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Atmospheric composition in the European Arctic and 30 years of the Zeppelin Observatory, Ny-Ålesund
The Zeppelin Observatory (78.90∘ N, 11.88∘ E) is located on Zeppelin Mountain at 472 m a.s.l. on Spitsbergen, the largest island of the Svalbard archipelago. Established in 1989, the observatory is part of Ny-Ålesund Research Station and an important atmospheric measurement site, one of only a few in the high Arctic, and a part of several European and global monitoring programmes and research infrastructures, notably the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP); the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW); the Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure (ACTRIS); the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network; and the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS). The observatory is jointly operated by the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Stockholm University, and the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU). Here we detail the establishment of the Zeppelin Observatory including historical measurements of atmospheric composition in the European Arctic leading to its construction. We present a history of the measurements at the observatory and review the current state of the European Arctic atmosphere, including results from trends in greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), other traces gases, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals, aerosols and Arctic haze, and atmospheric transport phenomena, and provide an outline of future research directions.
2022
We combine observations from Western USA and inverse modelling to constrain global atmospheric emissions of microplastics (MPs) and microfibers (MFs). The latter are used further to model their global atmospheric dynamics. Global annual MP emissions were calculated as 9.6 ± 3.6 Tg and MF emissions as 6.5 ± 2.9 Tg. Global average monthly MP concentrations were 47 ng m-3 and 33 ng m-3 for MFs, at maximum. The largest deposition of agricultural MPs occurred close to the world’s largest agricultural regions. Road MPs mostly deposited in the East Coast of USA, Central Europe, and Southeastern Asia; MPs resuspended with mineral dust near Sahara and Middle East. Only 1.8% of the emitted mass of oceanic MPs was transferred to land, and 1.4% of land MPs to ocean; the rest were deposited in the same environment. Previous studies reported that 0.74–1.9 Tg y-1 of land-based atmospheric MPs/MFs (
2022
The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average, and the role of aerosols is not well constrained. Aerosol number concentrations can be very low in remote environments, rendering local cloud radiative properties highly sensitive to available aerosol. The composition and sources of the climate-relevant aerosols, affecting Arctic cloud formation and altering their microphysics, remain largely elusive due to a lack of harmonized concurrent multi-component, multi-site, and multi-season observations. Here, we present a dataset on the overall chemical composition and seasonal variability of the Arctic total particulate matter (with a size cut at 10 μm, PM10, or without any size cut) at eight observatories representing all Arctic sectors. Our holistic observational approach includes the Russian Arctic, a significant emission source area with less dedicated aerosol monitoring, and extends beyond the more traditionally studied summer period and black carbon/sulfate or fine-mode pollutants. The major airborne Arctic PM components in terms of dry mass are sea salt, secondary (non-sea-salt, nss) sulfate, and organic aerosol (OA), with minor contributions from elemental carbon (EC) and ammonium. We observe substantial spatiotemporal variability in component ratios, such as EC/OA, ammonium/nss-sulfate and OA/nss-sulfate, and fractional contributions to PM. When combined with component-specific back-trajectory analysis to identify marine or terrestrial origins, as well as the companion study by Moschos et al 2022 Nat. Geosci. focusing on OA, the composition analysis provides policy-guiding observational insights into sector-based differences in natural and anthropogenic Arctic aerosol sources. In this regard, we first reveal major source regions of inner-Arctic sea salt, biogenic sulfate, and natural organics, and highlight an underappreciated wintertime source of primary carbonaceous aerosols (EC and OA) in West Siberia, potentially associated with the oil and gas sector. The presented dataset can assist in reducing uncertainties in modelling pan-Arctic aerosol-climate interactions, as the major contributors to yearly aerosol mass can be constrained. These models can then be used to predict the future evolution of individual inner-Arctic atmospheric PM components in light of current and emerging pollution mitigation measures and improved region-specific emission inventories.
2022
Equal abundance of summertime natural and wintertime anthropogenic Arctic organic aerosols
Aerosols play an important yet uncertain role in modulating the radiation balance of the sensitive Arctic atmosphere. Organic aerosol is one of the most abundant, yet least understood, fractions of the Arctic aerosol mass. Here we use data from eight observatories that represent the entire Arctic to reveal the annual cycles in anthropogenic and biogenic sources of organic aerosol. We show that during winter, the organic aerosol in the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions, mainly from Eurasia, which consist of both direct combustion emissions and long-range transported, aged pollution. In summer, the decreasing anthropogenic pollution is replaced by natural emissions. These include marine secondary, biogenic secondary and primary biological emissions, which have the potential to be important to Arctic climate by modifying the cloud condensation nuclei properties and acting as ice-nucleating particles. Their source strength or atmospheric processing is sensitive to nutrient availability, solar radiation, temperature and snow cover. Our results provide a comprehensive understanding of the current pan-Arctic organic aerosol, which can be used to support modelling efforts that aim to quantify the climate impacts of emissions in this sensitive region.
2022
The influence of photochemistry on outdoor to indoor NO2 in some European museums
This paper reports 1 year of monthly average NO2 indoor to outdoor (I/O) concentrations measured in 10 European museums, and a simple steady-state box model that explains the annual variation. The measurements were performed in the EU FP5 project Master (EVK-CT-2002-00093). The work provides extensive documentation of the annual variation of NO2 I/O concentration ratios, with ratios above unity in the summer, in situations with no indoor emissions of NO2. The modelling included the most relevant production and removal processes of NO2 and showed that the outdoor photolysis was the probable main explanation of the annual trends in the NO2 I/O concentration ratios.
John Wiley & Sons
2022
Machine Learning-Based Digital Twin for Predictive Modeling in Wind Turbines
Wind turbines are one of the primary sources of renewable energy, which leads to a sustainable and efficient energy solution. It does not release any carbon emissions to pollute our planet. The wind farms monitoring and power generation prediction is a complex problem due to the unpredictability of wind speed. Consequently, it limits the decision power of the management team to plan the energy consumption in an effective way. Our proposed model solves this challenge by utilizing a 5G-Next Generation-Radio Access Network (5G-NG-RAN) assisted cloud-based digital twins’ framework to virtually monitor wind turbines and form a predictive model to forecast wind speed and predict the generated power. The developed model is based on Microsoft Azure digital twins infrastructure as a 5-dimensional digital twins platform. The predictive modeling is based on a deep learning approach, temporal convolution network (TCN) followed by a non-parametric k-nearest neighbor (kNN) regression. Predictive modeling has two components. First, it processes the univariate time series data of wind to predict its speed. Secondly, it estimates the power generation for each quarter of the year ranges from one week to a whole month (i.e., medium-term prediction) To evaluate the framework the experiments are performed on onshore wind turbines publicly available datasets. The obtained results confirm the applicability of the proposed framework. Furthermore, the comparative analysis with the existing classical prediction models shows that our designed approach obtained better results. The model can assist the management team to monitor the wind farms remotely as well as estimate the power generation in advance.
IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)
2022
Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.
MDPI
2022
Earth system and environmental impact studies need high quality and up-to-date estimates of atmospheric deposition. This study demonstrates the methodological benefits of multimodel ensemble and measurement-model fusion mapping approaches for atmospheric deposition focusing on 2010, a year for which several studies were conducted. Global model-only deposition assessment can be further improved by integrating new model-measurement techniques, including expanded capabilities of satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We identify research and implementation priorities for timely estimates of deposition globally as implemented by the World Meteorological Organization.
2022
Electrification of residential heating and investment in building energy efficiency are central pillars of many national strategies to reduce carbon emissions from the built environment sector. Ireland has a strong dependence on oil use for central heating and a substantial share of homes still using solid fuels. The current national strategy calls for the retrofitting of 400,000 home heating systems with heat pumps by 2030, principally replacing oil fired heating systems. Displacing natural gas, oil and solid fuel boilers with heat pumps will have a favourable impact on climate outcomes. However, the impact on air pollutant outcomes is far more favourable when solid fuels are replaced, and the positive impact on ambient air quality is much enhanced where concentrated clusters of solid-fuel use are targeted. This research spatially analyses emissions and air pollutant concentration outcomes for both targeted and non-targeted deployments of heat pumps and shows that a focused deployment of just 3% of the national heat pump target on solid-fuel homes could offer similar progress on climate goals but with a substantial impact in terms of reducing air pollution hot spots. For the Irish residential heating season (October–March), the targeted solid fuel scenario delivers average PM2.5 concentration decreases of 20–34%. This paper shows that these targeted communities are often in areas of relative deprivation, and as such, direct support for fabric retrofitting and heat pump technology installation offers the potential to simultaneously advance climate, air and just transition policy ambitions.
Elsevier
2022
Pharmacokinetics of PEGylated Gold Nanoparticles: In Vitro—In Vivo Correlation
Data suitable for assembling a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for nanoparticles (NPs) remain relatively scarce. Therefore, there is a trend in extrapolating the results of in vitro and in silico studies to in vivo nanoparticle hazard and risk assessment. To evaluate the reliability of such approach, a pharmacokinetic study was performed using the same polyethylene glycol-coated gold nanoparticles (PEG-AuNPs) in vitro and in vivo. As in vitro models, human cell lines TH1, A549, Hep G2, and 16HBE were employed. The in vivo PEG-AuNP biodistribution was assessed in rats. The internalization and exclusion of PEG-AuNPs in vitro were modeled as first-order rate processes with the partition coefficient describing the equilibrium distribution. The pharmacokinetic parameters were obtained by fitting the model to the in vitro data and subsequently used for PBPK simulation in vivo. Notable differences were observed in the internalized amount of Au in individual cell lines compared to the corresponding tissues in vivo, with the highest found for renal TH1 cells and kidneys. The main reason for these discrepancies is the absence of natural barriers in the in vitro conditions. Therefore, caution should be exercised when extrapolating in vitro data to predict the in vivo NP burden and response to exposure.
MDPI
2022
Acquired drug resistance and metastasis in breast cancer (BC) are coupled with epigenetic deregulation of gene expression. Epigenetic drugs, aiming to reverse these aberrant transcriptional patterns and sensitize cancer cells to other therapies, provide a new treatment strategy for drug-resistant tumors. Here we investigated the ability of DNA methyltransferase (DNMT) inhibitor decitabine (DAC) to increase the sensitivity of BC cells to anthracycline antibiotic doxorubicin (DOX). Three cell lines representing different molecular BC subtypes, JIMT-1, MDA-MB-231 and T-47D, were used to evaluate the synergy of sequential DAC + DOX treatment in vitro. The cytotoxicity, genotoxicity, apoptosis, and migration capacity were tested in 2D and 3D cultures. Moreover, genome-wide DNA methylation and transcriptomic analyses were employed to understand the differences underlying DAC responsiveness. The ability of DAC to sensitize trastuzumab-resistant HER2-positive JIMT-1 cells to DOX was examined in vivo in an orthotopic xenograft mouse model. DAC and DOX synergistic effect was identified in all tested cell lines, with JIMT-1 cells being most sensitive to DAC. Based on the whole-genome data, we assume that the aggressive behavior of JIMT-1 cells can be related to the enrichment of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and stemness-associated pathways in this cell line. The four-week DAC + DOX sequential administration significantly reduced the tumor growth, DNMT1 expression, and global DNA methylation in xenograft tissues. The efficacy of combination therapy was comparable to effect of pegylated liposomal DOX, used exclusively for the treatment of metastatic BC. This work demonstrates the potential of epigenetic drugs to modulate cancer cells' sensitivity to other forms of anticancer therapy.
Elsevier
2022
The modified Target Diagram (MTD) was developed to evaluate the performance of low-cost sensors (LCS) for air quality monitoring in comparison with reference methods by reporting relative expanded uncertainty and its contributors. An MTD provides several pieces of information, including compliance with regulation, sources of error and how to diminish them, completeness and validity of LCS calibration etc. It allows the user to examine the effect of selecting different regression types and residual fitting on the LCS measurement uncertainty. The ordinary least squared regression with fitted residuals and dynamic between reference analyser uncertainty rather than constant ones yielded more realistic LCS measurement uncertainty compared to other options. The MTD is a fast visual tool to extract several pieces of information on evaluation of any candidate method against reference method.
Elsevier
2022
Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
2022
Machine learning-based stocks and flows modeling of road infrastructure
This paper introduces a new method to account for the stocks and flows of road infrastructure at the national level based on material flow accounting (MFA). The proposed method closes some of the current shortcomings in road infrastructures that were identified through MFA: (1) the insufficient implementation of prospective analysis, (2) heavy use of archetypes as a way to represent road infrastructure, (3) inadequate attention to the inclusion of dissipative flows, and (4) limited coverage of the uncertainties. The proposed dynamic bottom-up MFA method was tested on the Norwegian road network to estimate and predict the material stocks and flows between 1980 and 2050. Here, a supervised machine learning model was introduced to estimate the road infrastructure instead of archetypical mapping of different roads. The dissipation of materials from the road infrastructure based on tire–pavement interaction was incorporated. Moreover, this study utilizes iterative classified and regression trees, lifetime distributions, randomized material intensities, and sensitivity analyses to quantify the uncertainties.
John Wiley & Sons
2022
The effect of the 2018 extreme meteorological conditions in Europe on methane (CH4) emissions is examined using estimates from four atmospheric inversions calculated for the period 2005–2018. For most of Europe, we find no anomaly in 2018 compared to the 2005–2018 mean. However, we find a positive anomaly for the Netherlands in April, which coincided with positive temperature and soil moisture anomalies suggesting an increase in biogenic sources. We also find a negative anomaly for the Netherlands for September–October, which coincided with a negative anomaly in soil moisture, suggesting a decrease in soil sources. In addition, we find a positive anomaly for Serbia in spring, summer and autumn, which coincided with increases in temperature and soil moisture, again suggestive of changes in biogenic sources, and the annual emission for 2018 was 33 ± 38% higher than the 2005–2017 mean. These results indicate that CH4 emissions from areas where the natural source is thought to be relatively small can still vary due to meteorological conditions. At the European scale though, the degree of variability over 2005–2018 was small, and there was negligible impact on the annual CH4 emissions in 2018 despite the extreme meteorological conditions.
This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.
2021
Safety assessment of titanium dioxide (E171) as a food additive
The present opinion deals with an updated safety assessment of the food additive titanium dioxide (E 171) based on new relevant scientific evidence considered by the Panel to be reliable, including data obtained with TiO2 nanoparticles (NPs) and data from an extended one-generation reproductive toxicity (EOGRT) study. Less than 50% of constituent particles by number in E 171 have a minimum external dimension < 100 nm. In addition, the Panel noted that constituent particles < 30 nm amounted to less than 1% of particles by number. The Panel therefore considered that studies with TiO2 NPs < 30 nm were of limited relevance to the safety assessment of E 171. The Panel concluded that although gastrointestinal absorption of TiO2 particles is low, they may accumulate in the body. Studies on general and organ toxicity did not indicate adverse effects with either E 171 up to a dose of 1,000 mg/kg body weight (bw) per day or with TiO2 NPs (> 30 nm) up to the highest dose tested of 100 mg/kg bw per day. No effects on reproductive and developmental toxicity were observed up to a dose of 1,000 mg E 171/kg bw per day, the highest dose tested in the EOGRT study. However, observations of potential immunotoxicity and inflammation with E 171 and potential neurotoxicity with TiO2 NPs, together with the potential induction of aberrant crypt foci with E 171, may indicate adverse effects. With respect to genotoxicity, the Panel concluded that TiO2 particles have the potential to induce DNA strand breaks and chromosomal damage, but not gene mutations. No clear correlation was observed between the physico-chemical properties of TiO2 particles and the outcome of either in vitro or in vivo genotoxicity assays. A concern for genotoxicity of TiO2 particles that may be present in E 171 could therefore not be ruled out. Several modes of action for the genotoxicity may operate in parallel and the relative contributions of different molecular mechanisms elicited by TiO2 particles are not known. There was uncertainty as to whether a threshold mode of action could be assumed. In addition, a cut-off value for TiO2 particle size with respect to genotoxicity could not be identified. No appropriately designed study was available to investigate the potential carcinogenic effects of TiO2 NPs. Based on all the evidence available, a concern for genotoxicity could not be ruled out, and given the many uncertainties, the Panel concluded that E 171 can no longer be considered as safe when used as a food additive.
2021
Temporal trends of industrial organic contaminants can show how environmental burdens respond to changes in production, regulation, and other anthropogenic and environmental factors. Numerous studies have documented such trends from the Northern Hemisphere, while there is very limited data in the literature from sub-Saharan Africa. We hypothesized that the temporal trends of legacy and contemporary industrial contaminants in sub-Saharan Africa could greatly differ from the regions in which many of these chemicals were initially produced and more extensively used. For this purpose, a dated sediment core covering six decades from a floodplain system in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, was analysed. The samples were analysed for selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs)] and chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) [alternative brominated flame retardants (aBFRs), chlorinated paraffins (CPs), and dechloranes]. All groups of chemicals showed a steep increase in concentrations towards the uppermost sediment layers reflecting the more recent years. Concentrations of the individual compound groups in surface sediment were found in the order CPs >> aBFRs ∼ ∑25PBDEs > dechloranes ∼ ∑32PCBs. Time trends for the individual compounds and compound groups differed, with ∑32PCBs showing presence in sediments since at least the early 1960s, while some CECs first occurred in sediments corresponding to the last decade. Investigations into potential drivers for the observed trends showed that socioeconomic factors related to growth in population, economy, and waste generation have contributed to increasing concentrations of PBDEs, aBFRs, CPs, and Dechlorane Plus. Further monitoring of temporal trends of industrial organic contaminants in urban areas in the Global South is recommended.
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
The effective enrichment of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in sea spray aerosols (SSA) demonstrated in previous laboratory studies suggests that SSA is a potential source of PFAAs to the atmosphere. In order to investigate the influence of SSA on atmospheric PFAAs in the field, 48 h aerosol samples were collected regularly between 2018 and 2020 at two Norwegian coastal locations, Andøya and Birkenes. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) between the SSA tracer ion, Na+, and PFAA concentrations were observed in the samples from both locations, with Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r) between 0.4–0.8. Such significant correlations indicate SSA to be an important source of atmospheric PFAAs to coastal areas. The correlations in the samples from Andøya were observed for more PFAA species and were generally stronger than in the samples from Birkenes, which is located further away from the coast and closer to urban areas than Andøya. Factors such as the origin of the SSA, the distance of the sampling site to open water, and the presence of other PFAA sources (e.g., volatile precursor compounds) can have influence on the contribution of SSA to PFAA in air at the sampling sites and therefore affect the observed correlations between PFAAs and Na+.
2021
Why is the city's responsibility for its air pollution often underestimated? A focus on PM2.5
While the burden caused by air pollution in urban areas is well documented, the origin of this pollution and therefore the responsibility of the urban areas in generating this pollution are still a subject of scientific discussion. Source apportionment represents a useful technique to quantify the city's responsibility, but the approaches and applications are not harmonized and therefore not comparable, resulting in confusing and sometimes contradicting interpretations. In this work, we analyse how different source apportionment approaches apply to the urban scale and how their building elements and parameters are defined and set. We discuss in particular the options available in terms of indicator, receptor, source, and methodology. We show that different choices for these options lead to very large differences in terms of outcome. For the 150 large EU cities selected in our study, different choices made for the indicator, the receptor, and the source each lead to an average difference of a factor of 2 in terms of city contribution. We also show that temporal- and spatial-averaging processes applied to the air quality indicator, especially when diverging source apportionments are aggregated into a single number, lead to the favouring of strategies that target background sources while occulting actions that would be efficient in the city centre. We stress that methodological choices and assumptions most often lead to a systematic and important underestimation of the city's responsibility, with important implications. Indeed, if cities are seen as a minor actor, plans will target the background as a priority at the expense of potentially effective local actions.
2021
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2021
Aerosol particles are a complex component of the atmospheric system which influence climate directly by interacting with solar radiation, and indirectly by contributing to cloud formation. The variety of their sources, as well as the multiple transformations they may undergo during their transport (including wet and dry deposition), result in significant spatial and temporal variability of their properties. Documenting this variability is essential to provide a proper representation of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in climate models. Using measurements conducted in 2016 or 2017 at 62 ground-based stations around the world, this study provides the most up-to-date picture of the spatial distribution of particle number concentration (Ntot) and number size distribution (PNSD, from 39 sites). A sensitivity study was first performed to assess the impact of data availability on Ntot's annual and seasonal statistics, as well as on the analysis of its diel cycle. Thresholds of 50 % and 60 % were set at the seasonal and annual scale, respectively, for the study of the corresponding statistics, and a slightly higher coverage (75 %) was required to document the diel cycle.
Although some observations are common to a majority of sites, the variety of environments characterizing these stations made it possible to highlight contrasting findings, which, among other factors, seem to be significantly related to the level of anthropogenic influence. The concentrations measured at polar sites are the lowest (∼ 102 cm−3) and show a clear seasonality, which is also visible in the shape of the PNSD, while diel cycles are in general less evident, due notably to the absence of a regular day–night cycle in some seasons. In contrast, the concentrations characteristic of urban environments are the highest (∼ 103–104 cm−3) and do not show pronounced seasonal variations, whereas diel cycles tend to be very regular over the year at these stations. The remaining sites, including mountain and non-urban continental and coastal stations, do not exhibit as obvious common behaviour as polar and urban sites and display, on average, intermediate Ntot (∼ 102–103 cm−3). Particle concentrations measured at mountain sites, however, are generally lower compared to nearby lowland sites, and tend to exhibit somewhat more pronounced seasonal variations as a likely result of the strong impact of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) influence in connection with the topography of the sites. ABL dynamics also likely contribute to the diel cycle of Ntot observed at these stations. Based on available PNSD measurements, CCN-sized particles (considered here as either >50 nm or >100 nm) can represent from a few percent to almost all of Ntot, corresponding to seasonal medians on the order of ∼ 10 to 1000 cm−3, with seasonal patterns and a hierarchy of the site types broadly similar to those observed for Ntot.
Overall, this work illustrates the importance of in situ measurements, in particular for the study of aerosol physical properties, and thus strongly supports the development of a broad global network of near surface observatories to increase and homogenize the spatial coverage of the measurements, and guarantee as well data availability and quality. The results of this study also provide a valuable, freely available and easy to use support for model comparison and validation, with the ultimate goal of contributing to improvement of the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions in models, and, therefore, of the evaluation of the impact of aerosol particles on climate.
2021
2021
As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data are questioning the causality of this relationship.
Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow–NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west-to-east snow depth gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.
2021
2022