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Machine Learning-Based Digital Twin for Predictive Modeling in Wind Turbines
Wind turbines are one of the primary sources of renewable energy, which leads to a sustainable and efficient energy solution. It does not release any carbon emissions to pollute our planet. The wind farms monitoring and power generation prediction is a complex problem due to the unpredictability of wind speed. Consequently, it limits the decision power of the management team to plan the energy consumption in an effective way. Our proposed model solves this challenge by utilizing a 5G-Next Generation-Radio Access Network (5G-NG-RAN) assisted cloud-based digital twins’ framework to virtually monitor wind turbines and form a predictive model to forecast wind speed and predict the generated power. The developed model is based on Microsoft Azure digital twins infrastructure as a 5-dimensional digital twins platform. The predictive modeling is based on a deep learning approach, temporal convolution network (TCN) followed by a non-parametric k-nearest neighbor (kNN) regression. Predictive modeling has two components. First, it processes the univariate time series data of wind to predict its speed. Secondly, it estimates the power generation for each quarter of the year ranges from one week to a whole month (i.e., medium-term prediction) To evaluate the framework the experiments are performed on onshore wind turbines publicly available datasets. The obtained results confirm the applicability of the proposed framework. Furthermore, the comparative analysis with the existing classical prediction models shows that our designed approach obtained better results. The model can assist the management team to monitor the wind farms remotely as well as estimate the power generation in advance.
2022
Health impacts of PM
Residential wood combustion (RWC) is one of the largest sources of fine particles (PM2.5) in the Nordic cities. The current study aims to calculate the related health effects in four studied city areas in Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark.
2022
Background: Positive associations have been reported between persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); however, causality has not been established. Over the last decades, environmental exposure to legacy POPs has decreased, complicating epidemiological studies. In addition, physiological risk factors for T2DM may also influence POP concentrations, contributing to a complex network of factors that could impact associations with T2DM. Longitudinal studies on this topic are lacking, and few have assessed prospective and cross-sectional associations between repeated POP measurements and T2DM in the same individuals, which may shed light on causality.<p> <p>Objectives: To compare longitudinal trends in concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in T2DM cases and controls, and to examine prospective and cross-sectional associations between PCBs, OCPs and T2DM at different time-points before and after T2DM diagnosis in cases. <p>Methods: We conducted a longitudinal, nested case-control study (1986–2016) of 116 T2DM cases and 139 controls from the Tromsø Study. All participants had three blood samples collected before T2DM diagnosis in cases, and up to two samples thereafter. We used linear mixed-effect models to assess temporal changes of POPs within and between T2DM cases and controls, and logistic regression models to investigate the associations between different POPs and T2DM at different time-points. <p>Results: PCBs, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor, oxychlordane, cis-heptachlor epoxide, p,p’-DDE, and p,p’-DDT declined more slowly in cases than controls, whereas β-HCH and HCB declined similarly in both groups. Most POPs showed positive associations between both pre- and post-diagnostic concentrations and T2DM, though effect estimates were imprecise. These associations were most consistent for cis-heptachlor epoxide. <p>Discussion: The observed positive associations between certain POPs and T2DM may be because of higher POP concentrations within prospective T2DM cases, due to slower temporal declines as compared to controls.
2022
2022
The aim of this project was to collect, integrate and analyse observations of climate-relevant aerosol parameters (aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ångstrøm exponent (AE), black carbon (BC)) in and around Svalbard. These observations have been performed at different places and with different instrument types, the analysis procedures of which follow different protocols. Annual merged datasets of AOD, AE and BC have been provided to the SIOS Data Management System and are now available for network-wide use in, e.g., Arctic climate and pollution studies. The analysis of the 2002-2020 data have confirmed earlier results showing a good correlation between measurements in Ny-Ålesund and Hornsund, but not a high degree of short-term agreement due to aerosol variability arising from geographical locations and local conditions. There is also a clear link between the columnar AOD/AE-measurements and in-situ aerosol measurements at Gruvebadet Observatory, while a comparison of in-situ measurements at Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory shows deviations varying with season.
NILU
2022
Organic aerosol (OA) is a key component of total submicron particulate matter (PM1), and comprehensive knowledge of OA sources across Europe is crucial to mitigate PM1 levels. Europe has a well-established air quality research infrastructure from which yearlong datasets using 21 aerosol chemical speciation monitors (ACSMs) and 1 aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) were gathered during 2013–2019. It includes 9 non-urban and 13 urban sites. This study developed a state-of-the-art source apportionment protocol to analyse long-term OA mass spectrum data by applying the most advanced source apportionment strategies (i.e., rolling PMF, ME-2, and bootstrap). This harmonised protocol was followed strictly for all 22 datasets, making the source apportionment results more comparable. In addition, it enables quantification of the most common OA components such as hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA), cooking-like OA (COA), more oxidised-oxygenated OA (MO-OOA), and less oxidised-oxygenated OA (LO-OOA). Other components such as coal combustion OA (CCOA), solid fuel OA (SFOA: mainly mixture of coal and peat combustion), cigarette smoke OA (CSOA), sea salt (mostly inorganic but part of the OA mass spectrum), coffee OA, and ship industry OA could also be separated at a few specific sites. Oxygenated OA (OOA) components make up most of the submicron OA mass (average = 71.1%, range from 43.7 to 100%). Solid fuel combustion-related OA components (i.e., BBOA, CCOA, and SFOA) are still considerable with in total 16.0% yearly contribution to the OA, yet mainly during winter months (21.4%). Overall, this comprehensive protocol works effectively across all sites governed by different sources and generates robust and consistent source apportionment results. Our work presents a comprehensive overview of OA sources in Europe with a unique combination of high time resolution (30–240 min) and long-term data coverage (9–36 months), providing essential information to improve/validate air quality, health impact, and climate models.
2022
To cope with the high number of nanomaterials manufactured, it is essential to develop high-throughput methods for in vitro toxicity screening. At the same time, the issue with interference of the nanomaterial (NM) with the read-out or the reagent of the assay needs to be addressed to avoid biased results. Thus, validated label-free methods are urgently needed for hazard identification of NMs to avoid unintended adverse effects on human health. The colony forming efficiency (CFE) assay is a label- and interference-free method for quantification of cytotoxicity by cell survival and colony forming efficiency by CFE formation. The CFE has shown to be compatible with toxicity testing of NMs. Here we present an optimized protocol for a higher-throughput set up.
2022
Grenseområdene Norge-Russland. Luft- og nedbørkvalitet 2021.
Smelteverkene i nordvest-Russland slapp tidligere ut store mengder svoveldioksid (SO2) og tungmetaller. Utslippene påvirket luft- og nedbørkvalitet i grenseområdene. Smelteverket i Nikel stengte ned 23. desember 2020 og lokal luftkvalitet ble betydelig forbedret. Dog er det fortsatt utslipp fra varmekraftverket i Nikel i den kalde årstiden. Detaljer rundt utslippene fra Zapoljarnyj er ikke kjente. Herværende rapport viser resultatene for kalenderåret 2021, det vil si året etter stengningen. Nivåene av forurensning er lave og grenseverdier og målsettingsverdier er overholdt med klar margin.
NILU
2022
Temporal trends of industrial organic contaminants can show how environmental burdens respond to changes in production, regulation, and other anthropogenic and environmental factors. Numerous studies have documented such trends from the Northern Hemisphere, while there is very limited data in the literature from sub-Saharan Africa. We hypothesized that the temporal trends of legacy and contemporary industrial contaminants in sub-Saharan Africa could greatly differ from the regions in which many of these chemicals were initially produced and more extensively used. For this purpose, a dated sediment core covering six decades from a floodplain system in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, was analysed. The samples were analysed for selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs)] and chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) [alternative brominated flame retardants (aBFRs), chlorinated paraffins (CPs), and dechloranes]. All groups of chemicals showed a steep increase in concentrations towards the uppermost sediment layers reflecting the more recent years. Concentrations of the individual compound groups in surface sediment were found in the order CPs >> aBFRs ∼ ∑25PBDEs > dechloranes ∼ ∑32PCBs. Time trends for the individual compounds and compound groups differed, with ∑32PCBs showing presence in sediments since at least the early 1960s, while some CECs first occurred in sediments corresponding to the last decade. Investigations into potential drivers for the observed trends showed that socioeconomic factors related to growth in population, economy, and waste generation have contributed to increasing concentrations of PBDEs, aBFRs, CPs, and Dechlorane Plus. Further monitoring of temporal trends of industrial organic contaminants in urban areas in the Global South is recommended.
2022
Ingestion of crumb rubber and uptake of associated contaminants in lumpfish (cyclopterus lumpus)
Car tire rubber represents an important source of microplastics, mainly through abrasion of tire dust on roads, but also in the form of crumb rubber (CR) produced from end-of-life vehicle tires that is used in artificial sport fields, playgrounds and other urban surfaces. CR is known to contain a mixture of different organic chemicals and metals. The leachate of tire particles has previously been shown to be toxic to marine invertebrates and some fish species. Here, lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) were exposed to CR particles (2-4 µm) in seawater for 7 days, followed by a 14-day depuration period. Blood samples were collected from the fish, together with the stomach and gut for visual detection of CR in the fish intestines. A comprehensive non-target screening analysis of organic chemical content in the blood was conducted using HRGC/HRMS (Thermofisher, Orbitrap). In addition to the screening, specific focus was given to quantification of N-(1,3-dimethylbutyl)-N'-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine (6PPD) and its degradation product 6PPD-quinone, known toxicants. Tissue samples were also analyzed for metals by ICP-MS. The exposed lumpfish were found to readily ingest CR alongside food under laboratory conditions. The quantity of CR in intestine samples increased during the exposure period, reaching a maximum level directly after the exposure period ended (day 8). A measurable decrease of CR particles was observed throughout the depuration period, although some individuals still contained CR at the end of the depuration period (day 21). The organic chemicals 6PPD and 6PPD-quinone, as well as other CR-related chemicals, were detected in the blood both on day 7 and day 21. No increased in concentration over time was observed for any of the 10 metals were detected in blood of exposed lumpfish. The study confirms that lumpfish actively ingest CR, causing the transfer of CR-related chemicals to the blood.
2022
Hazard identification and safety assessment of the huge variety of nanomaterials (NMs), calls for robust and validated toxicity screening tests in combination with cheminformatics approaches to identify factors that can drive toxicity. Cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of seventeen JRC repository NMs, derived from titanium dioxide, zinc oxide, silver and silica, were tested in vitro using human lung alveolar epithelial cells A549. Cytotoxicity was assessed with the AlamarBlue (AB) and colony forming efficiency (CFE) assays, and genotoxicity by the enzyme-linked version of the comet assay. Nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA) was used to measure size of the NMs in stock and in cell culture medium at different time points. Categorization and ranking of cytotoxic and genotoxic potential were performed (EU-NanoREG2 project approach). Descriptors for prediction of NMs toxicity were identified by quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Our results showed that ZnO NMs (NM-110 and NM-111), and Ag NMs (NM-300K and NM-302) were cytotoxic, while the TiO2 and SiO2 NMs were non-cytotoxic. Regarding genotoxicity, TiO2 NM-100, ZnO NM-110, SiO2 NM-203 and Ag NM-300K were categorized as positive. Cheminformatics modeling identified electron properties and overall chemical reactivity as important descriptors for cytotoxic potential, HOMO-LUMO energy parameter, ionization potential, pristine size for the NMs´ genotoxic potential, and presence of surface coating as descriptor for induction of DNA oxidized base lesions.
2022
Background
Quantitative measurements of cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance has previously not been established for neurological diseases. Possibly, variability in cerebrospinal fluid clearance may affect the underlying disease process and may possibly be a source of under- or over-dosage of intrathecally administered drugs. The aim of this study was to characterize the cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance of the intrathecally administered magnetic resonance imaging contrast agent gadobutrol (Gadovist, Bayer Pharma AG, GE). For this, we established a population pharmacokinetic model, hypothesizing that cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance differs between cerebrospinal fluid diseases.
Methods
Gadobutrol served as a surrogate tracer for extra-vascular pathways taken by several brain metabolites and drugs in cerebrospinal fluid. We estimated cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance in patients with different cerebrospinal fluid disorders, i.e. symptomatic pineal and arachnoid cysts, as well as tentative spontaneous intracranial hypotension due to cerebrospinal fluid leakage, idiopathic intracranial hypertension, or different types of hydrocephalus (idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus, communicating- and non-communicating hydrocephalus). Individuals with no verified cerebrospinal fluid disturbance at clinical work-up were denoted references.
Results
Population pharmacokinetic modelling based on 1,140 blood samples from 161 individuals revealed marked inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic profiles, including differences in absorption half-life (time to 50% of tracer absorbed from cerebrospinal fluid to blood), time to maximum concentration in blood and the maximum concentration in blood as well as the area under the plasma concentration time curve from zero to infinity. In addition, the different disease categories of cerebrospinal fluid diseases demonstrated different profiles.
Conclusions
The present observations of considerable variation in cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance between individuals in general and across neurological diseases, may suggest that defining cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance can become a useful diagnostic adjunct for work-up of cerebrospinal fluid disorders. We also suggest that it may become useful for assessing clearance capacity of endogenous brain metabolites from cerebrospinal fluid, as well as measuring individual cerebrospinal fluid to blood clearance of intrathecal drugs.
2022
The Covid-19 pandemic and environmental stressors in Europe: synergies and interplays
This report provides an overview of the potential impacts of Covid-19 restrictions, in particular, focusing on review and assessment of Covid-19 impacts on air quality, for the year 2020. Complementary analyses address compliance with the National Emission reductions Commitments (NEC) Directive and noise. This expands the initial analysis of impacts of the pandemic-related restrictions on air quality based on data for the first months of 2020, presented in the EEA Air quality report for 2020. The results show a clear decline in NO2 short-term levels and annual average throughout Europe. Results for other pollutants are less uniform, and mostly do not show significant changes in annual average or other relevant metrics . The results regarding air quality are robust, obtained by a wealth of methods and consistent also with literature findings. The noise analysis shows a general decline in noise levels related to road traffic, though some areas show an increase. An analysis of policies and measures reported by Member States in 2021 for base year 2019 shows that additional measures related to emissions of NH3 are expected to be negatively impacted to the greatest extent by the Covid-19 related restrictions.
ETC/ATNI
2022
2022
Atmospheric composition in the European Arctic and 30 years of the Zeppelin Observatory, Ny-Ålesund
The Zeppelin Observatory (78.90∘ N, 11.88∘ E) is located on Zeppelin Mountain at 472 m a.s.l. on Spitsbergen, the largest island of the Svalbard archipelago. Established in 1989, the observatory is part of Ny-Ålesund Research Station and an important atmospheric measurement site, one of only a few in the high Arctic, and a part of several European and global monitoring programmes and research infrastructures, notably the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP); the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW); the Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure (ACTRIS); the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network; and the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS). The observatory is jointly operated by the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Stockholm University, and the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU). Here we detail the establishment of the Zeppelin Observatory including historical measurements of atmospheric composition in the European Arctic leading to its construction. We present a history of the measurements at the observatory and review the current state of the European Arctic atmosphere, including results from trends in greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), other traces gases, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals, aerosols and Arctic haze, and atmospheric transport phenomena, and provide an outline of future research directions.
2022
2022
Earth system and environmental impact studies need high quality and up-to-date estimates of atmospheric deposition. This study demonstrates the methodological benefits of multimodel ensemble and measurement-model fusion mapping approaches for atmospheric deposition focusing on 2010, a year for which several studies were conducted. Global model-only deposition assessment can be further improved by integrating new model-measurement techniques, including expanded capabilities of satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We identify research and implementation priorities for timely estimates of deposition globally as implemented by the World Meteorological Organization.
2022