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The Eurodelta-Trends (EDT) multi-model experiment, aimed at assessing the efficiency of emission mitigation measures in improving air quality in Europe during 1990–2010, was designed to answer a series of questions regarding European pollution trends; i.e. were there significant trends detected by observations? Do the models manage to reproduce observed trends? How close is the agreement between the models and how large are the deviations from observations? In this paper, we address these issues with respect to particulate matter (PM) pollution. An in-depth trend analysis has been performed for PM10 and PM2.5 for the period of 2000–2010, based on results from six chemical transport models and observational data from the EMEP (Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) monitoring network. Given harmonization of set-up and main input data, the differences in model results should mainly result from differences in the process formulations within the models themselves, and the spread in the model-simulated trends could be regarded as an indicator for modelling uncertainty.
The model ensemble simulations indicate overall decreasing trends in PM10 and PM2.5 from 2000 to 2010, with the total reductions of annual mean concentrations by between 2 and 5 (7 for PM10) µg m−3 (or between 10 % and 30 %) across most of Europe (by 0.5–2 µg m−3 in Fennoscandia, the north-west of Russia and eastern Europe) during the studied period. Compared to PM2.5, relative PM10 trends are weaker due to large inter-annual variability of natural coarse PM within the former. The changes in the concentrations of PM individual components are in general consistent with emission reductions. There is reasonable agreement in PM trends estimated by the individual models, with the inter-model variability below 30 %–40 % over most of Europe, increasing to 50 %–60 % in the northern and eastern parts of the EDT domain.
Averaged over measurement sites (26 for PM10 and 13 for PM2.5), the mean ensemble-simulated trends are −0.24 and −0.22 µg m−3 yr−1 for PM10 and PM2.5, which are somewhat weaker than the observed trends of −0.35 and −0.40 µg m−3 yr−1 respectively, partly due to model underestimation of PM concentrations. The correspondence is better in relative PM10 and PM2.5 trends, which are −1.7 % yr−1 and −2.0 % yr−1 from the model ensemble and −2.1 % yr−1 and −2.9 % yr−1 from the observations respectively. The observations identify significant trends (at the 95 % confidence level) for PM10 at 56 % of the sites and for PM2.5 at 36 % of the sites, which is somewhat less that the fractions of significant modelled trends. Further, we find somewhat smaller spatial variability of modelled PM trends with respect to the observed ones across Europe and also within individual countries.
The strongest decreasing PM trends and the largest number of sites with significant trends are found for the summer season, according to both the model ensemble and observations. The winter PM trends are very weak and mostly insignificant. Important reasons for that are the very modest reductions and even increases in the emissions of primary PM from residential heating in winter. It should be kept in mind that all findings regarding modelled versus observed PM trends are limited to the regions where the sites are located.
The analysis reveals considerable variability of the role of the individual aerosols in PM10 trends across European countries. The multi-model simulations, supported by available observations, point to decreases in concentrations playing an overall dominant role. Also, we see...
2022
Målinger av SO2 i omgivelsene til Elkem Carbon og REC Solar. Januar 2021 – desember 2021.
På oppdrag fra Elkem Carbon AS har NILU utført målinger av SO2 i omgivelsene til Elkem Carbon og REC Solar i Vågsbygd (Kristiansand kommune). Elkem Carbon har i sin tillatelse fra Miljødirektoratet krav om å gjennomføre kontinuerlig måling av SO2 i omgivelsesluft. Målingene ble utført med SO2-monitor i boligområdet på Fiskåtangen (Konsul Wilds vei). I tillegg har Elkem Carbon AS valgt å måle med passive SO2-prøvetakere ved 3 steder rundt bedriftene. Rapporten dekker målinger i perioden 1. januar – 31. desember 2021. Norske grenseverdier for luftkvalitet (SO2) ble overholdt ved Konsul Wilds vei for alle midlingsperioder krevet i forurensningsforskriften (årsmiddel, vintermiddel, døgnmiddel og timemiddel). De mest belastede stedene i måleperioden var Konsul Wilds vei nordøst og Fiskåveien rett sør for bedriftene. To døgnmidler var over 125 µg/m3 (grenseverdi, 3 tillatt), 16 døgnmidler var over øvre vurderingsterskel (75 µg/m3) og 33 døgnmidler var over nedre vurderingsterskel (50 µg/m3).
NILU
2022
2022
Modeling the Dynamic Behavior of Radiocesium in Grazing Reindeer
Radiocesium contamination in Norwegian reindeer and the factors influencing contamination levels have been studied for more than 50 years, providing significant amounts of data. Monitoring contamination in reindeer is of utmost importance for reindeer husbandry and herders in Norway and will need to be studied for many years because of the persistent contamination levels due to the 1986 Chernobyl fallout. This paper presents a novel dynamic model that takes advantage of the large data sets that have been collected for reindeer monitoring to estimate 137Cs in reindeer meat at any given time. The model has been validated using detailed 137Cs data from one of the herds most affected by the fallout. The model basis includes detailed 137Cs soil data from aerial surveys, GPS-based knowledge of reindeer migration, and local soil-to-vegetation 137Cs transfer information. The validation exercise shows that the model satisfactorily predicts both short- and long-term changes in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer meat and suggests that the model will be a useful tool in estimating seasonal changes and evaluating possible remedial actions in case of a future fallout event.
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2022
Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.
2022
While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios.
In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs.
Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.
2022
Three-dimensional (3D) cloud structures may impact atmospheric trace gas products from ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) sounders. We used synthetic and observational data to identify and quantify possible cloud-related bias in NO2 tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD). The synthetic data were based on high-resolution large eddy simulations which were input to a 3D radiative transfer model. The simulated visible spectra for low-earth-orbiting and geostationary geometries were analysed with standard retrieval methods and cloud correction schemes that are employed in operational NO2 satellite products. For the observational data, the NO2 products from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) were used, while the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) provided high-spatial-resolution cloud and radiance data. NO2 profile shape, cloud shadow fraction, cloud top height, cloud optical depth, and solar zenith and viewing angles were identified as the metrics being the most important in identifying 3D cloud impacts on NO2 TVCD retrievals. For a solar zenith angle less than about 40∘ the synthetic data show that the NO2 TVCD bias is typically below 10 %, while for larger solar zenith angles the NO2 TVCD is low-biased by tens of percent. The horizontal variability of NO2 and differences in TROPOMI and VIIRS overpass times make it challenging to identify a similar bias in the observational data. However, for optically thick clouds above 3000 m, a low bias appears to be present in the observational data.
2022
Do cytotoxicity and cell death cause false positive results in the in vitro comet assay?
The comet assay is used to measure DNA damage induced by chemical and physical agents. High concentrations of test agents may cause cytotoxicity or cell death, which may give rise to false positive results in the comet assay. Systematic studies on genotoxins and cytotoxins (i.e. non-genotoxic poisons) have attempted to establish a threshold of cytotoxicity or cell death by which DNA damage results measured by the comet assay could be regarded as a false positive result. Thresholds of cytotoxicity/cell death range from 20% to 50% in various publications. Curiously, a survey of the latest literature on comet assay results from cell culture studies suggests that one-third of publications did not assess cytotoxicity or cell death. We recommend that it should be mandatory to include results from at least one type of assay on cytotoxicity, cell death or cell proliferation in publications on comet assay results. A combination of cytotoxicity (or cell death) and proliferation (or colony forming efficiency assay) is preferable in actively proliferating cells because it covers more mechanisms of action. Applying a general threshold of cytotoxicity/cell death to all types of agents may not be applicable; however, 25% compared to the concurrent negative control seems to be a good starting value to avoid false positive comet assay results. Further research is needed to establish a threshold value to distinguish between true and potentially false positive genotoxic effects detected by the comet assay.
2022
2022
The alamar blue assay in the context of safety testing of nanomaterials
The Alamar Blue (AB) assay is widely used to investigate cytotoxicity, cell proliferation and cellular metabolic activity within different fields of toxicology. The use of the assay with nanomaterials (NMs) entails specific aspects including the potential interference of NMs with the test. The procedure of the AB assay applied for testing NMs is described in detail and step-by-step, from NM preparation, cell exposure, inclusion of interference controls, to the analysis and interpretation of the results. Provided that the proper procedure is followed, and relevant controls are included, the AB assay is a reliable and high throughput test to evaluate the cytotoxicity/proliferation/metabolic response of cells exposed to NMs.
2022
2022
Environmental contaminants in freshwater food webs, 2021
This report presents monitoring data from freshwater food webs and abiotic samples from Lake Mjøsa and Femunden within the
Milfersk programme. Studies and monitoring of legacy and emerging contaminants have been carried out through this programme
for several years, focusing on the pelagic food web. This is the first report in the monitoring program focusing on a benthic food
chain (Chironomids, ruffe, roach and perch) in addition to inputs to Lake Mjøsa by analysis of lake sediments, surface waters,
stormwater, effluent and sludge from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The analytical programme includes the determination
of a total of ̴ 260 single components.
Norsk institutt for vannforskning (NIVA)
2022
2022
Electrification of residential heating and investment in building energy efficiency are central pillars of many national strategies to reduce carbon emissions from the built environment sector. Ireland has a strong dependence on oil use for central heating and a substantial share of homes still using solid fuels. The current national strategy calls for the retrofitting of 400,000 home heating systems with heat pumps by 2030, principally replacing oil fired heating systems. Displacing natural gas, oil and solid fuel boilers with heat pumps will have a favourable impact on climate outcomes. However, the impact on air pollutant outcomes is far more favourable when solid fuels are replaced, and the positive impact on ambient air quality is much enhanced where concentrated clusters of solid-fuel use are targeted. This research spatially analyses emissions and air pollutant concentration outcomes for both targeted and non-targeted deployments of heat pumps and shows that a focused deployment of just 3% of the national heat pump target on solid-fuel homes could offer similar progress on climate goals but with a substantial impact in terms of reducing air pollution hot spots. For the Irish residential heating season (October–March), the targeted solid fuel scenario delivers average PM2.5 concentration decreases of 20–34%. This paper shows that these targeted communities are often in areas of relative deprivation, and as such, direct support for fabric retrofitting and heat pump technology installation offers the potential to simultaneously advance climate, air and just transition policy ambitions.
2022
Decades of atmospheric and oceanic long-range transport from lower latitudes have resulted in deposition and storage of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic regions. With increased temperatures, melting glaciers and thawing permafrost may serve as a secondary source of these stored POPs to freshwater and marine ecosystems. Here, we present concentrations and composition of legacy POPs in glacier- and permafrost-influenced rivers and coastal waters in the high Arctic Svalbard fjord Kongsfjorden. Targeted contaminants include polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and chlordane pesticides. Dissolved (defined as fraction filtered through 0.7 μm GF/F filter) and particulate samples were collected from rivers and near-shore fjord stations along a gradient from the heavily glaciated inner fjord to the tundra-dominated catchments at the outer fjord. There were no differences in contaminant concentration or pattern between glacier and tundra-dominated catchments, and the general contaminant pattern reflected snow melt with some evidence of pesticides released with glacial meltwater. Rivers were a small source of chlordane pesticides, DDTs and particulate HCB to the marine system and the particle-rich glacial meltwater contained higher concentrations of particle associated contaminants compared to the fjord. This study provides rare insight into the role of small Arctic rivers in transporting legacy contaminants from thawing catchments to coastal areas. Results indicate that the spring thaw is a source of contaminants to Kongsfjorden, and that expected increases in runoff on Svalbard and elsewhere in the Arctic could have implications for the contamination of Arctic coastal food-webs.
2022
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2022
The way Norway is spearheading electrification in the transport sector is of global interest. In this study, we used the Norwegian Emissions from Road Vehicle Exhaust (NERVE) model, a bottom-up high-resolution traffic emission model, to calculate all emissions in Norway (2009–2020) and evaluate potential co-benefit and trade-offs of policies to target climate change mitigation, air quality and socioeconomic factors. Results for municipal data with regard to traffic growth, road network influences, vehicle composition, emissions and energy consumption are presented. Light vehicle CO2 emissions per kilometer have been reduced by 22% since 2009, mainly driven by an increasing bio-fuel mixing and battery electric vehicles (BEV) share. BEVs are mostly located in and around the main cities, areas with young vehicle fleets, and strong local incentives. Beneficiaries of BEVs incentives have been a subset of the population with strong economic indicators. The incentivized growth in the share of diesel-fuelled passenger vehicles has been turned, and together with Euro6 emission standards, light vehicle NOx emissions have been halved since peaking in 2014. BEVs represent an investment in emission reductions in years to come, and current sales set Norway up for an accelerated decline in all exhaust emissions despite the continual growth in traffic.
2022