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Further development of a modelling system able to link hemispheric-regional and local air pollution.
2003
We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH4 lifetime in the present day. The CH4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m−2 in the present day to 0.73 W m−2 in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O3 forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O3 mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O3 forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O3 forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.
IOP Publishing
2025
2023
2016
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
Fysisk bevaring av kulturminner - kunnskapsbehov mot 2020. NILU OR
NILU - Norsk institutt for luftforskning og NIKU - Norsk institutt for kulturminneforskning har etter søknad fått støtte av Riksantikvaren til å utarbeide et notat som belyser kunnskapsbehov i Norge relatert til fysisk bevaring av kulturminner.
2013
1999
1999
2011
2017
Gassco Kårstø. Miljøkonsekvenser av økte NOx-utslipp. NILU OR
Norsk institutt for luftforskning (NILU) har gjort spredningsberegninger av utslipp til luft for å vurdere konsekvensene av å øke utslippene av NOx fra dagens utslippnivå på 775 tonn/år til 906 tonn/år. Maksimum beregnet timemiddel av NO2 for kjelene på Kårstø er 12,8 µg/m3 (bakgrunn 1 µg/m3) slik at norske akseptkriterier er overholdt. Regionale modellberegninger med WRF-EMEP-modellen viser at beregnet maksimalt timemiddel for NO2 er 59 µg NO2/m3, mens maksimalt døgnmiddel er 19 µg NO2/m3 (alle utslipp inkludert). Bidraget fra økte utslipp (fra 775 til 906 tonn/år) er mindre enn 1% for tørravsetning og mindre enn 1¿ for våtavsetning, dvs mindre enn naturlige år-til-årvariasjoner.
2015
2022