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This paper describes the Eulerian urban dispersion model EPISODE. EPISODE was developed to address a need for an urban air quality model in support of policy, planning, and air quality management in the Nordic, specifically Norwegian, setting. It can be used for the calculation of a variety of airborne pollutant concentrations, but we focus here on the implementation and application of the model for NO2 pollution. EPISODE consists of an Eulerian 3D grid model with embedded sub-grid dispersion models (e.g. a Gaussian plume model) for dispersion of pollution from line (i.e. roads) and point sources (e.g. chimney stacks). It considers the atmospheric processes advection, diffusion, and an NO2 photochemistry represented using the photostationary steady-state approximation for NO2. EPISODE calculates hourly air concentrations representative of the grids and at receptor points. The latter allow EPISODE to estimate concentrations representative of the levels experienced by the population and to estimate their exposure. This methodological framework makes it suitable for simulating NO2 concentrations at fine-scale resolution (<100 m) in Nordic environments. The model can be run in an offline nested mode using output concentrations from a global or regional chemical transport model and forced by meteorology from an external numerical weather prediction model; it also can be driven by meteorological observations. We give a full description of the overall model function and its individual components. We then present a case study for six Norwegian cities whereby we simulate NO2 pollution for the entire year of 2015. The model is evaluated against in situ observations for the entire year and for specific episodes of enhanced pollution during winter. We evaluate the model performance using the FAIRMODE DELTA Tool that utilises traditional statistical metrics, e.g. root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation R, and bias, along with some specialised tests for air quality model evaluation. We find that EPISODE attains the DELTA Tool model quality objective in all of the stations we evaluate against. Further, the other statistical evaluations show adequate model performance but that the model scores greatly improved correlations during winter and autumn compared to the summer. We attribute this to the use of the photostationary steady-state scheme for NO2, which should perform best in the absence of local ozone photochemical production. Oslo does not comply with the NO2 annual limit set in the 2008/50/EC directive (AQD). NO2 pollution episodes with the highest NO2 concentrations, which lead to the occurrence of exceedances of the AQD hourly limit for NO2, occur primarily in the winter and autumn in Oslo, so this strongly supports the use of EPISODE for application to these wintertime events. Overall, we conclude that the model is suitable for an assessment of annual mean NO2 concentrations and also for the study of hourly NO2 concentrations in the Nordic winter and autumn environment. Further, in this work we conclude that it is suitable for a range of policy applications specific to NO2 that include pollution episode analysis, evaluation of seasonal statistics, policy and planning support, and air quality management. Lastly, we identify a series of model developments specifically designed to address the limitations of the current model assumptions. Part 2 of this two-part paper discusses the CityChem extension to EPISODE, which includes a number of implementations such as a more comprehensive photochemical scheme suitable for describing more chemical species and a more diverse range of photochemical environments, as well as a more advanced treatment of the sub-grid dispersion.
2020
Understanding the global distribution of atmospheric black carbon (BC) is essential for unveiling its climatic effect. However, there are still large uncertainties regarding the simulation of BC transport due to inadequate information about the removal process. We accessed the wet removal rate of BC in East Asia based on long-term measurements over the 2010–2016 period at three representative background sites (Baengnyeong and Gosan in South Korea and Noto in Japan). The average wet removal rate, represented by transport efficiency (TE), i.e., the fraction of undeposited BC particles during transport, was estimated to be 0.73 in East Asia from 2010 to 2016. According to the relationship between accumulated precipitation along trajectory and TE, the wet removal efficiency was lower in East and North China but higher in South Korea and Japan, implying the importance of the aging process and frequency of exposure to below- and in-cloud scavenging conditions during air mass transport. Moreover, the wet scavenging in winter and summer showed the highest and lowest efficiency, respectively, although the lowest removal efficiency in summer was primarily associated with a reduced BC aging process because the in-cloud scavenging condition was dominant. The average half-life and e-folding lifetime of BC were 2.8 and 7.1 d, respectively, which is similar to previous studies, but those values differed according to the geographical location and meteorological conditions of each site. Next, by comparing TE from the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) Lagrangian transport model (version 10.4), we diagnosed the scavenging coefficients (s−1) of the below- and in-cloud scavenging scheme implemented in FLEXPART. The overall median TE from FLEXPART (0.91) was overestimated compared to the measured value, implying the underestimation of wet scavenging coefficients in the model simulation. The median of the measured below-cloud scavenging coefficient showed a lower value than that calculated according to FLEXPART scheme by a factor of 1.7. On the other hand, the overall median of the calculated in-cloud scavenging coefficients from the FLEXPART scheme was highly underestimated by 1 order of magnitude, compared to the measured value. From an analysis of artificial neural networks, the convective available potential energy, which is well known as an indicator of vertical instability, should be considered in the in-cloud scavenging process to improve the representative regional difference in BC wet scavenging over East Asia. For the first time, this study suggests an effective and straightforward evaluation method for wet scavenging schemes (both below and in cloud), by introducing TE along with excluding effects from the inaccurate emission inventories.
2020
Multi-decadal surface ozone trends at globally distributed remote locations
Extracting globally representative trend information from lower tropospheric ozone observations is extremely difficult due to the highly variable distribution and interannual variability of ozone, and the ongoing shift of ozone precursor emissions from high latitudes to low latitudes. Here we report surface ozone trends at 27 globally distributed remote locations (20 in the Northern Hemisphere, 7 in the Southern Hemisphere), focusing on continuous time series that extend from the present back to at least 1995. While these sites are only representative of less than 25% of the global surface area, this analysis provides a range of regional long-term ozone trends for the evaluation of global chemistry-climate models. Trends are based on monthly mean ozone anomalies, and all sites have at least 20 years of data, which improves the likelihood that a robust trend value is due to changes in ozone precursor emissions and/or forced climate change rather than naturally occurring climate variability. Since 1995, the Northern Hemisphere sites are nearly evenly split between positive and negative ozone trends, while 5 of 7 Southern Hemisphere sites have positive trends. Positive trends are in the range of 0.5-2 ppbv decade-1, with ozone increasing at Mauna Loa by roughly 50% since the late 1950s. Two high elevation Alpine sites, discussed by previous assessments, exhibit decreasing ozone trends in contrast to the positive trend observed by IAGOS commercial aircraft in the European lower free-troposphere. The Alpine sites frequently sample polluted European boundary layer air, especially in summer, and can only be representative of lower free tropospheric ozone if the data are carefully filtered to avoid boundary layer air. The highly variable ozone trends at these 27 surface sites are not necessarily indicative of free tropospheric trends, which have been overwhelmingly positive since the mid-1990s, as shown by recent studies of ozonesonde and aircraft observations.
2020
2020
Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions
In recent years, marine, freshwater and terrestrial pollution with microplastics has been discussed extensively, whereas atmospheric microplastic transport has been largely overlooked. Here, we present global simulations of atmospheric transport of microplastic particles produced by road traffic (TWPs – tire wear particles and BWPs – brake wear particles), a major source that can be quantified relatively well. We find a high transport efficiencies of these particles to remote regions. About 34% of the emitted coarse TWPs and 30% of the emitted coarse BWPs (100 kt yr−1 and 40 kt yr−1 respectively) were deposited in the World Ocean. These amounts are of similar magnitude as the total estimated direct and riverine transport of TWPs and fibres to the ocean (64 kt yr−1). We suggest that the Arctic may be a particularly sensitive receptor region, where the light-absorbing properties of TWPs and BWPs may also cause accelerated warming and melting of the cryosphere.
2020
Thyroid hormone disrupting chemicals (THDCs) are of major concern in ecotoxicology. With the increased number of emerging chemicals on the market there is a need to screen for potential THDCs in a cost-efficient way, and in silico modeling is an alternative to address this issue. In this study homology modeling and docking was used to screen a list of 626 compounds for potential thyroid hormone disrupting properties in two gull species. The tested compounds were known contaminants or emerging contaminants predicted to have the potential to reach the Arctic. Models of transthyretin (TTR) and thyroid hormone receptor α and β (TRα and TRβ) from the Arctic top predator glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) and temperate predator herring gull (Larus argentatus) were constructed and used to predict the binding affinity of the compounds to the thyroid hormone (TH) binding sites. The modeling predicted that 28, 4 and 330 of the contaminants would bind to TRα, TRβ and TTR respectively. These compounds were in general halogenated, aromatic and had polar functional groups, like that of THs. However, the predicted binders did not necessarily have all these properties, such as the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances that are not aromatic and still bind to the proteins.
2020
The Arctic is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the Earth, with predicted temperature increases of 5–7 ∘C and the accompanying extensive retreat of Arctic glacial systems by 2100. Retreating glaciers will reveal new land surfaces for microbial colonisation, ultimately succeeding to tundra over decades to centuries. An unexplored dimension to these changes is the impact upon the emission and consumption of halogenated organic compounds (halocarbons). Halocarbons are involved in several important atmospheric processes, including ozone destruction, and despite considerable research, uncertainties remain in the natural cycles of some of these compounds. Using flux chambers, we measured halocarbon fluxes across the glacier forefield (the area between the present-day position of a glacier's ice-front and that at the last glacial maximum) of a high-Arctic glacier in Svalbard, spanning recently exposed sediments (<10 years) to approximately 1950-year-old tundra. Forefield land surfaces were found to consume methyl chloride (CH3Cl) and methyl bromide (CH3Br), with both consumption and emission of methyl iodide (CH3I) observed. Bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) have rarely been measured from terrestrial sources but were here found to be emitted across the forefield. Novel measurements conducted on terrestrial cyanobacterial mats covering relatively young surfaces showed similar measured fluxes to the oldest, vegetated tundra sites for CH3Cl, CH3Br, and CH3I (which were consumed) and for CHCl3 and CHBr3 (which were emitted). Consumption rates of CH3Cl and CH3Br and emission rates of CHCl3 from tundra and cyanobacterial mat sites were within the ranges reported from older and more established Arctic tundra elsewhere. Rough calculations showed total emissions and consumptions of these gases across the Arctic were small relative to other sources and sinks due to the small surface area represented by glacier forefields. We have demonstrated that glacier forefields can consume and emit halocarbons despite their young age and low soil development, particularly when cyanobacterial mats are present.
2020
A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks
Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.
2020
Anthropogenic, Direct Pressures on Coastal Wetlands
Coastal wetlands, such as saltmarshes and mangroves that fringe transitional waters, deliver important ecosystem services that support human development. Coastal wetlands are complex social-ecological systems that occur at all latitudes, from polar regions to the tropics. This overview covers wetlands in five continents. The wetlands are of varying size, catchment size, human population and stages of economic development. Economic sectors and activities in and around the coastal wetlands and their catchments exert multiple, direct pressures. These pressures affect the state of the wetland environment, ecology and valuable ecosystem services. All the coastal wetlands were found to be affected in some ways, irrespective of the conservation status. The main economic sectors were agriculture, animal rearing including aquaculture, fisheries, tourism, urbanization, shipping, industrial development and mining. Specific human activities include land reclamation, damming, draining and water extraction, construction of ponds for aquaculture and salt extraction, construction of ports and marinas, dredging, discharge of effluents from urban and industrial areas and logging, in the case of mangroves, subsistence hunting and oil and gas extraction. The main pressures were loss of wetland habitat, changes in connectivity affecting hydrology and sedimentology, as well as contamination and pollution. These pressures lead to changes in environmental state, such as erosion, subsidence and hypoxia that threaten the sustainability of the wetlands. There are also changes in the state of the ecology, such as loss of saltmarsh plants and seagrasses, and mangrove trees, in tropical wetlands. Changes in the structure and function of the wetland ecosystems affect ecosystem services that are often underestimated. The loss of ecosystem services impacts human welfare as well as the regulation of climate change by coastal wetlands. These cumulative impacts and multi-stressors are further aggravated by indirect pressures, such as sea-level rise.
2020
Safe(r) by design implementation in the nanotechnology industry
The implementation of Safe(r) by Design (SbD) in industrial innovations requires an integrated approach where the human, environmental and economic impact of the SbD measures is evaluated across and throughout the nanomaterial (NM) life cycle. SbD was implemented in six industrial companies where SbD measures were applied to NMs, nano-enabled products (NEPs) and NM/NEP manufacturing processes. The approach considers human and environmental risks, functionality of the NM/NEP and costs as early as possible in the innovation process, continuing throughout the innovation progresses. Based on the results of the evaluation, a decision has to be made on whether to continue, stop or re-design the NM/NEP/process or to carry out further tests/obtain further data in cases where the uncertainty of the human and environmental risks is too large. However, SbD can also be implemented at later stages when there is already a prototype product or process available, as demonstrated in some of the cases. The SbD measures implemented in some of the case studies did not result in a viable solution. For example the coating of silicon nanoparticles with amorphous carbon increased the conductivity, the stability and reduced the dustiness of the particles and therefore the risk of explosion and the exposure to workers. However the socioeconomic assessment for their use in lithium-ion batteries for cars, when compared to the use of graphite, showed that the increase in performance did not overcome the higher production costs. This work illustrates the complexities of selecting the most appropriate SbD measures and highlights that SbD cannot be solely based on a hazard and exposure assessment but must include other impacts that any SbD measures may have on sustainability including energy consumption and waste generation as well as all associated monetary costs.
2020