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Electronic waste is a source of both legacy and emerging flame retardants to the environment, especially in regions where sufficient waste handling systems are lacking. In the present study, we quantified the occurrence of short- and medium chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs and MCCPs) and dechloranes in household chicken (Gallus domesticus) eggs and soil collected near waste disposal sites on Zanzibar and the Tanzanian mainland. Sampling locations included an e-waste facility and the active dumpsite of Dar es Salaam, a historical dumpsite in Dar es Salaam, and an informal dumpsite on Zanzibar. We compared concentrations and contaminant profiles between soil and eggs, as free-range chickens ingest a considerable amount of soil during foraging, with potential for maternal transfer to the eggs. We found no correlation between soil and egg concentrations or patterns of dechloranes or CPs. CPs with shorter chain lengths and higher chlorination degree were associated with soil, while longer chain lengths and lower chlorination degree were associated with eggs. MCCPs dominated the CP profile in eggs, with median concentrations ranging from 500 to 900 ng/g lipid weight (lw) among locations. SCCP concentrations in eggs ranged from below the detection limit (LOD) to 370 ng/g lw. Dechlorane Plus was the dominating dechlorane compound in all egg samples, with median concentrations ranging from 0.5 to 2.8 ng/g lw. SCCPs dominated in the soil samples (400–21300 ng/g soil organic matter, SOM), except at the official dumpsite where MCCPs were highest (65000 ng/g SOM). Concentrations of dechloranes in soil ranged from below LOD to 240 ng/g SOM, and the dominating compounds were Dechlorane Plus and Dechlorane 603. Risk assessment of CP levels gave margins of exposure (MOE) close to or below 1000 for SCCPs at one location.
Pergamon Press
2023
Response of Total Column Ozone at High Latitudes to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
The total column ozone (TCO) at northern high latitudes is increased over a course of 1–2 months after a major sudden stratospheric warming as a consequence of enhanced ozone eddy transport and diffusive ozone fluxes. We analyzed ground-based measurements of TCO from Oslo, Andøya and Ny Ålesund from 2000 to 2020. During this time interval, 15 major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occurred. The observed TCO variations are in a good agreement with those of ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), showing that TCO from ERA5 is reliable, even during dynamically active periods. ERA5 has the advantage that it has no data gaps during the polar night. We found that TCO was increased by up to 190 DU after the SSW of February 2010, over one month. The composite analysis of the 15 SSWs provided the result that TCO is increased on average by about 50 DU over one month after the central date of the SSW.
MDPI
2023
2023
Populations of killer whale (Orcinus orca) contain some of the most polluted animals on Earth. Yet, the knowledge on effects of chemical pollutants is limited in this species. Cell cultures and in vitro exposure experiments are pertinent tools to study effects of pollutants in free-ranging marine mammals. To investigate transcriptional responses to pollutants in killer whale cells, we collected skin biopsies of killer whales from the Northern Norwegian fjords and successfully established primary fibroblast cell cultures from the dermis of 4 out of 5 of them. Cells from the individual with the highest cell yield were exposed to three different concentrations of a mixture of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that reflects the composition of the 10 most abundant POPs found in Norwegian killer whales (p,p’-DDE, trans-nonachlor, PCB52, 99, 101, 118, 138, 153, 180, 187). Transcriptional responses of 13 selected target genes were studied using digital droplet PCR, and whole transcriptome responses were investigated utilizing RNA sequencing. Among the target genes analysed, CYP1A1 was significantly downregulated in the cells exposed to medium (11.6 µM) and high (116 µM) concentrations of the pollutant mixture, while seven genes involved in endocrine functions showed a non-significant tendency to be upregulated at the highest exposure concentration. Bioinformatic analyses of RNA-seq data indicated that 13 and 43 genes were differentially expressed in the cells exposed to low and high concentrations of the mixture, respectively, in comparison to solvent control. Subsequent pathway and functional analyses of the differentially expressed genes indicated that the enriched pathways were mainly related to lipid metabolism, myogenesis and glucocorticoid receptor regulation. The current study results support previous correlative studies and provide cause-effect relationships, which is highly relevant for chemical and environmental management.
Elsevier
2023
Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations
After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the “ozone-recovery” period (2000–2020) at northern high latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significantly positive annual trends at Andøya (0.9±0.7 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5±0.1 % per decade) and no significant annual trend at Oslo (0.1±0.5 % per decade) but significantly positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication of Arctic springtime ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.
2023
Academic Press
2023
Urban & Fischer
2023
Field data from two latitudinal transects in Europe and Canada were gathered to better characterize the atmospheric fate of three cyclic methylsiloxanes (cVMSs), i.e., octamethyl-cyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6). During a year-long, seasonally resolved outdoor air sampling campaign, passive samplers with an ultra-clean sorbent were deployed at 15 sampling sites covering latitudes ranging from the source regions (43.7–50.7 °N) to the Arctic (79–82.5 °N). For each site, one of two passive samplers and one of two field blanks were separately extracted and analyzed for the cVMSs at two different laboratories using gas-chromatography-mass spectrometry. Whereas the use of a particular batch of sorbent and the applied cleaning procedure to a large extent controlled the levels of cVMS in field blanks, and therefore also the method detection and quantification limits, minor site-specific differences in field blank contamination were apparent. Excellent agreement between duplicates was obtained, with 95% of the concentrations reported by the two laboratories falling within a factor of 1.6 of each other. Nearly all data show a monotonic relationship between the concentration and distance from the major source regions. Concentrations in source regions were comparatively constant throughout the year, while the concentration gradient towards remote regions became steeper during summer when removal via OH radicals is at its maximum. Concentrations of the different cVMS oligomers were highly correlated within a given transect. Changes in relative abundance of cVMS oligomers along the transect were in agreement with relative atmospheric degradation rates via OH radicals.
Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
2023
HERIe was used to model the effect of changes to indoor climate on the risk of humidity-induced mechanical damage (cracking and plastic deformation) to wooden panels painted with stiff gesso in two Norwegian medieval stone churches: Kinn (mean relative humidity (RH, %) = 79%) on the humid west coast, and Ringsaker (mean RH = 49%) in the drier eastern part of the country. The risk involved in moving cultural heritage objects (paint on wood) between the churches and a conservation studio with more “ideal”, stable conditions was also modeled. A hypothetical reduction in RH to ~65% and, proportionally, of the climate fluctuations in Kinn, and an increase in the RH in Ringsaker to a more stable value of ~63% via conservation heating, were found to improve (Kinn) and uphold (Ringsaker) the conformity to relevant standards and significantly reduce the risk of damage, except in the scenario of moving objects from Ringsaker to a conservation studio, when the risk would increase. The use of conservation heating could save ~50% of the heating cost. The estimated risk reductions may be less relevant for objects kept in situ, where cracks in the original paint and gesso have developed historically. They may be more relevant when moving original objects away from their proofed climate into a conservation studio for treatment.
MDPI
2023
In Europe, emissions of many air pollutants have decreased in recent decades, but there exist sites where concentrations of pollutants are still high and have become a public health problem. The air quality monitoring networks include urban stations in big cities and rural background stations. Main pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO, particulate matter) are measured automatically and reported on hourly basis, but there is very few research about air quality in small towns. The small towns are important transport nodes between cities and nowadays they are growing bigger, often being focused on seasonal tourism. In this paper, we try to understand the level of pollution in three small towns in Northern Europe, namely Otepää (Estonia), Lillehammer (Norway) and Saldus (Latvia) This research we point at seasonality of air pollution in towns related with winter sport activities, where the traffic flow increases in cold time simultaneously with heating season and higher prevalence of thermal inversions in atmospheric surface layer. Concentration peak of PM10 in Northern Europe appears in early spring, in snow thawing season and shortly after that. Even higher episodic concentrations may occur near unpaved streets in dry season. High seasonal variation of measured nitrogen dioxide concentrations was found in Lillehammer and Otepää, with remarkable contributions of traffic hotspots. This paper confirms that it is worth to study the air quality in small towns, furthermore, because air pollution levels and related public health concerns in small towns are not negligible.
Springer
2023
Deployment and Evaluation of a Network of Open Low-Cost Air Quality Sensor Systems
Low-cost air quality sensors have the potential to complement the regulatory network of air quality monitoring stations, with respect to increased spatial density of observations, however, their data quality continues to be of concern. Here we report on our experience with a small network of open low-cost sensor systems for air quality, which was deployed in the region of Stavanger, Norway, under Nordic winter conditions. The network consisted of AirSensEUR sensor systems, equipped with sensors for, among others, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter. The systems were co-located at an air quality monitoring station, for a period of approximately six weeks. A subset of the systems was subsequently deployed at various roadside locations for half a year, and finally co-located at the same air quality monitoring station again, for a post-deployment evaluation. For fine particulate matter, the co-location results indicate a good inter-unit consistency, but poor average out-of-the-box performance (R2 = 0.25, RMSE = 9.6 μ
g m−3). While Köhler correction did not significantly improve the accuracy in our study, filtering for high relative humidity conditions improved the results (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 7.09 μg m−3). For nitrogen dioxide, the inter-unit consistency was found to be excellent, and calibration models were developed which showed good performance during the testing period (on average R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 5.73 μg m−3), however, due to the short training period, the calibration models are likely not able to capture the full annual variability in environmental conditions. A post-deployment co-location showed, respectively, a slight and significant decrease in inter-sensor consistency for fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide. We further demonstrate, how observations from even such a small network can be exploited by assimilation in a high-resolution air quality model, thus adding value to both the observations and the model, and ultimately providing a more comprehensive perspective of air quality than is possible from either of the two input datasets alone. Our study provides valuable insights on the operation and performance of an open sensor system for air quality, particularly under challenging Nordic environmental conditions.
MDPI
2023
Spatial variability and temporal changes of POPs in European background air
Concentration data on POPs in air is necessary to assess the effectiveness of international regulations aiming to reduce the emissions of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) into the environment. POPs in European background air are continuously monitored using active- and passive air sampling techniques at a limited number of atmospheric monitoring stations. As a result of the low spatial resolution of such continuous monitoring, there is limited understanding of the main sources controlling the atmospheric burdens of POPs across Europe. The key objectives of this study were to measure the spatial and temporal variability of concentrations of POPs in background air with a high spatial resolution (n = 101) across 33 countries within Europe, and to use observations and models in concert to assess if the measured concentrations are mainly governed by secondary emissions or continuing primary emissions. Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was not only the POP detected in highest concentrations (median: 67 pg/m3), but also the only POP that had significantly increased over the last decade. HCB was also the only POP that was positively correlated to latitude. For the other targeted POPs, the highest concentrations were observed in the southern part of Europe, and a declining temporal trend was observed. Spatial differences in temporal changes were observed. For example, γ-HCH (hexachlorocyclohexane) had the largest decrease in the south of Europe, while α-HCH had declined the most in central-east Europe. High occurrence of degradation products of the organochlorine pesticides and isomeric ratios indicated past usage. Model predictions of PCB-153 (2,2’,4,4’,5,5’-hexachlorobiphenyl) by the Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System suggest that secondary emissions are more important than primary emissions in controlling atmospheric burdens, and that the relative importance of primary emissions are more influential in southern Europe compared to northern Europe. Our study highlights the major advantages of combining high spatial resolution observations with mechanistic modelling approaches to provide insights on the relative importance of primary- and secondary emission sources in Europe. Such knowledge is considered vital for policy makers aiming to assess the potential for further emission reduction strategies of legacy POPs.
Elsevier
2023
Titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2 NPs) are used in a wide range of applications. Although inhalation of NPs is one of the most important toxicologically relevant routes, experimental studies on potential harmful effects of TiO2 NPs using a whole-body inhalation chamber model are rare. In this study, the profile of lymphocyte markers, functional immunoassays, and antioxidant defense markers were analyzed to evaluate the potential adverse effects of seven-week inhalation exposure to two different concentrations of TiO2 NPs (0.00167 and 0.1308 mg TiO2/m3) in mice. A dose-dependent effect of TiO2 NPs on innate immunity was evident in the form of stimulated phagocytic activity of monocytes in low-dose mice and suppressed secretory function of monocytes (IL-18) in high-dose animals. The effect of TiO2 NPs on adaptive immunity, manifested in the spleen by a decrease in the percentage of T-cells, a reduction in T-helper cells, and a dose-dependent decrease in lymphocyte cytokine production, may indicate immunosuppression in exposed mice. The dose-dependent increase in GSH concentration and GSH/GSSG ratio in whole blood demonstrated stimulated antioxidant defense against oxidative stress induced by TiO2 NP exposure.
MDPI
2023
Procellariiform seabirds like northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) are prone to ingest and accumulate floating plastic pieces. In the North Sea region, there is a long tradition to use beached fulmars as biomonitors for marine plastic pollution. Monitoring data revealed consistently lower plastic burdens in adult fulmars compared to younger age classes. Those findings were hypothesized to partly result from parental transfer of plastic to chicks. However, no prior study has examined this mechanism in fulmars by comparing plastic burdens in fledglings and older fulmars shortly after the chick-rearing period. Therefore, we investigated plastic ingestion in 39 fulmars from Kongsfjorden (Svalbard), including 21 fledglings and 18 older fulmars (adults/older immatures). We found that fledglings (50–60 days old) had significantly more plastic than older fulmars. While plastic was found in all fledglings, two older fulmars contained no and several older individuals barely any plastic. These findings supported that fulmar chicks from Svalbard get fed high quantities of plastic by their parents. Adverse effects of plastic on fulmars were indicated by one fragment that perforated the stomach and possibly one thread perforating the intestine. Negative correlations between plastic mass and body fat in fledglings and older fulmars were not significant.
2023
A flexible algorithm for network design based on information theory
A novel method for atmospheric network design is presented, which is based on information theory. The method does not require calculation of the posterior uncertainty (or uncertainty reduction) and is therefore computationally more efficient than methods that require this. The algorithm is demonstrated in two examples: the first looks at designing a network for monitoring CH4 sources using observations of the stable carbon isotope ratio in CH4 (δ13C), and the second looks at designing a network for monitoring fossil fuel emissions of CO2 using observations of the radiocarbon isotope ratio in CO2 (Δ14CO2).
2023
Global agricultural ammonia emissions simulated with the ORCHIDEE land surface mode
Ammonia (NH3) is an important atmospheric constituent. It plays a role in air quality and climate through the formation of ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate particles. It has also an impact on ecosystems through deposition processes. About 85 % of NH3 global anthropogenic emissions are related to food and feed production and, in particular, to the use of mineral fertilizers and manure management. Most global chemistry transport models (CTMs) rely on bottom-up emission inventories, which are subject to significant uncertainties. In this study, we estimate emissions from livestock by developing a new module to calculate ammonia emissions from the whole agricultural sector (from housing and storage to grazing and fertilizer application) within the ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems) global land surface model. We detail the approach used for quantifying livestock feed management, manure application, and indoor and soil emissions and subsequently evaluate the model performance. Our results reflect China, India, Africa, Latin America, the USA, and Europe as the main contributors to global NH3 emissions, accounting for 80 % of the total budget. The global calculated emissions reach 44 Tg N yr−1 over the 2005–2015 period, which is within the range estimated by previous work. Key parameters (e.g., the pH of the manure, timing of N application, and atmospheric NH3 surface concentration) that drive the soil emissions have also been tested in order to assess the sensitivity of our model. Manure pH is the parameter to which modeled emissions are the most sensitive, with a 10 % change in emissions per percent change in pH. Even though we found an underestimation in our emissions over Europe (−26 %) and an overestimation in the USA (+56 %) compared with previous work, other hot spot regions are consistent. The calculated emission seasonality is in very good agreement with satellite-based emissions. These encouraging results prove the potential of coupling ORCHIDEE land-based emissions to CTMs, which are currently forced by bottom-up anthropogenic-centered inventories such as the CEDS (Community Emissions Data System).
2023
On coarse patterns in the atmospheric concentration of ice nucleating particles
The atmospheric concentration of ice nucleating particles active at around −10 °C (INP−10) is very low. Nevertheless, these particles play a role in the development of cloud systems, so their spatial and temporal patterns merit attention. We collated available datasets on INP−10 to identify such patterns. Among the five low altitude observatories in northern Eurasia, median values throughout May to October were lowest in Scandinavia (4 and 6 m−3), somewhat higher in central Europe (11 m−3), substantially higher in the West Siberian Plain (69 m−3) and highest in the Central Yakutian Lowland (204 m−3), suggesting that the abundance of INP−10 in northern Eurasia may increase with continentality and from West to East. The range of values at the same observatories was narrower throughout November to April (2 to 27 m−3). On average, by an order of magnitude smaller values were reported for the four Arctic observatories. Consequently, increasing poleward transport of air masses from the midlatitudes likely raises the concentration of INP−10 in the Arctic, particularly when air masses had surface contact in eastern parts of northern Eurasia.
Elsevier
2023
Radiocarbon (14C) analysis of carbonaceous aerosols is used for source apportionment, separating the carbon content into fossil vs. non-fossil origin, and is particularly useful when applied to subfractions of total carbon (TC), i.e. elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), water-soluble OC (WSOC), and water-insoluble OC (WINSOC). However, this requires an unbiased physical separation of these fractions, which is difficult to achieve. Separation of EC from OC using thermal–optical analysis (TOA) can cause EC loss during the OC removal step and form artificial EC from pyrolysis of OC (i.e. so-called charring), both distorting the 14C analysis of EC. Previous work has shown that water extraction reduces charring. Here, we apply a new combination of a WSOC extraction and 14C analysis method with an optimised separation that is coupled with a novel approach of thermal-desorption modelling for compensation of EC losses. As water-soluble components promote the formation of pyrolytic carbon, water extraction was used to minimise the charring artefact of EC and the eluate subjected to chemical wet oxidation to CO2 before direct 14C analysis in a gas-accepting accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS). This approach was applied to 13 aerosol filter samples collected at the Arctic Zeppelin Observatory (Svalbard) in 2017 and 2018, covering all seasons, which bear challenges for a simplified 14C source apportionment due to their low loading and the large portion of pyrolysable species. Our approach provided a mean EC yield of 0.87±0.07 and reduced the charring to 6.5 % of the recovered EC amounts. The mean fraction modern (F14C) over all seasons was 0.85±0.17 for TC; 0.61±0.17 and 0.66±0.16 for EC before and after correction with the thermal-desorption model, respectively; and 0.81±0.20 for WSOC.
2023
Sheath formation time for spherical Langmuir probes
The formation time of the surrounding sheath of Langmuir probes in an ionospheric plasma has been studied to better understand the constraints this puts on the sampling frequency of a probe. A fully kinetic three-dimensional particle-in-cell model is used to simulate the temporal effects in the electron saturation region as the sheath forms. The stability of the probe current and the stability of the ion and electron density in the vicinity of the probe have been used to evaluate when the sheath was formed. Simulated results were compared with theoretical models and are in good agreement with the theoretical results. This shows that theoretical models can be used as guidance to estimate the formation time and to determine the sampling rate for a swept bias Langmuir system. Our results also show that the formation time is less affected by the plasma temperature and bias voltage as we move into the thick sheath regime, and will instead be determined by the plasma density. The presented results also show that applying a step function to the probe could be used to characterise ions species composition, or to estimate the ion density.
Cambridge University Press
2023
An Unprecedented Arctic Ozone Depletion Event During Spring 2020 and Its Impacts Across Europe
The response of the ozone column across Europe to the extreme 2020 Arctic ozone depletion was examined by analyzing ground-based observations at 38 European stations. The ozone decrease at the northernmost site, Ny-Ålesund (79°N) was about 43% with respect to a climatology of more than 30 years. The magnitude of the decrease declined by about 0.7% deg−1 moving south to reach nearly 15% at 40°N. In addition, it was found that the variations of the ozone column at each of the selected stations in March-May were similar to those observed at Ny-Ålesund but with a delay increasing to about 20 days at mid-latitudes with a gradient of approximately 0.5 days deg−1. The distributions of reconstructed ozone column anomalies over a sector covering a large European area show decreasing ozone that started from the north at the beginning of April 2020 and spread south. Such behavior was shown to be similar to that observed after the Arctic ozone depletion in 2011. Stratospheric dynamical patterns in March–May 2011 and during 2020 suggested that the migration of ozone-poor air masses from polar areas to the south after the vortex breakup caused the observed ozone responses. A brief survey of the ozone mass mixing ratios at three stratospheric levels showed the exceptional strength of the 2020 episode. Despite the stronger and longer-lasting Arctic ozone loss in 2020, the analysis in this work indicates a similar ozone response at latitudes below 50°N to both 2011 and 2020 phenomena.
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2023
Plastic pollution has long been identified as one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. To tackle this problem, governments are setting stringent recycling targets to keep plastics in a closed loop. Yet, knowledge of the stocks and flows of plastic has not been well integrated into policies. This study presents a dynamic probabilistic economy-wide material flow analysis (MFA) of seven plastic polymers (HDPE, LDPE, PP, PS, PVC, EPS, and PET) in Norway from 2000 to 2050. A total of 40 individual product categories aggregated into nine industrial sectors were examined. An estimated 620 ± 23 kt or 114 kg/capita of these seven plastic polymers was put on the Norwegian market in 2020. Packaging products contributed to the largest share of plastic put on the market (∼40%). The accumulated in-use stock in 2020 was about 3400 ± 56 kt with ∼60% remaining in buildings and construction sector. In 2020, about 460 ± 22 kt of plastic waste was generated in Norway, with half originating from packaging. Although ∼50% of all plastic waste is collected separately from the waste stream, only around 25% is sorted for recycling. Overall, ∼50% of plastic waste is incinerated, ∼15% exported, and ∼10% landfilled. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the plastic put on the market, in-use stock, and waste generation will increase by 65%, 140%, and 90%, respectively by 2050. The outcomes of this work can be used as a guideline for other countries to establish the stocks and flows of plastic polymers from various industrial sectors which is needed for the implementation of necessary regulatory actions and circular strategies. The systematic classification of products suitable for recycling or be made of recyclate will facilitate the safe and sustainable recycling of plastic waste into new products, cap production, lower consumption, and prevent waste generation.
Elsevier
2023
Black carbon emitted by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass has a net warming effect in the atmosphere and reduces the albedo when deposited on ice and snow; accurate knowledge of past emissions is essential to quantify and model associated global climate forcing. Although bottom-up inventories provide historical Black Carbon emission estimates that are widely used in Earth System Models, they are poorly constrained by observations prior to the late 20th century. Here we use an objective inversion technique based on detailed atmospheric transport and deposition modeling to reconstruct 1850 to 2000 emissions from thirteen Northern Hemisphere ice-core records. We find substantial discrepancies between reconstructed Black Carbon emissions and existing bottom-up inventories which do not fully capture the complex spatial-temporal emission patterns. Our findings imply changes to existing historical Black Carbon radiative forcing estimates are necessary, with potential implications for observation-constrained climate sensitivity.
Springer Nature
2023
The AirGAM 2022r1 air quality trend and prediction model
This paper presents the AirGAM 2022r1 model – an air quality trend and prediction model developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) in cooperation with the European Environment Agency (EEA) over 2017–2021. AirGAM is based on nonlinear regression GAMs – generalised additive models – capable of estimating trends in daily measured pollutant concentrations at air quality monitoring stations, discounting for the effects of trends and time variations in corresponding meteorological data. The model has been developed primarily for the compounds NO2, O3, PM10, and PM2.5. Meteorological input data consist of temperature, wind speed and direction, planetary boundary layer height, relative and absolute humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation over the period considered. The exact set of meteorological variables used in the model depends on the compound selected for analysis. In addition to meteorological variables introduced in the model as covariates, i.e. explanatory variables for the concentration levels, the model also incorporates time variables such as the day of the week, day of the year, and overall time, which is related to the model's trend term. The trend analysis is performed at each station separately. Thus, the model only considers the temporal features of concentrations and meteorology at a station, rather than any spatial correlations or dependencies between stations. AirGAM is implemented using the R language for statistical computing and, in particular, the GAM package mgcv. In the model, meteorological and time covariates are represented and estimated as smooth nonlinear functions of the corresponding variables. Thus, the trend term is defined and estimated as a smooth nonlinear function of time over the period selected for analysis. Once fitted to training data, the model may be used as a prediction tool capable of predicting air pollutant concentrations for new sets of meteorological and time data which are not in the training set – e.g. for cross-validation or forecasting purposes. The model does not explicitly use emissions or background concentrations – these are sought to be implicitly represented through the estimated nonlinear relations between meteorology, time, and concentrations. In addition to meteorology-adjusted trends, the program also produces unadjusted trends – i.e. trends based on the same regression set-up but only including the time covariates. Both types of trends can be output in the same run, making it possible to compare them. Ideally, the meteorology-adjusted trend will show the trend in concentration mainly due to changes in emissions or physicochemical processes not induced by changes in meteorology. AirGAM has been developed and tested primarily in trend studies based on measurement data hosted by the EEA, including the AirBase data (before 2013) and the Air Quality e-Reporting (AQER) data from 2013 and onwards. Still, the model is general and could be applied in other regions with other input data. The EEA data provide daily or hourly surface measurements at individual monitoring stations in Europe. For input meteorological data, we extract time series from the gridded meteorological re-analysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for each monitoring station. The paper presents results with the model for all AirBase/AQER stations in Europe from the latest EEA trend study for 2005–2019.
2023
State of the Climate in 2021: The Arctic
American Meteorological Society
2022