Fant 10000 publikasjoner. Viser side 297 av 400:
In this study we produce two urban development scenarios estimating potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning building construction, and we simulate their influence on air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort. We select two heat waves representative for present and future conditions of the mid 21st century and simulations are run with the Town Energy Balance Model (TEB) coupled online and offline to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K. The daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2–4 K. Changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort locally where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the central districts. A combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature achieved by changes in urban parameters of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaptation measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K. Therefore, measures to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures. This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.
2019
Non-target screening (NTS) including suspect screening with high resolution mass spectrometry has already shown its feasibility in detecting and identifying emerging contaminants, which subsequently triggered exposure mitigating measures. NTS has a large potential for tasks such as effective evaluation of regulations for safe marketing of substances and products, prioritization of substances for monitoring programmes and assessment of environmental quality. To achieve this, a further development of NTS methodology is required, including: (i) harmonized protocols and quality requirements, (ii) infrastructures for efficient data management, data evaluation and data sharing and (iii) sufficient resources and appropriately trained personnel in the research and regulatory communities in Europe. Recommendations for achieving these three requirements are outlined in the following discussion paper. In particular, in order to facilitate compound identification it is recommended that the relevant information for interpretation of mass spectra, as well as about the compounds usage and production tonnages, should be made accessible to the scientific community (via open-access databases). For many purposes, NTS should be implemented in combination with effect-based methods to focus on toxic chemicals.
2019
<i>Background</i> - Concerns have been raised that extensive use of personal care products that contain endocrine disrupting compounds increase the risk of hormone sensitive cancers.<p> <p><i>Objective</i> - To assess the effect of skincare product use on the risk of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer, estrogen receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) breast cancer and cancer of the endometrium.<p> <p><i>Methods</i> - We used data from 106,978 participants in the population-based Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort. Participants were categorized into non-, light, moderate, frequent and heavy users of skincare products based on self-reported use of hand and facial cream and body lotion. Cancer incidence information from the Cancer Registry of Norway was linked to individual data through the unique identity number of Norwegian citizens. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess the effect of skincare product use on the risk of cancer of the breast and endometrium. We used multiple imputation by chained equations to evaluate the effect of missing data on observed associations.<p> <p><i>Results</i> - We found no associations between use of skincare products and incidence of premenopausal breast cancer (frequent/heavy versus non−/light use: hazard ratio [HR] =1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92–1.32), postmenopausal breast cancer (heavy versus light use: HR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.65–1.18, frequent versus light use: HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.07) or endometrial cancer (frequent/heavy versus non−/light use: HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.79–1.20). Use of skincare products did not increase the risk of ER+ or ER- breast cancer and there was no difference in effect across ER status (0.58 ≤ <sub>pheterogeneity</sub> ≤ 0.99). The magnitude and direction of the effect estimates based on complete case analyses and multiple imputation were similar.<p> <p><i>Conclusion</i> Heavy use of skincare products, i.e. creaming the body up to two times per day during mid-life, did not increase the risk of cancer of the breast or endometrium.
2019
2019
In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990–2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2−4
), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990–2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000–2010 (referred to as P2).
The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990–2000, with a 64 %–76 % mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82 % mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34 %–54 %, which was also in line with that observed (47 %). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25 % and between 19 % and 23 % (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12 % and between 22 % and 26 % (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively.
Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO2−4
concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42 %–54 % mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57 % mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO2−4
concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry.
An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28 %–39 % and 29 % mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO−3
) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO−3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of “free ammonia”. By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO−3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data...
2019
In the Barents Sea, pelagic and coastal polar bears are facing various ecological challenges that may explain the difference in their pollutant levels. We measured polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers in fat, and perfluoroalkyl substances in plasma in pelagic and coastal adult female polar bears with similar body condition. We studied polar bear feeding habits with bulk stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen. Nitrogen isotopes of amino acids were used to investigate their trophic position. We studied energy expenditure by estimating field metabolic rate using telemetry data. Annual home range size was determined, and spatial gradients in pollutants were explored using latitude and longitude centroid positions of polar bears. Pollutant levels were measured in harp seals from the Greenland Sea and White Sea–Barents Sea as a proxy for a West–East gradient of pollutants in polar bear prey. We showed that pelagic bears had higher pollutant loads than coastal bears because (1) they feed on a higher proportion of marine and higher trophic level prey, (2) they have higher energy requirements and higher prey consumption, (3) they forage in the marginal ice zones, and (4) they feed on prey located closer to pollutant emission sources/transport pathways.
2019
2019
A number of studies have shown that assimilation of satellite derived soil moisture using the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) can improve soil moisture estimates, particularly for the surface zone. However, the EnKF is computationally expensive since an ensemble of model integrations have to be propagated forward in time. Here, assimilating satellite soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, we compare the EnKF with the computationally cheaper ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) method over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The background error–covariance in the EnOI is sampled in two ways: (i) by using the stochastic spread from an ensemble open-loop run, and (ii) sampling from the model spinup climatology. Our results indicate that the EnKF is only marginally superior to one version of the EnOI. Furthermore, the assimilation of SMAP data using the EnKF and EnOI is found to improve the surface zone correlation with in situ observations at a 95% significance level. The EnKF assimilation of SMAP data is also found to improve root-zone correlation with independent in situ data at the same significance level; however this improvement is dependent on which in situ network we are validating against. We evaluate how the quality of the atmospheric forcing affects the analysis results by prescribing the land surface data assimilation system with either observation corrected or model derived precipitation. Surface zone correlation skill increases for the analysis using both the corrected and model derived precipitation, but only the latter shows an improvement at the 95% significance level. The study also suggests that assimilation of satellite derived surface soil moisture using the EnOI can correct random errors in the atmospheric forcing and give an analysed surface soil moisture close to that of an open-loop run using observation derived precipitation. Importantly, this shows that estimates of soil moisture could be improved using a combination of assimilating SMAP using the computationally cheap EnOI while using model derived precipitation as forcing. Finally, we assimilate three different Level-2 satellite derived soil moisture products from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI), SMAP and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) using the EnOI, and then compare the relative performance of the three resulting analyses against in situ soil moisture observations. In this comparison, we find that all three analyses offer improvements over an open-loop run when comparing to in situ observations. The assimilation of SMAP data is found to perform marginally better than the assimilation of SMOS data, while assimilation of the ESA CCI data shows the smallest improvement of the three analysis products.
2019
Performance assessment of a low-cost PM2.5 Sensor for a near four-month period in Oslo, Norway
The very low-cost Nova particulate matter (PM) sensor SDS011 has recently drawn attention for its use for measuring PM mass concentration, which is frequently used as an indicator of air quality. However, this sensor has not been thoroughly evaluated in real-world conditions and its data quality is not well documented. In this study, three SDS011 sensors were evaluated by co-locating them at an official, air quality monitoring station equipped with reference-equivalent instrumentation in Oslo, Norway. The sensors’ measurement results for PM2.5 were compared with data generated from the air quality monitoring station over almost a four-month period. Five performance aspects of the sensors were examined: operational data coverage, linearity of response and accuracy, inter-sensor variability, dependence on relative humidity (RH) and temperature (T), and potential improvement of sensor accuracy, by data calibration using a machine-learning method. The results of the study are: (i) the three sensors provide quite similar results, with inter-sensor correlations exhibiting R values higher than 0.97; (ii) all three sensors demonstrate quite high linearity against officially measured concentrations of PM2.5, with R2 values ranging from 0.55 to 0.71; (iii) high RH (over 80%) negatively affected the sensor response; (iv) data calibration using only the RH and T recorded directly at the three sensors increased the R2 value from 0.71 to 0.80, 068 to 0.79, and 0.55 to 0.76. The results demonstrate the general feasibility of using these low cost SDS011 sensors for indicative PM2.5 monitoring under certain environmental conditions. Within these constraints, they further indicate that there is potential for deploying large networks of such devices, due to the sensors’ relative accuracy, size and cost. This opens up a wide variety of applications, such as high-resolution air quality mapping and personalized air quality information services. However, it should be noted that the sensors exhibit often very high relative errors for hourly values and that there is a high potential of abusing these types of sensors if they are applied outside the manufacturer-provided specifications particularly regarding relative humidity. Furthermore, our analysis covers only a relatively short time period and it is desirable to carry out longer-term studies covering a wider range of meteorological conditions
2019
Simulation of volcanic ash ingestion into a large aero engine: particle–fan interactions
Volcanic ash (VA) clouds in flight corridors present a significant threat to aircraft operations
as VA particles can cause damage to gas turbine engine components that lead to a
reduction of engine performance and compromise flight safety. In the last decade,
research has mainly focused on processes such as erosion of compressor blades and
static components caused by impinging ash particles as well as clogging and/or corrosion
effects of soft or molten ash particles on hot section turbine airfoils and components.
However, there is a lack of information on how the fan separates ingested VA particles
from the core stream flow into the bypass flow and therefore influences the mass concentration
inside the engine core section, which is most vulnerable and critical for safety. In
this numerical simulation study, we investigated the VA particle–fan interactions and
resulting reductions in particle mass concentrations entering the engine core section as a
function of particle size, fan rotation rate, and for two different flight altitudes. For this,
we used a high-bypass gas-turbine engine design, with representative intake, fan, spinner,
and splitter geometries for numerical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations
including a Lagrangian particle-tracking algorithm. Our results reveal that
particle–fan interactions redirect particles from the core stream flow into the bypass
stream tube, which leads to a significant particle mass concentration reduction inside the
engine core section. The results also show that the particle–fan interactions increase
with increasing fan rotation rates and VA particle size. Depending on ingested VA size
distributions, the particle mass inside the engine core flow can be up to 30% reduced
compared to the incoming particle mass flow. The presented results enable future calculations
of effective core flow exposure or dosages based on simulated or observed atmospheric
VA particle size distribution, which is required to quantify engine failure
mechanisms after exposure to VA. As an example, we applied our methodology to a
recent aircraft encounter during the Mt. Kelud 2014 eruption. Based on ambient VA concentrations
simulated with an atmospheric particle dispersion model (FLEXPART), we
calculated the effective particle mass concentration inside the core stream flow along the
actual flight track and compared it with the whole engine exposure.
2019
2019
The wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe for the period 1990–2010 was estimated by six atmospheric chemistry transport models (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH and MINNI) within the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends model intercomparison. The simulated wet deposition and its trends for two 11-year periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) were evaluated using data from observations from the EMEP European monitoring network. For annual wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen (WNOx), model bias was within 30 % of the average of the observations for most models. There was a tendency for most models to underestimate annual wet deposition of reduced nitrogen (WNHx), although the model bias was within 40 % of the average of the observations. Model bias for WNHx was inversely correlated with model bias for atmospheric concentrations of NH3+NH+4
, suggesting that an underestimation of wet deposition partially contributed to an overestimation of atmospheric concentrations. Model bias was also within about 40 % of the average of the observations for the annual wet deposition of sulfur (WSOx) for most models.
Decreasing trends in WNOx were observed at most sites for both 11-year periods, with larger trends, on average, for the second period. The models also estimated predominantly decreasing trends at the monitoring sites and all but one of the models estimated larger trends, on average, for the second period. Decreasing trends were also observed at most sites for WNHx, although larger trends, on average, were observed for the first period. This pattern was not reproduced by the models, which estimated smaller decreasing trends, on average, than those observed or even small increasing trends. The largest observed trends were for WSOx, with decreasing trends at more than 80 % of the sites. On average, the observed trends were larger for the first period. All models were able to reproduce this pattern, although some models underestimated the trends (by up to a factor of 4) and others overestimated them (by up to 40 %), on average. These biases in modelled trends were directly related to the tendency of the models to under- or overestimate annual wet deposition and were smaller for the relative trends (expressed as % yr−1 relative to the deposition at the start of the period).
The fact that model biases were fairly constant throughout the time series makes it possible to improve the predictions of wet deposition for future scenarios by adjusting the model estimates using a bias correction calculated from past observations. An analysis of the contributions of various factors to the modelled trends suggests that the predominantly decreasing trends in wet deposition are mostly due to reductions in emissions of the precursors NOx, NH3 and SOx. However, changes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation) and other (non-linear) interactions partially offset the decreasing trends due to emission reductions during the first period but not the second. This suggests that the emission reduction measures had a relatively larger effect on wet deposition during the second period, at least for the sites with observations.
2019
2019
This study investigated relationships between organohalogen compound (OHC) exposure, feeding habits, and pathogen exposure in a recovering population of Atlantic walruses (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway. Various samples were collected from 39 free-living, apparently healthy, adult male walruses immobilised at three sampling locations during the summers of 2014 and 2015. Concentrations of lipophilic compounds (polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides and polybrominated diphenyl ethers) were analysed in blubber samples, and concentrations of perfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) were determined in plasma samples. Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen were measured in seven tissue types and surveys for three infectious pathogens were conducted. Despite an overall decline in lipophilic compound concentrations since this population was last studied (2006), the contaminant pattern was similar, including extremely large inter-individual variation. Stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen showed that the variation in OHC concentrations could not be explained by some walruses consuming higher trophic level diets, since all animals were found to feed at a similar trophic level. Antibodies against the bacteria Brucella spp. and the parasite Toxoplasma gondii were detected in 26% and 15% of the walruses, respectively. Given the absence of seal-predation, T. gondii exposure likely took place via the consumption of contaminated bivalves. The source of exposure to Brucella spp. in walruses is still unknown. Parapoxvirus DNA was detected in a single individual, representing the first documented evidence of parapoxvirus in wild walruses. Antibody prevalence was not related to contaminant exposure. Despite this, dynamic relationships between diet composition, contaminant bioaccumulation and pathogen exposure warrant continuing attention given the likelihood of climate change induced habitat and food web changes, and consequently OHC exposure, for Svalbard walruses in the coming decades.
2019
Contaminants in Atlantic walruses Part 2: Relationships with endocrine and immune systems
Marine mammals in the Barents Sea region have among the highest levels of contaminants recorded in the Arctic and the Atlantic walrus (<i>Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus</i>) is one of the most contaminated species within this region. We therefore investigated the relationships bewteen blubber concentrations of lipophilic persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and plasma concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and markers of endocrine and immune functions in adult male Atlantic walruses (n = 38) from Svalbard, Norway. To do so, we assessed plasma concentrations of five forms of thyroid hormones and transcript levels of genes related to the endocrine and immune systems as endpoints; transcript levels of seven genes in blubber and 23 genes in blood cells were studied. Results indicated that plasma total thyroxine (TT4) concentrations decreased with increasing blubber concentrations of lipophilic POPs. Blood cell transcript levels of genes involved in the function of T and B cells (FC like receptors 2 and 5, cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated protein 4 and protein tyrosine phosphatase non-receptor type 22) were increased with plasma PFAS concentrations. These results suggest that changes in thyroid and immune systems in adult male walruses are linked to current levels of contaminant exposure.
2019
Supporting the improvement of air quality management practices: The “FAIRMODE pilot” activity
This paper presents the first outcomes of the “FAIRMODE pilot” activity, aiming at improving the way in which air quality models are used in the frame of the European “Air Quality Directive”. Member States may use modelling, combined with measurements, to “assess” current levels of air quality and estimate future air quality under different scenarios. In case of current and potential exceedances of the Directive limit values, it is also requested that they “plan” and implement emission reductions measures to avoid future exceedances. In both “assessment” and “planning”, air quality models can and should be used; but to do so, the used modelling chain has to be fit-for-purpose and properly checked and verified. FAIRMODE has developed in the recent years a suite of methodologies and tools to check if emission inventories, model performance, source apportionment techniques and planning activities are fit-for-purpose. Within the “FAIRMODE pilot”, these tools are used and tested by regional/local authorities, with the two-fold objective of improving management practices at regional/local scale, and providing valuable feedback to the FAIRMODE community. Results and lessons learnt from this activity are presented in this paper, as a showcase that can potentially benefit other authorities in charge of air quality assessment and planning.
2019
Public Health Institute of Belgrade
2019
Vinca Institute of Nuclear Sciences
2019
2019
2019
Anodes fabricated from a single source coke were used for investigations of effect of porosity and surface roughness on the electrochemical performance in laboratory scale cells. In order to fabricate anodes differing in porosity, the production parameters were varied with two levels of mixing temperatures (150 and 210 °C) and three baking levels (underbaking at 1150°E, normal baking at 1260°E, overbaking at 1350°E). °E denotes the equivalent temperature which is a function of both the temperature the anode sees, and the time kept at this temperature. The low mixing anodes were more inhomogeneous with respect to both micro- and macroporosity, which can be attributed to the wetting between pitch and coke. After electrolysis, the real surface area of the low mixing anodes was about 13% higher than the high mixing anodes. Also, the low mixing electrodes had slightly larger electrochemically active surface area after electrolysis compared to the high mixing electrodes, as evidenced by higher capacitance measured at low current densities. Still, the mixing and equivalent baking temperatures did not affect the electrochemical overpotential at 1 A/cm2 to any significant extent. This could be understood from the 3D computed tomography images, which also showed that the electrolyte does not generally penetrate into the pores on the surface, penetration will depend on the size and shape of the pore.
2019