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2024
2024
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have more than doubled since the beginning of the industrial age, making CH4 the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). The oil and gas sector represents one of the major anthropogenic CH4 emitters as it is estimated to account for 22 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions. An airborne field campaign was conducted in April–May 2019 to study CH4 emissions from offshore gas facilities in the southern North Sea with the aim of deriving emission estimates using a top-down (measurement-led) approach. We present CH4 fluxes for six UK and five Dutch offshore platforms or platform complexes using the well-established mass balance flux method. We identify specific gas production emissions and emission processes (venting and fugitive or flaring and combustion) using observations of co-emitted ethane (C2H6) and CO2. We compare our top-down estimated fluxes with a ship-based top-down study in the Dutch sector and with bottom-up estimates from a globally gridded annual inventory, UK national annual point-source inventories, and operator-based reporting for individual Dutch facilities. In this study, we find that all the inventories, except for the operator-based facility-level reporting, underestimate measured emissions, with the largest discrepancy observed with the globally gridded inventory. Individual facility reporting, as available for Dutch sites for the specific survey date, shows better agreement with our measurement-based estimates. For all the sampled Dutch installations together, we find that our estimated flux of (122.9 ± 36.8) kg h−1 deviates by a factor of 0.64 (0.33–12) from reported values (192.8 kg h−1). Comparisons with aircraft observations in two other offshore regions (the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) show that measured, absolute facility-level emission rates agree with the general distribution found in other offshore basins despite different production types (oil, gas) and gas production rates, which vary by 2 orders of magnitude. Therefore, mitigation is warranted equally across geographies.
2024
The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) in northern China is home to one of the most prominent loess records in the world, reflecting past eolian dust activity in East Asia. However, their interpretation is hampered by ambiguity in the origin of loess-forming dust and an incomplete understanding of the circulation forcing dust accumulation. In this study, we used a novel modeling approach combining a dust emission model FLEXDUST with simulated back trajectories from FLEXPART to trace the dust back to where it was emitted. Over 21 years (1999–2019), we modeled back trajectories for fine (∼2 μm) and super-coarse (∼20 μm) dust particles at six CLP sites during the peak dust storm season from March to May. FLEXPART source-receptor relationships are combined with the dust emission inventory from FLEXDUST to create site-dependent high-resolution maps of the source contribution of deposited dust. The nearby dust emission areas were found to be the main source of dust to the CLP. Dust deposition across the CLP was found to predominantly occur via wet removal, with also some super-coarse dust from distant emission regions being wet deposited following high-level tropospheric transport. The high topography located on the downwind side of the emission area plays an essential role in forcing the emitted super-coarse dust upward. On an interannual scale, the phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the preceding winter was found to have a strong association with the spring deposition rate on the CLP, while the strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon was less influential.
2024
2024
2024
2024
2024
A Quantitative Model of Endogenous Climate Adaptation: Data Challenges, Validation, and Applications
2024
Målinger av SO2 i omgivelsene til Elkem Carbon. Januar 2023 – desember 2023.
På oppdrag fra Elkem Carbon AS har NILU utført målinger av SO2 i omgivelsene til Elkem Carbon i Vågsbygd (Kristiansand kommune). Målingene ble utført med SO2-monitor i boligområdet på Fiskåtangen (Konsul Wilds vei). I tillegg har Elkem Carbon AS valgt å måle med passive SO2-prøvetakere ved 3 steder rundt bedriften. Rapporten dekker målinger i perioden 1. januar – 31. desember 2023. Norske grenseverdier for luftkvalitet (SO2) ble overholdt ved Konsul Wilds vei for alle midlingsperioder (årsmiddel, vintermiddel, døgnmiddel og timemiddel). En døgnmiddelverdi var over nedre vurderingsterskel (50 µg/m3). Passive luftprøver viste at de mest belastede stedene i måleperioden var Konsul Wilds vei nordøst og Fiskåveien rett sør for bedriften.
NILU
2024
An AI-Enhanced Systematic Review of Climate Adaptation Costs: Approaches and Advancements, 2010–2021
This study addresses the critical global challenge of climate adaptation by assessing the inadequacies in current methodologies for estimating adaptation costs. Broad assessments reveal a significant investment shortfall in adaptation strategies, highlighting the necessity for precise cost analysis to guide effective policy-making. By employing the PRISMA 2020 protocol and enhancing it with the prismAId tool, this review systematically analyzes the recent evolution of cost assessment methodologies using state-of-the-art generative AI. The AI-enhanced approach facilitates rapid and replicable research extensions. The analysis reveals a significant geographical and sectoral disparity in research on climate adaptation costs, with notable underrepresentation of crucial areas and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate impacts. The study also highlights a predominant reliance on secondary data and a lack of comprehensive uncertainty quantification in economic assessments, suggesting an urgent need for methodological enhancements. It concludes that extending analyses beyond merely verifying that benefits exceed costs is crucial for supporting effective climate adaptation. By assessing the profitability of adaptation investments, it becomes possible to prioritize these investments not only against similar interventions but also across the broader spectrum of public spending.
2024
2024