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Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their temporal variability as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK) and updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates, and it extends the previous period of 1990–2017 to 2019. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported by parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. Uncertainties in NGHGIs, as reported to the UNFCCC by the EU and its member states, are also included in the synthesis. Variations in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, the activities included are a key source of bias between estimates, e.g., anthropogenic and natural fluxes, which in atmospheric inversions are sensitive to the prior geospatial distribution of emissions. ...
2023
Rising carbon inequality and its driving factors from 2005 to 2015
Carbon inequality is the gap in carbon footprints between the rich and the poor, reflecting an uneven distribution of wealth and mitigation responsibility. Whilst much is known about the level of inequality surrounding responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, little is known about the evolution in carbon inequality and how the carbon footprints of socio-economic groups have developed over time. Inequality can be reduced either by improving the living standards of the poor or by reducing the overconsumption of the rich, but the choice has very different implications for climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the carbon footprints of income quintile groups for major 43 economies from 2005 to 2015. We find that most developed economies had declining carbon footprints but expanding carbon inequality, whereas most developing economies had rising footprints but divergent trends in carbon inequality. The top income group in developing economies grew fastest, with its carbon footprint surpassing the top group in developed economies in 2014. Developments are driven by a reduction in GHG intensity in all regions, which is partly offset by income growth in developed countries but more than offset by the rapid growth in selected emerging economies. The top income group in developed economies has achieved the least progress in climate change mitigation, in terms of decline rate, showing resistance of the rich. It shows mitigation efforts could raise carbon inequality. We highlight the necessity of raising the living standard of the poor and consistent mitigation effort is the core of achieving two targets.
Elsevier
2023
Estimating methane emissions in the Arctic nations using surface observations from 2008 to 2019
The Arctic is a critical region in terms of global warming. Environmental changes are already progressing steadily in high northern latitudes, whereby, among other effects, a high potential for enhanced methane (CH4) emissions is induced. With CH4 being a potent greenhouse gas, additional emissions from Arctic regions may intensify global warming in the future through positive feedback. Various natural and anthropogenic sources are currently contributing to the Arctic's CH4 budget; however, the quantification of those emissions remains challenging. Assessing the amount of CH4 emissions in the Arctic and their contribution to the global budget still remains challenging. On the one hand, this is due to the difficulties in carrying out accurate measurements in such remote areas. Besides, large variations in the spatial distribution of methane sources and a poor understanding of the effects of ongoing changes in carbon decomposition, vegetation and hydrology also complicate the assessment. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce uncertainties in current bottom-up estimates of CH4 emissions as well as soil oxidation by implementing an inverse modelling approach in order to better quantify CH4 sources and sinks for the most recent years (2008 to 2019). More precisely, the objective is to detect occurring trends in the CH4 emissions and potential changes in seasonal emission patterns. The implementation of the inversion included footprint simulations obtained with the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model), various emission estimates from inventories and land surface models, and data on atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 41 surface observation sites in the Arctic nations. The results of the inversion showed that the majority of the CH4 sources currently present in high northern latitudes are poorly constrained by the existing observation network. Therefore, conclusions on trends and changes in the seasonal cycle could not be obtained for the corresponding CH4 sectors. Only CH4 fluxes from wetlands are adequately constrained, predominantly in North America. Within the period under study, wetland emissions show a slight negative trend in North America and a slight positive trend in East Eurasia. Overall, the estimated CH4 emissions are lower compared to the bottom-up estimates but higher than similar results from global inversions.
2023
Individual high-Alpine ice cores have been proven to contain a well-preserved history of past anthropogenic air pollution in western Europe. The question of how representative one ice core is with respect to the reconstruction of atmospheric composition in the source region has not been addressed so far. Here, we present the first study systematically comparing longer-term ice-core records (1750–2015 CE) of various anthropogenic compounds, such as major inorganic aerosol constituents (, , ), black carbon (BC), and trace species (Cd, F−, Pb). Depending on the data availability for the different air pollutants, up to five ice cores from four high-Alpine sites located in the European Alps analysed by different laboratories were considered. Whereas absolute concentration levels can partly differ depending on the prevailing seasonal distribution of accumulated precipitation, all seven investigated anthropogenic compounds are in excellent agreement between the various sites for their respective, species-dependent longer-term concentration trends. This is related to common source regions of air pollution impacting the four sites less than 100 km away including western European countries surrounding the Alps. For individual compounds, the Alpine ice-core composites developed in this study allowed us to precisely time the onset of pollution caused by industrialization in western Europe. Extensive emissions from coal combustion and agriculture lead to an exceeding of pre-industrial (1750–1850) concentration levels already at the end of the 19th century for BC, Pb, (non-dust, non-sea salt ), and , respectively. However, Cd, F−, and concentrations started surpassing pre-industrial values only in the 20th century, predominantly due to pollution from zinc and aluminium smelters and traffic. The observed maxima of BC, Cd, F−, Pb, and concentrations in the 20th century and a significant decline afterwards clearly reveal the efficiency of air pollution control measures such as the desulfurization of coal, the introduction of filters and scrubbers in power plants and metal smelters, and the ban of leaded gasoline improving the air quality in western Europe. In contrast, and concentration records show levels in the beginning of the 21th century which are unprecedented in the context of the past 250 years, indicating that the introduced abatement measures to reduce these pollutants were insufficient to have a major effect at high altitudes in western Europe. Only four ice-core composite records (BC, F−, Pb, ) of the seven investigated pollutants correspond well with modelled trends, suggesting inaccuracies of the emission estimates or an incomplete representation of chemical reaction mechanisms in the models for the other pollutants. Our results demonstrate that individual ice-core records from different sites in the European Alps generally provide a spatially representative signal of anthropogenic air pollution trends in western European countries.
European Geosciences Union (EGU)
2023
The tropospheric NO2 column from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI (2018–2020) and Aura/OMI (2010–2020) over Poland, notably for 7 major Polish cities, was used to assess the annual variability and the COVID-19 lockdown effect. On a national scale, during lockdown (March–June 2020), strong sources of pollution were found in Katowice and Warszawa, as well as at the power plant in Bełchatów. A gradual drop in OMI NO2 values between March and June was found for all cities and the entire domain of Poland, this being a part of the annual NO2 cycle derived for every year from 2010 to 2020. In fact, the gradual drop of NO2 in the lockdown year was within the typical monthly and annual variability. In March 2020, Kraków showed the highest NO2 reduction rate. A reduction of NO2 was observed in Gdańsk, Wrocław, and Warszawa during every month of the lock-down period. Several factors, including wind speed and direction, temperature, and increased emission sources, can limit the dispersion and removal of NO2. Although meteorological conditions have a significant impact on the annual cycle of NO2 in Poland, it is important to note that anthropogenic emissions remain the primary driver of NO2 concentrations. Therefore, the study concludes that the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on NO2 pollution was negligible and clarifies the current understanding of the COVID-19 effect over Poland, with an emphasis on hotspots in the major Polish cities and their vicinity. This is consistent with our understanding that the reduction of NO2 pollution is seen in cities due to reduced traffic (domestic, municipal, and airborne).
Frontiers Media S.A.
2023
Few studies report the occurrence of microplastics (MP), including tire wear particles (TWP) in the marine atmosphere, and little data is available regarding their size or sources. Here we present active air sampling devices (low- and high-volume samplers) for the evaluation of composition and MP mass loads in the marine atmosphere. Air was sampled during a research cruise along the Norwegian coast up to Bear Island. Samples were analyzed with pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, generating a mass-based data set for MP in the marine atmosphere. Here we show the ubiquity of MP, even in remote Arctic areas with concentrations up to 37.5 ng m−3. Cluster of polyethylene terephthalate (max. 1.5 ng m−3) were universally present. TWP (max. 35 ng m−3) and cluster of polystyrene, polypropylene, and polyurethane (max. 1.1 ng m−3) were also detected. Atmospheric transport and dispersion models, suggested the introduction of MP into the marine atmosphere equally from sea- and land-based emissions, transforming the ocean from a sink into a source for MP.
Springer Nature
2023
The turbulent future brings a breath of fresh air
Ventilation of health hazardous aerosol pollution within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) – the lowest layer of the atmosphere – is dependent upon turbulent mixing, which again is closely linked to the height of the PBL. Here we show that emissions of both CO2 and absorbing aerosols such as black carbon influence the number of severe air pollution episodes through impacts on turbulence and PBL height. While absorbing aerosols cause increased boundary layer stability and reduced turbulence through atmospheric heating, CO2 has the opposite effect over land through surface warming. In future scenarios with increasing CO2 concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions, we find that around 10% of the world’s population currently living in regions with high pollution levels are likely to experience a particularly strong increase in turbulence and PBL height, and thus a reduction in intense pollution events. Our results highlight how these boundary layer processes provide an added positive impact of black carbon mitigation to human health.
Springer Nature
2023
Leaching of chemicals and DOC from tire particles under simulated marine conditions
Tire wear particles (TWPs) represent one of the major anthropogenic pools of particles ending up in the environment. They contain a large variety of chemicals, a part of which may be released into the environment through leaching, although the influence of sunlight and other environmental factors during this process is still unclear. This laboratory study compares the leaching of organic compounds from TWP in seawater in the dark and under artificial sunlight for 1) cryo-milled tire tread (CMTT), 2) ‘virgin’ crumb rubber (VCR) and 3) crumb rubber immersed in the sea for ≥12 months prior to the experiments (WCR). Leachates were analyzed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and 19 tire-derived chemicals, benzothiazoles and phenylguanidines as well as phenylendiamines by liquid chromatography-high resolution-mass spectrometry. For DOC and most chemicals, the amounts released decreased in the order CMTT > VCR > WCR and increased when leaching occurred under artificial sunlight. sunlight also led to the formation of 23 transformation processes related to 1,3-diphenylguanidine (DPG). In contrast, 4-hydroxydiphenylamine (4-HDPA) and N-(1,3-dimethylbutyl)-N′-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine quinone (6-PPDQ) were found in lower amounts upon sunlight exposure. The 19 quantified chemicals, however, did only account for 6%–55% of the DOC in the leachates; most of the DOC, thus, remained unexplained. This study highlights that the amount of chemicals leached from tire particles depends upon their aging history and may be modulated by environmental conditions.
Frontiers Media S.A.
2023
Ixodes ricinus ticks are Scandinavia's main vector for tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), which infects many people annually. The aims of the present study were (i) to obtain information on the TBEV prevalence in host-seeking I. ricinus collected within the Øresund-Kattegat-Skagerrak (ØKS) region, which lies in southern Norway, southern Sweden and Denmark; (ii) to analyse whether there are potential spatial patterns in the TBEV prevalence; and (iii) to understand the relationship between TBEV prevalence and meteorological factors in southern Scandinavia. Tick nymphs were collected in 2016, in southern Scandinavia, and screened for TBEV, using pools of 10 nymphs, with RT real-time PCR, and positive samples were confirmed with pyrosequencing. Spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis was performed with Global Moran's I and SatScan to test for spatial patterns and potential local clusters of the TBEV pool prevalence at each of the 50 sites. A climatic analysis was made to correlate parameters such as minimum, mean and maximum temperature, relative humidity and saturation deficit with TBEV pool prevalence. The climatic data were acquired from the nearest meteorological stations for 2015 and 2016. This study confirms the presence of TBEV in 12 out of 30 locations in Denmark, where six were from Jutland, three from Zealand and two from Bornholm and Falster counties. In total, five out of nine sites were positive from southern Sweden. TBEV prevalence of 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.5%, in nymphs, was found at three sites along the Oslofjord (two sites) and northern Skåne region (one site), indicating a potential concern for public health. We report an overall estimated TBEV prevalence of 0.1% in questing I. ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia with a region-specific prevalence of 0.1% in Denmark, 0.2% in southern Sweden and 0.1% in southeastern Norway. No evidence of a spatial pattern or local clusters was found in the study region. We found a strong correlation between TBEV prevalence in ticks and relative humidity in Sweden and Norway, which might suggest that humidity has a role in maintaining TBEV prevalence in ticks. TBEV is an emerging tick-borne pathogen in southern Scandinavia, and we recommend further studies to understand the TBEV transmission potential with changing climate in Scandinavia.
Wiley-VCH
2023
Modelling the coupled mercury-halogen-ozone cycle in the central Arctic during spring
Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.
2023