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Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitters
Monitoring the spatial distribution and trends in surface greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes, is essential to track progress under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021, 2023), provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union (EU), and is expanded to include seven additional countries with large anthropogenic and/or natural emissions (the USA, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo)). Our aim is to demonstrate the use of different emission estimates to help improve national GHG emission inventories for a diverse geographical range of stakeholders.
We use updated national GHG inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Annex I parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2023 and the latest available biennial update reports (BURs) reported by non-Annex I parties. Comparing NGHGIs with other approaches highlights that different system boundaries are a key source of divergence. A key system boundary difference is whether anthropogenic and natural fluxes are included and, if they are, how fluxes belonging to these two sources are partitioned.
Over the studied period, the total CH4 emission estimates in the EU, the USA, and Russia show a steady decreasing trend since 1990, while for the non-Annex I emitters analyzed in this study, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and DR Congo, CH4 emissions have generally increased. Quantitatively, in the EU the mean of 2015–2020 anthropogenic UNFCCC NGHGIs (15±1.8 Tg CH4 yr−1) and the mean of the BU CH4 emissions (17.8 (16–19) Tg CH4 yr−1) generally agree on the magnitude, while inversions show higher emission estimates (medians of 21 (19–22) Tg CH4 yr−1 and 24 (22–25) Tg CH4 yr−1 for the three regional and six global inversions, respectively), as they include natural emissions, which for the EU were quantified at 6.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 (Petrescu et al., 2023). Similarly, for the other Annex I parties in this study (the USA and Russia), the gap between the BU anthropogenic and total TD emissions is partly explained by the natural emissions.
For the non-Annex I parties, anthropogenic CH4 estimates from UNFCCC BURs show large differences compared to the other global-inventory-based estimates and even more compared to atmospheric ones. This poses an important potential challenge to monitoring the progress of the global CH4 pledge and the global stocktake. Our analysis provides a useful baseline to prepare for the influx of inventories from non-Annex I parties as regular reporting starts under the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement.
By systematically comparing the BU and TD methods, this study provides recommendations for more robust comparisons of available data sources and hopes to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC inventories, as well as considering their natural emissions. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, future development needs to resolve knowledge gaps in the BU and TD approaches and to better quantify the remaining uncertainty. TD methods may emerge as a powerful tool to help improve NGHGIs of CH4 emissions, but further confidence is needed in the comparability and robustness of the estimates.
The referenced datasets related to figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12818506 (Petrescu et al., 2024).
2024
Miljøgifter i hybelkaniner: Forskerne oppfordrer til å støvsuge
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Høysesong for svevestøv: Bør vi sove med lukket vindu?
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Hvor kommer miljøgifter i Arktis fra? Møt NEM-modellen
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Nå kan forskere lenke direkte til data om atmosfæren i vitenskapelige artikler
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Ny rapport: Luftforurensningen i Oslo er verst blant de nordiske hovedstedene
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Miljøforskernes nye reklamedingser var fulle av miljøgifter
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Sør-Europa må forberede seg på skogbrann i sommer, mens Norge får regn
Norges forskningsråd
2024
Metal pollution is a global environmental issue with adverse biological effects on wildlife. Long-term studies that span declines in metal emissions due to regulation, resulting in varying levels of environmental contamination, are therefore well-suited to investigate effects of toxic metals, while also facilitating robust analysis by incorporating fluctuating environmental conditions and food availability. Here, we examined a resident population of tawny owls in Norway between 1986 and 2019. Tail feathers from females were collected annually, resulting in over 1000 feathers. Each feather served as an archive of local environmental conditions during molt, including the presence of metals, and their dietary ecology, proxied by stable isotopes of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C), as well as corticosterone levels (CORTf), the primary avian glucocorticoid and a measure of physiological stress. We analyzed feathers to examine how exposure to toxic metal(loid)s (Al, As, Cd, Hg, and Pb) and variability in dietary proxies modulate CORTf. Using structural equation modelling, we found that increased Al concentrations and δ15N values, linked directly to increased CORTf. In opposite, we found that increased Hg concentrations and δ13C related to decreased CORTf concentrations. δ15N was indirectly linked to CORTf through Al and Hg, while δ13C was indirectly linked to CORTf through Hg. This supports our hypothesis that metal exposure and dietary ecology may individually or jointly influence physiological stress. Notably, our results suggest that dietary ecology has the potential to mediate the impact of metals on CORTf, highlighting the importance of considering multiple variables, direct and indirect effects, when assessing stress in wildlife. In conclusion, feathers represent an excellent non-destructive biomonitoring strategy in avian wildlife, providing valuable insights not easily accessible using other methods. Further research is warranted to fully comprehend implications of alterations in CORTf on the tawny owl's health and fitness.
Elsevier
2024
2024
2024
Multi-Scale Soil Salinization Dynamics From Global to Pore Scale: A Review
Soil salinization refers to the accumulation of water-soluble salts in the upper part of the soil profile. Excessive levels of soil salinity affects crop production, soil health, and ecosystem functioning. This phenomenon threatens agriculture, food security, soil stability, and fertility leading to land degradation and loss of essential soil ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in soil salinization at various spatial and temporal scales, ranging from global to core, pore, and molecular scales, offering new insights and presenting our perspective on potential future research directions to address key challenges and open questions related to soil salinization. Globally, we identify significant challenges in understanding soil salinity, which are (a) the considerable uncertainty in estimating the total area of salt-affected soils, (b) geographical bias in ground-based measurements of soil salinity, and (c) lack of information and data detailing secondary salinization processes, both in dry- and wetlands, particularly concerning responses to climate change. At the core scale, the impact of salt precipitation with evolving porous structure on the evaporative fluxes from porous media is not fully understood. This knowledge is crucial for accurately predicting soil water loss due to evaporation. Additionally, the effects of transport properties of porous media, such as mixed wettability conditions, on the saline water evaporation and the resulting salt precipitation patterns remain unclear. Furthermore, effective continuum equations must be developed to accurately represent experimental data and pore-scale numerical simulations.
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024
Surface warming in Svalbard may have led to increases in highly active ice-nucleating particles
The roles of Arctic aerosols as ice-nucleating particles remain poorly understood, even though their effects on cloud microphysics are crucial for assessing the climate sensitivity of Arctic mixed-phase clouds and predicting their response to Arctic warming. Here we present a full-year record of ice-nucleating particle concentrations over Svalbard, where surface warming has been anomalously faster than the Arctic average. While the variation of ice-nucleating particles active at around −30 °C was relatively small, those active at higher temperatures (i.e., highly active ice-nucleating particles) tended to increase exponentially with rising surface air temperatures when the surface air temperatures rose above 0 °C and snow/ice-free barren and vegetated areas appeared in Svalbard. The aerosol population relevant to their increase was largely characterized by dust and biological organic materials that likely originated from local/regional terrestrial sources. Our results suggest that highly active ice-nucleating particles could be actively released from Arctic natural sources in response to surface warming.
Springer Nature
2024
Monitoring aerosol optical depth during the Arctic night: Instrument development and first results
Moon-photometric measurements were made at two locations in the Arctic during winter nights using two different modified Sun photometers; a Carter Scott SP02 and a Precision Filter Radiometer (PFR) developed at PMOD/WRC. Values of aerosol optical depth (AOD) were derived from spectral irradiance measurements made at four wavelengths for each of the devices. The SP02 was located near Barrow, Alaska and recorded data from November 2012 to March 2013, spanning five lunar cycles, while the PFR was deployed to Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard each winter from February 2014 to February 2019 for a total of 56 measurement periods. A methodology was developed to process the raw data, involving calibration of the instruments and normalizing measured spectral irradiance values in accordance with site-specific determinations of the extraterrestrial atmospheric irradiance (ETI) as Moon phase cycled. Uncertainties of the derived AOD values were also evaluated and found to be in the range, 0.006–0.030, depending on wavelength and which device was evaluated.
The magnitudes of AOD determined for the two sites were in general agreement with those reported in the literature for sunlit periods just before and after the dark periods of Arctic night. Those for the PFR were also compared with data obtained using star photometers and a Cimel CE318-T, recently deployed to Ny-Ålesund, showing that Moon photometry is viable as a means to monitor AOD during the Arctic night. Such data are valuable for more complete assessments of the role aerosols play in modulating climate, the validation of AOD derived using various remote sensing techniques, and applications related to climate modeling.
Elsevier
2024
State of the Climate in 2023 : Global Climate
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
2024
State of the Climate in 2023: The Arctic
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
2024
Data Report 2022. Particulate matter, carbonaceous and inorganic compounds
This report presents an overview of annual statistical summaries and methods for sampling and analysis of particulate matter, carbonaceous and inorganic compounds measured under the EMEP monitoring programme in 2022.
NILU
2024
Heavy metals and POP measurements 2022
This report presents an overview of the annual statistics and results from the monitoring programme of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in EMEP in 2022.
NILU
2024
Monitoring of the atmospheric ozone layer and natural ultraviolet radiation. Annual Report 2023
This report summarizes the results from the Norwegian monitoring programme on stratospheric ozone and UV radiation measurements. The ozone layer has been measured at three locations since 1979: In Oslo/Kjeller, Tromsø/Andøya and Ny-Ålesund. The UV measurements started in 1995. The results show that there was a significant decrease in stratospheric ozone above Norway between 1979 and 1997. After that, the ozone layer stabilized at a level ~2% below pre-1980 level. The year 2023 was characterized by low ozone values in winter, high spring values, and annual average total ozone values slightly below the long-term mean.
NILU
2024
A machine learning algorithm combined with measurements obtained by a NILU-UV irradiance meter enables the determination of total ozone column (TOC) amount and cloud optical depth (COD). In the New York City area, a NILU-UV instrument on the rooftop of a Stevens Institute of Technology building (40.74° N, −74.03° E) has been used to collect data for several years. Inspired by a previous study [Opt. Express 22, 19595 (2014)], this research presents an updated neural-network-based method for TOC and COD retrievals. This method provides reliable results under heavy cloud conditions, and a convenient algorithm for the simultaneous retrieval of TOC and COD values. The TOC values are presented for 2014–2023, and both were compared with results obtained using the look-up table (LUT) method and measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), deployed on NASA’s AURA satellite. COD results are also provided.
MDPI
2024