic acids (PFECAs) were most frequently measured, often at concentrations two to three orders of magnitude higher than those measured in regions without nearby FPPs. Using high-resolution population data, we estimate that approximately 14 ± 2 million people (uncertainty reflecting ± 10 km uncertainty in facility locations) live within 10 km of an FPP. These people are potentially affected by FPP-associated contamination, with the largest population shares in China (≈52%), Japan (≈24%), Europe (≈13%), and the United States (≈9%). These regional proportions largely mirror differences in population density and the number of identified production facilities. This inventory reveals the large and complex global scale of PFAS contamination from fluoropolymer production, underscoring the need for expanded systematic monitoring and risk management efforts, including regulation.
2026
2026
Bioaerosols interact with society and environment in a multi-faceted way. Information about biological aerosols in the atmosphere is at high demand for medical practitioners and allergy sufferers, climate change researchers, agriculture and forestry industries, air quality forecasters, a variety of information added-value businesses, and many other stakeholders. However, the monitoring practices established over 70 years ago and barely changed since then are country-specific, with varying data availability and usage policy. These roadblocks slow down cross-disciplinary research and development of measures to understand and, upon necessity, control societal and environmental impacts of bioaerosols.A series of technological breakthroughs during last 10 years introduced a variety of automatic particle counters capable of bioaerosol monitoring in real time. They paved the way to the volunteering consolidation of European aerobiologists to establish the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme (www.autopollen.net), laid down the foundation for the bioaerosol monitoring infrastructure with the EU Horizon SYLVA project (A SYstem for reaL-time obserVation of Aeroallergens, https://sylva.bioaerosol.eu), initiated developments of European standards and guidelines for the automatic bioaerosol measurements with the EURAMET project BioAirMet, and started the European standardization effort with CEN WG 39.The new technologies allow to observe bioaerosol concentration in real time, analyze vertical concentration profiles via remote-sensing, perform metagenomic analysis of bioaerosols with the 3rd generation DNA sequencing technique, and combine these observations with atmospheric composition models. Newly established regional networks have been connected to regional atmospheric composition models, which assimilate the real-time regional data to improve the forecasts. It changes the existing paradigm of bioaerosol observations as the new monitoring networks involve large-scale data handling infrastructure, which also includes numerical models as an interface between the different technologies and a bridge to users of information.The new observations heavily rely on sophisticated technologies, such as high-resolution image analysis, holography, multi-band scatterometry and fluorescence spectrometry, lidar-based remote sensing, and nanotechnology for DNA sequencing. A particle recognition task, the key challenge for the new devices, is solved via machine learning approaches. Technological complexity of the new instruments and large amounts of raw data they produce have been recognized, and a European-scale solution has been proposed by AutoPollen/SYLVA. AutoPollen is being converted into a EUMETNET operational programme with the SYLVA infrastructure as its technological backbone. The programme, with support of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu), ACTRIS aerosol monitoring network, and other stakeholders, will become operational from 2027. The central processing system will be hosted by Finnish Meteorological Institute with support of MeteoSwiss, Technical University of Munich, and all SYLVA partners. The pre-operational work of AutoPollen/SYLVA started already in 2025, owing to the efforts of the SYLVA consortium, its sister projects and collaborators. The programme is open for all European (and from outside Europe) groups performing automatic bioaerosol monitoring. AutoPollen offers technological and organizational support, community-developed bioaerosol monitoring solutions, and a motivated team of experts advancing the relevant research and applications.
2026
Monitoring of long range transported air pollutants in Norway. Annual Report 2025
This report presents results from the monitoring of atmospheric composition and deposition of air pollution in 2025, and focuses on main components in air and precipitation, particulate and gaseous phase of inorganic constituents, particulate carbonaceous matter, ground level ozone and particulate matter.
NILU
2026
For the first time, we present long-term, ongoing atmospheric measurements of 1,2-dichloroethane (DCE, CH2ClCH2Cl) from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global monitoring networks. DCE is an industrially produced, very short-lived chlorinated substance (Cl-VSLS) that has the potential to contribute chlorine to the stratosphere and cause ozone depletion. Compared to other Cl-VSLS, DCE is produced in higher volumes for its primary use as a feedstock in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) manufacture. This production has sustained annual mean mole fractions at the Earth's surface of between 5 and 10 ppt during 2017–2023, making it the third most abundant Cl-VSLS after dichloromethane and chloroform. In this study we estimate mean global emissions for 2017–2023 of 453 ± 185 Gg yr−1 using the AGAGE observations, and 525 ± 209 Gg yr−1 using the NOAA observations. We also use AGAGE measurements to estimate regional emissions for northwest Europe (2.06 [1.31, 2.65] Gg yr−1) and California (0.23 [0, 0.37] Gg yr−1), two domains with sufficient observational coverage to enable this approach. Our global emissions estimates are consistent (within uncertainties) with the only previously published estimate by Hossaini et al. (2024), whereas our regional emissions estimates are at least an order of magnitude smaller than those in that study. This suggests global total emissions may be well constrained, but their spatial distribution remains uncertain.
2026
Exposures in Indoor Air Affecting Health
Indoor air quality (IAQ) is influenced by a wide range of chemical, biological and physical agents that can negatively impact physical, immunological and mental health. Adverse health effects depend on the type and concentration of pollutants, duration of exposure, and individual susceptibility. The availability of data on IAQ is limited, as are standardized approaches for evaluating its health impact. This expert review aims to describe the most important indoor air determinants affecting health, and present the IDEAL cluster, which comprises seven EU‐funded scientific projects on the topic of IAQ and human health. Across the IDEAL projects, knowledge is generated on exposure to a wide range of indoor air pollutants, including well‐known hazards and more explorative chemical and microbiological determinants. The projects will also contribute to the implementation of low‐cost and/or real‐time sensors on IAQ, as well as advanced chemical and microbiological analyses, and evaluate various interventions to improve IAQ. Several of them focus on particularly vulnerable groups. Raising public awareness and implementing measures to reduce pollutant levels are essential for safeguarding health, particularly in urban areas with elevated pollution levels.
2026
Suspect screening helps detect chemicals in environmental samples without predefined target lists which can facilitate isolation of a larger number of substances. This study shows however that no single extraction method or analytical platform (LC-HRMS or GC-HRMS) can capture all relevant pollutants—at least half are missed. The technique works best for chemically similar families, where optimized methods can target specific classes or broader families of similar substances (e.g. PFAS). Effective grouping of similar substances is therefore essential. A broad coverage of substances can however be achieved if multiple sample extractions are performed and each extract is analysed on both LC- and GC-HRMS. Strategies where comparisons can be made over time or across locations will also help to isolate pollutant-related signals from the background. Such considerations must be integrated into programme design and budgeting for retrospective analysis. This will maximize likelihood of detection for the largest diversity of substances.
Norwegian Environment Agency, M-3038|2025
NILU
2026
2026
Franzefoss Husøya Kristiansund. Målinger av ammoniakk NH3 og flyktige organiske forbindelser VOC
NILU
2026
Global Atmospheric Microplastics Emissions Estimated Using Constrained Bayesian Inverse Modeling
We present an analysis of global atmospheric microplastics (MPs) concentration and deposition measurements using constrained Bayesian inverse modeling to estimate global MPs emissions. The proposed Bayesian framework explicitly accounts for unknown ratios between size fractions inherent to MPs measurements and incorporates prior emission information to stabilize the inversion. The coupling between observations and unknown emissions is established using the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART version 11 operated in backward mode for each measurement. Model parameters are inferred using a variational Bayes approach, resulting in an iterative estimation scheme that updates both model parameters and the effective spatial structure of the computational domain. This methodology reduces the need for manual intervention during the inversion process and limits potential bias in the results. The resulting global MPs emission estimates are evaluated against previously published ones. Acknowledgment:This research has been supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. GA24-10400S). N.E. was funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR) project MAGIC (No.: 334086). FLEXPART model simulations are cross-atmospheric research infrastructure services provided by ATMO-ACCESS (EU grant agreement No 101008004). The computations were performed on resources provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway.
2026
Transboundary pollution by heavy metals and POPs
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East (MSC-E)
2026
2026